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本文采用Bergstrand et al.(2015)的研究框架，纳入Anderson et al.(2018)异质性边界拓展，对含有区域贸易协定(RTAs)的结构引力模型进行了拓展。通过2000—2014年29个国家的服务贸易数据进行实证分析，旨在探究全球化和区域贸易协定对服务贸易流量的影响，并打开了异质性同一地区效应的“黑箱”。研究发现：首先，异质性同一地区效应极大吸收了全球化效应和RTAs效应：在控制异质性同一地区效应的情况下，全球化效应消失，RTAs约为20%。其次，双边天然联系变量作用的呈现波动情况，歧视性贸易成本的作用仍然没有呈现显著下降。最后，异质性同一地区效应显著受到本国制度质量的影响。本文的研究有助于理解在服务贸易中区域贸易协定与全球化的关系，并为中国的全球化战略提供政策思考。
Abstract：This study adopts the research framework of Bergstrand et al.(2015) and incorporates the heterogeneity of borders proposed by Anderson et al.(2018) to extend the structural gravity model with regional trade agreements(RTAs). By conducting empirical analysis using service trade data from 29 countries during the period of 2000 to 2014, the study aims to explore the effects of globalization and RTAs on service trade flows, as well as to uncover the “black box” of heterogeneity and same-region effects. The findings of the study are as follows: Firstly, the heterogeneity of same-region effects absorbs a significant portion of the effects of globalization and RTAs. When controlling for heterogeneity of same-region effects, the globalization effect vanishes, while the effect of RTAs remains at around 20%. Secondly, the role of bilateral natural connectivity variables exhibits fluctuations, and the impact of discriminatory trade costs does not show a significant decline. Lastly, the heterogeneity of same-region effects is significantly influenced by the quality of domestic institutions. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between regional trade agreements and globalization in service trade and provides policy implications for China's strategies in globalization.
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(1)通过加入时变固定效应来控制多边阻力的方法,可以有效纠正引力模型中的“金牌错误”(gold medal mistake),但是会吸收90%以上的进(出)口国家的个体特征和不可观测效应。因此,在使用时变固定效应的结构引力模型中加入单个国家的变量(如GDP、全球化指数)是徒劳的。更多细节见Anderson (2011)。
(2)实际上这里使用的是边界效应的另一种设置方法,即“同一地区效应”的设置方法。更多细节见Anderson and Yotov (2010b)。
(3)为了简便,后文将“国际相对国内贸易成本”都称为“相对贸易成本”。
(4)计算公式为:国内贸易时定义为■,随后按人口加权方式得到人口加权的距离;■。其中,popk是指与i国进行贸易的k个国家的聚类人口总和,popl是指与j国进行贸易的l个国家的聚类人口总和,而Distkl是k聚类和i聚类的经度距离。具体见Mayer and Zignago(2011)。
(5)其NACE代码包括:F、G45、G46、G47、H49、H50、H51、H52、H53、I、J58、J59_J60、J61、J62_J63、K64、K65、K66、L68、M69_M70、M71、M72、M73、M74_M75、N、O84、P85、Q、R_S、T、U。本文未能将各个服务行业的代码与贸易流量代码的对应上,从而丧失了更细微考察服务贸易的机会。为了详细说明这一点,OECD统计数据库在2010年开始采用了新的统计体系EBPOS2010(Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification 2010)(United,2010)(本条文献在文后文献中未体现)。而联合国服务贸易统计司未提供新的代码转变方式,即没有将ISIC4 与 EBPOS2010的统计方式对应起来,因此本文没有办法将两种统计口径的数据按照行业进行匹配。
(6)http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp。
(7)http://www.dartmouth.edu/～tradedb/index.php。
(8)Silva and Tenreyro (2006)指出使用OLS估计量,会忽略詹森不等式的存在,从而得到不一致的系数估计。而使用伪泊松最大似然估计(Poission pseudo-MLE,PPML)和伽马伪似然最大估计(Gamma PML),可以一定程度上解决贸易零值问题和詹森不等式问题 (Santos Silva and Tenreyro,2010,2011)。Fally (2015)在对比OLS法、PPML估计量以及Gamma估计量中发现,使用PPML法会为加入了国内流量的引力方程提供一致的参数估计。同时,本文使用的是Larch et al.(2019)所提供的高维度PPML程序包。
(9)用连续年份面板数据进行引力模型拟合是广受批评的,引力估计量在短时间内反应迟缓,因而会给政策效应评估带来潜在的不确定性Trefler (2004),因此,参照 (Yotov et al.,2016)的研究,以2000年为起点,使用4年为间隔。
(10)即当国内贸易时,国内贸易距离不为零,而是按照本页脚注④的方式定义国内贸易距离。
(11)加入国家对固定效应是引力模型中控制双边偏误的最强方式,它控制了双边贸易中所有不随时间改变而改变的因素。但是,由于多重共线性的存在,不能够同时估计所有地区随时间改变的同一地区效应;于是,在估计异质性边界时,无法加入国家对固定效应。
(12)由于多重共线性问题,在考虑异质性同一地区效应时,回归时总是需要将一个年份作为基准。为了便于比较,总是选择将最早年份的同一地区效应作为基准,比如,在表5中将2000年的同一地区效应作为基准。
(13)这里假设区域贸易协定较少地影响国内制度,即讨论是一种浅的贸易一体化协定,更多讨论见Maggi(2014)。
(14)实际上深度一体化协定是一种歧视性贸易政策,但是,它对成员国内规制的要求也会降低非歧视性贸易成本。
基本信息:
DOI：
中图分类号:F744;F746.18;F114.41
引用信息:
[1]蒋芊,李雨浓,汪涛.全球化、区域贸易协定与服务贸易[J].经济学报,2024,11(04):34-59.
基金信息:
广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“广西发展战略研究院”课题(2020GDSIYB09); 成都西南财大交子金融科技创新研究院(项目号:cgzh20210202); 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803159)的资助