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本文基于1997—2020年的全球投入产出表，建立中国、美国和世界其他地区的三经济体投入产出模型，分析国内乘数效应、国家间反馈效应和溢出效应对中美两国实际产出和产出增长影响的中长期变化特征。结果表明，国内乘数效应解释了中美80%以上的产出增长，但经济体间的溢出效应已成为一个不容忽视的影响因素；三类效应系数显示中国国内产业间的关联能力以及与外部的关联能力均强于美国。同时中国的产出增长更多地依赖于三类系数的变动，而美国更多地依赖其自身最终品生产规模的变动；对溢出效应的进一步考察发现，中国对美国的溢出性影响在上升，美国对中国的溢出性影响在下降，而中国与世界其他经济体间的相互溢出性影响在双双上升，这一特征在细分的8大类产业上也有所表现。未来中美经济“脱钩断链”的风险仍然较大，强化中国与世界其他经济体的经济关联是中国经济持续健康发展的必由之路。
Abstract：This paper constructs a three-economy input-output model for China, the United States, and the rest of the world based on Global Input-Output Tables from 1997 to 2020, analyzing the medium- and long-term change characteristics of domestic multiplier effects, inter-country feedback effects, and spillover effects on the real output and output growth of China and the United States. The results show that domestic multiplier effects explain more than 80% of output growth in both countries, but inter-economy spillover effects have become a non-negligible influencing factor. The three types of effect coefficients indicate that China's domestic industrial linkages and external connectivity are stronger than those of the United States. Additionally, China's output growth relies more on changes in the three types of coefficients, while the United States depends more on changes in its own final goods production scale. Further analysis of spillover effects reveals that China's spillover impact on the United States is increasing, while the U.S. spillover impact on China is decreasing, and the mutual spillover effects between China and the rest of the world are both strengthening. These characteristics are also evident across the eight primary industrial sectors. In the future, the risk of economic “decoupling” between China and the United States remains high, and strengthening economic ties between China and other global economies is a necessary path for China's sustained and healthy economic development.
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(1)限于篇幅,8大类产业与44个行业的分类对照表可向作者求索。
(2)由于一国关于另一国的感应度系数就是另一国对该国的扩散度系数,我们只分析扩散度系数的变动特征。
(3)表中,列向表示某经济体对其他经济体的扩散度系数,即施加影响的一方,横向国家表示受到影响的一方。
(4)GDP平减指数来自世界银行。
(5)具体说来,就是美国对中国的扩散度系数或中国对美国的感应度系数。
(6)1997—2020年间中美两国8大产出总产出的变化情况可向作者求索。
(7)图1中每个产业的从左到右的3个“柱”分别对应3个时间段。
(8)以1997年不变价计,2007—2017年间,美国的重制造业最终品实际产出年均下降1.2%,采掘业、建筑业、水电气供应业的实际最终品产出也分别年均下降了1.0%、1.3%、1.1%;而世界其他经济体重制造业最终品的实际产出规模下降了1.2%,采掘业、建筑业、水电气供应业以及生产性服务业最终产出也分别下降了1.2%、1.1%、1.2%、1.1%(8大类产业合计的实际最终产出规模年均下降0.84%)。2017—2020年间,美国采掘业、轻制造业、重制造业最终产出年均下降3.2%、1.5%、2.6%;世界其他经济体8大类产业最终品产出规模均呈现下降态势,合计的实际最终产出年均下降1.11%。
(9)2017—2020年间,中国只有采掘业与轻制造业最终品产出规模有所下降(分别年均下降3.8%与1.9%),其他产业仍是上升的;而世界其他经济体的8大类产业都呈现最终品产出规模下降的态势(年均下降幅度在1.1%～2.0%之间)。
(10)只有在1997—2007年间对美国的生产性服务业、生活性服务业产生正向溢出性影响。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F171.2;F125
引用信息:
[1]潘文卿,张文清,郝远航.中美经济发展：关联特征与溢出效应变迁[J].经济学报,2025,12(04):1-19.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目“全球价值链与国内价值链:中国在‘双循环’中的获益与贡献研究”(项目编号:72173071);“高维计量模型的机器学习方法及其在经济管理中的应用”(项目编号:72133002)的资助