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国内外出现了一系列针对"资源之咒"这一问题的实证研究,但从研究方法来看,解释变量的内生性问题没有得到研究者足够的重视。本文的模拟显示,解释变量的内生性问题会导致严重的估计偏误。在对解释变量可能存在的两类内生性问题进行讨论之后,本文运用中国省级面板数据研究了能源资源禀赋对经济增长的影响。本文的实证研究结果表明,中国各地区能源资源禀赋对经济增长存在显著的正面效应,这一正面效应部分是通过促进固定资本积累间接实现的,本文的研究结果不支持"资源之咒"假说。
Abstract：Many empirical studies focused on "the curse of natural resources"have been implemented,most of which confirm this hypothesis.But our simulation shows that the endogeneity of the independent variable can cause serious estimation bias,which calls for a more serious treatment of this problem.After a discussion of three kinds of endogeneity that may exist in the empirical studies,we implement an empirical study concerning the relationship between energy abundance and economic growth using the Chinese data in provincial level.The results show that energy abundance has a very significant positive effect on economic growth in China and part of this effect is passed through fixed capital investment.
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1虽然丁菊红等(2007)在控制了影响经济增长的一系列变量后发现“资源之咒”效应消失,但根据Papyrakis and Gerlagh(2004,2007)的研究逻辑,这仅仅表明“资源之咒”的直接效应不存在,“资源之咒”的总效应是通过影响经济增长的变量间接实现的,自然资源对经济发展的负面效应可能仍然存在。
1为了讨论方便,同时设定β0=0,因为常数项β0数值的大小可以通过调整误差项分布的期望来改变,所以β0的取值不影响后边的模拟结果。
1感谢匿名审稿人的建议。
1 具体分类为:(1)工业生产国,出口产品主要为工业产品的国家;(2)农业生产国,出口产品主要为畜牧产品和谷物的国家;(3)矿产资源国,出口产品主要为石油、煤炭和其他矿产品的国家;(4)咖啡、可可生产国,出口产品主要为咖啡和可可的国家。
2 中国科学院的折算公式是:能源产量=原煤产量×0.714吨标准煤/吨原煤+原油产量×1.43吨标准煤/吨原油+天然气产量×1.33吨标准煤/1000m3。
1感谢匿名审稿人的建议。
1感谢匿名审稿人的建议。
1感谢匿名审稿人的审稿意见。
基本信息:
DOI：10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2015.02.007
中图分类号:F124.5
引用信息:
[1]张德荣.基于内生性视角的“资源之咒”问题研究[J].经济学报,2015,2(02):137-154.DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2015.02.007.
基金信息:
国家社科基金(14BJL026)资助
2015-06-15
2015-06-15