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本文研究了在样本时期长度T不大的情况下,如何对空间动态面板模型进行估计和统计推断。通过对初始值的设定,本文研究了在固定效应和随机效应模型设定下如何进行准最大似然估计。通过使用该计量方法对中国城市增长收敛性进行研究,我们发现中国城市经济增长呈条件收敛,且外溢效应显著。相较于动态面板模型下的估计,利用空间动态面板模型考虑外溢效应后,城市经济增长收敛速度显著提高。
Abstract：This paper investigates the estimation and statistical inference of spatial dynamic panel data model when sample period T is short. By specifying initial conditions,we explore the quasi-maximum likelihood( QML) estimation under both fixed effects and random effects specifications. We then investigate the growth convergence among Chinese cities using this econometric technique. We find that the spillover effect is significant factors. Comparing to estimation using dynamic panel data model,the convergence rate is much higher after allowing the spillover effect under the spatial dynamic panel data model.
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(1)在这里,我们主要考虑条件收敛而非绝对收敛。因为各个城市之间自然禀赋、文化等存在着一定的差异,所以它们的经济均衡水平很有可能会有所不同,而绝对收敛则是指各个经济体发展达到相同的均衡水平。在实际操作方面,我们在模型里面考虑了个体效应,允许各个城市的均衡发展水平有所不同,因此我们的实证结果研究的是条件收敛,而不是绝对收敛。
(2)另一支文献则从统计的角度来理解增长的收敛性,比如吴强和彭方平(2007)提出的我国经济增长收敛性具有“门槛效应”。他们应用动态门槛面板模型对我国经济增长的收敛性进行了检验,发现我国各省经济增长率在收敛速度上存在显著的人均收入1007元的门槛效应,而突破低收入门槛之后,各省的经济增长趋向收敛。
(3)对于δ里的β元素,其相应的得分向量将被简化为■。
(4)由于篇幅关系,Ωw,nT的具体公式不在此给出,感兴趣的读者可联系通讯作者得到推导过程和具体公式。
基本信息:
DOI：10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20200319.002
中图分类号:F224;F299.2
引用信息:
[1]宋晓军,李曦纳,虞吉海.空间动态短面板的估计及中国城市经济增长收敛性的分析[J].经济学报,2020,7(01):38-59.DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20200319.002.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金(No.71925006,No.71973005)的资助