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中国古代经济发展水平究竟如何?各个朝代之间的演变趋势又是如何?还原中国古代经济发展的轨迹是研究中国经济的基础,因此,重构中国古代详实的经济数据,描绘中国历史长时段经济演变图像对于推动经济学领域研究的发展具有重要意义。基于历史国民收入核算方法(Historical National Accounting)估计GDP及经济结构,是当前国际经济史学界一个较为前沿的研究领域。其中,麦迪逊的研究影响最为广泛,但其估算方法和结果都存在一定问题,这引发了清华大学、北京大学等高校一些学者开始对此进行探讨,他们采用历史国民收入核算中的生产法,重构了中国北宋、明和清三个朝代的人均GDP及经济结构数据,对Maddison较为粗略的估算进行了补充和改进。研究结果有如下三点发现:其一,中国GDP年增长率北宋、明代和清代分别为0.88%、0.25%和0.36%,人均GDP在经历了北宋和明代较高水平的波动之后,清代进入了下降的轨迹;其二,北宋时中国的生活水平领先于世界,但是在1300年之前已经落后于意大利。虽然中国的部分富裕地区仍与欧洲的经济发达地区处于同一发展水平,但是在1750年之前,中国作为整体与欧洲的差距越来越大,"大分流"实际上在工业革命之前已经发生了;其三,最新研究成果的估算数据发现,Maddison的研究成果存在较大的偏差。本文综述历史国民收入核算的最新文献,重点在各国学者将国民收入核算的一般原则与本国历史数据结合估计历史GDP的具体方法、估计结果与此前Maddison估计的差异,并基于历史GDP数据追溯各国经济发展的轨迹,及阐释东西方经济分流的原因。
Abstract：What was the level of economic development in ancient China and how did the cycle of prosperity and decline change throughout history?It seems certain that a systematic review of ancient China's development is the very foundation for the studies of nation's economy.As a result,a comprehensive restoration and mapping of ancient China's economic data is of fundamental importance in advancing relevant research.Estimation of GDP and economic structure,based on Historical National Accounting,is a frontier in the area international economic research.Maddison's research,in this regard,is most well-known but problems in method and final outcome has led to a review and re-calculation from scholars of Peking and Tsinghua University.They worked on the output method of the Historical National Accounting to revise Maddison's findings and reconstructed data of GDP per capita in China's Northern Song Dynasty,Ming Dynasty and Qing Dynasty.Major findings from their work are as follow:1-Annual GDP growth in the 3 dynasties above were 0.88%,0.25% and 0.36% respectively and has experienced a downturn in Qing after fluctuating at a high level in Song and Ming.2-It is suggested that although people in Song Dynasty were of higher livelihood standard than their counterparts in most of the world,they fall behind the Italians before 14 th century.Despite the fact that wealthier part of China remained much of the same as of similar regions in Europe,the gap between the nation and Europe,as a whole,has been increasingly widening before mid-18 th century-Great Divergence happened actually before the Industrial Revolution.3-According to latest research,Maddison's work was found to be less accurate and precise to some extent.Consequently,this paper,while covering relevant literature,is focused on specific method which combines Historical National Accounting and historical data in each country as well as different outcomes compared with Maddison's.Moreover,it also tends to explain reasons of the Great Divergence based on GDP record of different countries in history.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2017.02.002
中图分类号:F129
引用信息:
[1]李稻葵,金星晔,管汉晖.中国历史GDP核算及国际比较:文献综述[J],2017,4(02):14-36.DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2017.02.002.
基金信息:
国家社科基金重大项目(批准号:15ZDB130);国家社科基金一般项目(批准号:13BJL016)