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存货波动是解释中国经济变动的重要变量，存货管理是企业面对外生冲击时调整生产决策的关键渠道。近年来，中国不断鼓励扩大对外开放水平，稳步推进各项对外开放政策，贸易自由化水平显著提高。鉴于此，探讨贸易自由化背景下企业的存货调整具有重要的现实意义。本文基于中国加入WTO的准自然实验和1999—2008年中国制造业企业数据，采用双重差分法研究了贸易自由化对企业非产成品存货的影响。研究发现：(1)贸易自由化显著降低了制造业企业的非产成品存货水平且结果稳健。(2)贸易自由化主要通过外来产品挤压本土企业市场需求、降低中间品购买难度两个渠道促使企业减少非产成品存货储备。(3)贸易自由化对小规模企业、非国有企业、轻工业企业和出口企业造成的影响更大。企业应积极利用贸易壁垒降低带来的发展契机，合理调整存货储备以提高企业资源利用率，进而增强企业盈利能力。
Abstract：Inventory fluctuations are an important variable in explaining changes in China's economy, and inventory management is a key channel for firms to adjust their production decisions in the face of exogenous shocks. In recent years, China has been encouraging the expansion of the level of openness to the outside world, steadily promoting various foreign opening policies and significantly increasing the level of trade liberalization. In view of this, it is of great practical significance to explore the inventory adjustment of enterprises in the context of trade liberalization. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of China's WTO accession and the data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 1999—2008, this paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on enterprises' inventory of non-finished goods using the double-difference method. It is found that i) trade liberalization significantly reduces the level of non-finished goods inventory of manufacturing firms, and the results are robust. ii) Trade liberalization contributes to the reduction of firms' non-finished goods inventory stock mainly through two channels: market demand squeeze on local firms by foreign products and reduced difficulty in purchasing intermediate goods. iii) Trade liberalization has had a greater impact on small-scale, non-State-owned, light industrial and exporting enterprises. Enterprises should actively take advantage of the development opportunities brought by the lowering of trade barriers and reasonably adjust their inventory reserves to improve their resource utilization and thus enhance their profitability.
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(1)过期风险和降价风险需要结合行业特点分析,与保质期相连的行业需要承担更大的过期风险,技术迭代较快的行业需要承担更多的降价风险。
(2)Blinder和Maccini(1991)的研究表明美国企业库存中 80%以上为非产成品库存;本文通过计算得出,在1999—2008年中国制造业企业的非产品库存占比也达到了 64.33%。
(3)具体条款来自《中国加入世界贸易组织议定书附件8:第152号减让表》。
(4)浙江、上海、山东、江苏、天津、广东、辽宁、福建、河北、广西、海南为沿海地区,其他为内陆地区。
(5)四位行业代码目录参照国家统计局 2002 年《国民经济行业分类》国家标准(GB/T 4754—2002)。
(6)为尽量保留原有观测值,文中将非产成品存货规模加1之后再做对数处理。
(7)数据库链接:http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx
(8)企业规模用ln(企业从业人员数)衡量、出口强度采用ln(出口交货值+1/企业总资本)表示、资本密集度采用ln(固定资产合计/企业雇佣人数)表示、企业年龄采用ln(数据年份-企业成立年份+1)表示。
(9)具体分类标准参照特征事实分析部分。
(10)具体分类标准参照特征事实分析部分。
基本信息:
DOI：
中图分类号:F752;F425;F274
引用信息:
[1]蒋灵多,赵晓静,简紫晴.贸易自由化是否有效推动企业存货调整[J].经济学报,2024,11(03):37-67.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（72373023）;国家自然科学基金青年项目（71903029）的资助