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对外贸易高质量发展是“十四五”时期的重要任务，本文为党中央新发展格局的构建和中日贸易的进一步发展提供了一定的政策建议。依据山东省党史研究室统计的各县(市、区)在抗日战争期间遇难人员的详细信息，本文采用双重差分模型考察了抗日战争期间山东省各县(市、区)遇难者人数是否仍旧影响当今山东各行业企业对日贸易。结果表明，若各县(市、区)遇难者人数增加1%,则各县(市、区)与日本在行业层面上的贸易总额和进口额将分别减少0.239%和0.366%,而出口额没有受到显著影响。我们发现遇难者人数对贸易的负面影响在中日政治关系紧张时显著增强。进一步的分析结果显示，年轻遇难者占比显著增加其对贸易总额和进口额的抑制效应。此外，国有企业和全要素生产率更高行业的企业进口额受抗日战争的负面影响更大。最后，本文的稳健性检验显示死难者人数对贸易的负面影响只存在于中日贸易中。
Abstract：High-quality development of foreign trade is an important task during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. This paper provides certain policy suggestions for the further development of Sino-Japanese trade and the construction of a new development pattern of the Party Central Committee. According to the statistics of the Shandong Provincial Party History Research Office, the detailed information of the people killed in each county(cities, districts) during the Second Sino-Japanese War, this paper uses a difference-in-differences model to examine whether the number of victims in each county(cities, districts) of Shandong Province during the Second Sino-Japanese War has an impact on the trade between Shandong enterprises in various industries and Japan. The results show that if the number of victims in each county(city, district) increases by 1%, the total trade and import value between each county(city, district) and Japan at the industry level will decrease by 0.239% and 0.366%, respectively, the export value was not significantly affected. We found that the negative impact of the number of victims on trade increased significantly when the political relationship between China and Japan was tense. Further analysis showed that the proportion of young victims significantly increased its inhibitory effect on total trade and imports. In addition, the imports of state-owned enterprises and enterprises in industries with higher total factor productivity were more negatively affected by the Second Sino-Japanese War. Finally, the robustness test of this paper shows that the negative impact of the number of victims on trade only exists in Sino-Japanese trade.
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(1)见https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War
(2)遇难者指抗日战争期间因日本发动侵略战争,在山东境内造成死难的平民。
(3)目前据我们所知,只有山东省统计了抗日战争时期各区、县的具体遇难人员信息。
(4)参见人民网报道:https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1725680877528897163&wfr=spider&for=pc
(5)去除的七个地区为:青岛市城阳区、潍坊市潍城区、泰安市岱宗区、日照市东港区、日照市岚山区、莱芜市莱城区和临沂市兰山区。
(6)人口数据来源于统计年鉴中的年末总人口,采用人口抽样调查推算和公安户籍统计得到。
(7)http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/pwt/pwt-8.1
(8)国家GDP选用了按支出法统计的实际GDP(以2005年为基准平减,数据中变量名为rgdpe)
(9)后文中关系模型系数的解释均是在商品层次上的。
(10)见新闻报道:http://news.china.com/zh_cn/history/all/11025807/20050325/12195005.html
(11)http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-01/12/content_5256134.htm。
(12)为了比较分样本log(Death)×Japan显著系数间差异,本文通过自体抽样(Bootstrap)1000次得到经验p值。
(13)Davis and Meunier(2014)研究发现在中国,国企的进口额受到政治关系的负面影响比私企更大,而在出口额上这一关系不明显。
(14)我们也研究了企业水平上,按照TFP高低分组回归的结果。该结果与文中一致,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(15)本文遵循模型设定(7)还采用40岁以下年轻死难者比例高低的虚拟变量与死难者人数、日本虚拟变量的三重交互项进行异质性分析,结果保持一致。
(16)可见http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/COE/Japanese/discussionpapers/DP97.9/fhyo4.htm。
(17)鉴于本文数据不适用于空间溢出效应模型,所以未给出相关稳健性检验结果。
基本信息:
DOI：
中图分类号:F752.7;F753.13;K265
引用信息:
[1]车翼,吕金秋,徐巡等.鉴古问今，抗日战争对中日贸易的长期影响——基于山东省企业层面数据的经验分析[J].经济学报,2024,11(03):96-125.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（72073095）; 华东理工大学探索研究基金项目和华东理工大学研究生教育教学改革研究项目的资助; 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题（2023BJB010）; 中央高校基本科研业务费数字经济高质量发展的特征及驱动策略研究项目（2023110139）; 上海重点智库课题的资助