| 937 | 11 | 1843 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
中国企业在全球积累了大量的国际并购经验，这些并购经验是否带来了学习效应以及学习效应背后的机制是什么?本文基于BVD Zephyr国际并购数据使用匹配法和工具变量法发现，企业个体的并购经验带来学习效应，具有国别层面成功并购经验的企业比不具有相应经验企业的并购成功率高3.2%,但失败境外并购经验对于后续并购成功率无显著影响。经验之所以能提升后续并购成功率，主要是因为企业掌握了克服特定制度困境的能力，若下次并购目标的所在国也存在类似制度特征，其有更大概率找到破局之道。在经验带来的多种克服制度障碍的能力中，中国企业又以克服政局稳定和监管质量风险的能力最为明显。尽管地缘相近国家大概率共享历史渊源，文化语言也相近，源于同区域国家的并购经验往往直觉上被认为能够提高后续并购成功率，但实证结果对此并不支持。因此，企业需审慎、辩证地对待既往并购经验。
Abstract：Chinese multinationals have accumulated a lot of international M&A experience around the world. Does the M&A experience bring a learning effect and what is the mechanism behind the learning effect? Based on Bvd Zephyr global M&A dataset, by using the propensity score matching method and instrumental variable method, this paper confirms that the M&A experience accumulated by enterprises brings a learning effect, and the M&A success rate of enterprises with international M&A experience is 33% higher than that of enterprises without experience. The experience of international M&A attempts but unsuccessful in equity delivery(i.e. failed M&A experience) has little impact on subsequent M&A success rate. The reason why experience can improve the success rate of subsequent M&A is mainly due to the fact that through completing a transaction, an enterprise has mastered the ability to overcome a specific institutional obstacle(e.g. government low efficiency, political instability, etc.). When the target enterprise of the subsequent merger and acquisition is located in a country with similar institutional difficulties, this enterprise has a greater probability of successfully solving the problem or solving the problem faster. Although geographically close countries usually have similar historical origins, cultures, and similar languages, M&A experience from countries in the same region is often intuitively believed to improve the success rate of subsequent M&A. Still, empirical results do not support this argument. The policy suggestion that can be derived is that enterprises should treat their past M&A experience prudently and dialectically. On the one hand, in due diligence, it is necessary to clarify the types and levels of the main institutional risks of the country where the target is located and decide whether to draw on the existing experience based on whether the two are similar. On the other hand, it should be noted that although some countries share geographical borders, historical origins, and even the same language, years of independent development have led to significant heterogeneity in the introduction of foreign investment policies, and the merger experience derived from neighboring countries is likely not applicable to another country.
白洁，苏庆义.2020.《美墨加协定》:特征、影响及中国应对[J].国际经济评论，(6):123-138.Bai J,Sun Q Y.2020.The United States-Mexico-Canada agreement:Characteristics,impact and China's response[J].International Economic Review,(6):123-138.(in Chinese)
范黎波，马聪聪，周英超.2016.中国企业跨国并购学习效应的实证研究——经验学习和替代学习的视角[J].财贸经济，37(10):102-116.Fan L B,Ma C C,Zhou Y C.2016.Experiential learning and vicarious learning:An empirical study of Chinese enterprises cross-border M & A learning effect[J].Finance & Trade Economics,37(10):102-116.(in Chinese)
贾镜渝，李文.2015.经验与中国企业跨国并购成败——基于非相关经验与政府因素的调节作用[J].世界经济研究，(8):48-58,128.Jia J Y,Li W.2015.Experience and success of chinese cross-border acquisitions:Moderating role of non-related experience and government factors[J].World Economy Study,(8):48-58,128.(in Chinese)
贾镜渝，李文，郭斌.2015.经验是如何影响中国企业跨国并购成败的——基于地理距离与政府角色的视角[J].国际贸易问题，(10):87-97.Jia J Y,Li W,Guo B.2015.Influence of prior experience on chinese firms' cross-border acquisitions:A study from perspective of geographic distance and government's role[J].Journal of International Trade,(10):87-97.(in Chinese)
贾镜渝，孟妍.2022.经验学习、制度质量与国有企业海外并购[J].南开管理评论，25(3):49-61.Jia J Y,Meng Y.2022.Experiential learning,institutional quality and Chinese SOEs' cross-border acquisitions[J].Nankai Business Review,22(3):49-61.(in Chinese)
江艇.2022.因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应[J].中国工业经济，(5):100-120.Jiang T.2022.Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference[J].China Industrial Economics,(5):100-120.(in Chinese)
刘慧，綦建红.2015.异质性OFDI企业序贯投资存在区位选择的“路径依赖”吗[J].国际贸易问题，(8):123-134.Liu H,Qi J H.2015.Path dependence in location choice of sequential investment of heterogeneous OFDI firms[J].Journal of International Trade,(8):123-134.(in Chinese)
刘勰，孟勇.2019.制度距离与我国企业海外并购效率[J].经济管理，41(12):22-39.Liu X,Meng Y.2019.A study on institutional distance and duration of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by Chinese firms[J].Economic Management Journal,41(12):22-39.(in Chinese)
潘镇，鲁明泓.2006.在华外商直接投资进入模式选择的文化解释[J].世界经济，(2):51-61.Pan Z,Lu M H.2006.A cultural explanation for the choice of foreign direct investment entry modes in China[J].World Economy,(2):51-61.(in Chinese)
綦建红，刘慧.2015.以往经验会影响OFDI企业序贯投资的区位选择吗——来自中国工业企业的证据[J].经济理论与经济管理，(10):100-112.Qi J H,Liu H.2015.Is previous experience relevant for location choice of sequential investment—Evidence from China's industrial enterprises[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,(10):100-112.(in Chinese)
綦建红，杨丽.2014.文化距离与我国企业OFDI的进入模式选择——基于大型企业的微观数据检验[J].世界经济研究，(6):55-61+88-9.Qi J H,Yang L.2014.Cultural distance and OFDI entry mode choice of Chinese enterprises:A study based on the test of large enterprises' micro-data[J].World Economy Study,(6):55-61+88-9.(in Chinese)
肖芳.2011.《里斯本条约》与欧盟成员国国际投资保护协定的欧洲化[J].欧洲研究，29(3):93-110,161.Xiao F.2011.The Lisbon treaty and the europeanization of EU member states' international investment agreements[J].Chinese Journal of European Studies,29(3):93-110,161.(in Chinese)
薛求知.2001.全球学习效应：跨国公司行为新解释[J].复旦学报(自然科学版),40(2):184-189.Xue Q Z.2001.Global learning effect:A new aproach to the multinational enterprises' conducts[J].Journal of Fudan University (Natural Science),40(2):184-189.(in Chinese)
薛求知，帅佳旖.2019.制度距离、经验效应与对外直接投资区位选择——以中国制造业上市公司为例[J].中国流通经济，33(8):80-90.Xue Q Z,Shuai J Y.2019.Institutional distance,the effect of experience,and OFDI location choice—Taking China's listed manufacturing companies as an example[J].China Business and Market,33(8):80-90.(in Chinese)
阎大颖.2013.中国企业对外直接投资的区位选择及其决定因素[J].国际贸易问题，(7):128-135.Yan D Y.2013.Location choice of China's outward FDI firms and the decisive factors[J].Journal of International Trade,(7):128-135.(in Chinese)
殷华方，鲁明泓.2011.文化距离和国际直接投资流向：S型曲线假说[J].南方经济，(1):26-38.Yin H F,Lu M H.2011.Cultural distance and foreign direct investment flows:The S-curve hypothesis[J].South China Journal of Economics,(1):26-38.(in Chinese)
Argote L,Epple D.1990.Learning curves in manufacturing[J].Science,247(4945):920-924.
Baum J A C,Dahlin K B.2007.Aspiration performance and railroads' patterns of learning from train wrecks and crashes[J].Organization Science,18(3):368-385.
Bj?rkman I.1989.Foreign direct investments:An empirical analysis of decision making in seven finnish firms[Z].Helsingfors:Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration.
Buckley P J,Clegg L J,Cross A R,et al.2007.The determinants of chinese outward foreign direct investment[J].Journal of International Business Studies,38(4):499-518.
Chuang Y T,Baum J A C.2003.It's all in the name:Failure-induced learning by multiunit chains[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,48(1):33-59.
Collins J D,Holcomb T R,Certo S T,et al.2009.Learning by doing:Cross-border mergers and acquisitions[J].Journal of Business Research,62(12):1329-1334.
Davidson W H.1980.The location of foreign direct investment activity:Country characteristics and experience effects[J].Journal of International Business Studies,11(2):9-22.
Dikova D,Sahib P R,van Witteloostuijn A.2010.Cross-border acquisition abandonment and completion:The effect of institutional differences and organizational learning in the international business service industry,1981—2001[J].Journal of International Business Studies,41(2):223-245.
Field L C,Mkrtchyan A.2017.The effect of director experience on acquisition performance[J].Journal of Financial Economics,123(3):488-511.
Hitt M A,Keats B W,Demarie S M.1998.Navigating in the new competitive and scape:Building strategic flexibility and competitive advantage in the 21st century[J].Academy of Management Perspectives,12(4):22-42.
Johanson J,Wiedersheim-Paul F.1975.The Internationalization of the firm—Four swedish cases[J].Journal of Management Studies,12(3):305-323.
Johanson J,Vahlne J E.1977.The internationalization process of the firm—A model of knowledge development and increasing foreign market commitments[J].Journal of International Business Studies,8(1):23-32.
Johanson J,Vahlne J E.1990.The mechanisms of internationalization[J].International Marketing Review,7(4):11-24.
Lant T K,Mezias S J.1992.An organizational learning model of convergence and reorientation[J].Organization Science,3(1):47-71.
Levitt B,March J G.1988.Organizational learning[J].Annual Review of Sociology,14:319-338.
Lubatkin M H.1982.A market model analysis of diversification strategies and administrative experience on the performance of merging firms[D].Knoxville:University of Tennessee.
Lubatkin M H.1983.Mergers and the performance of the acquiring firm[J].Academy of Management Review,8(2):218-225.
Madsen P M,Desai V.2010.Failing to learn?The effects of failure and success on organizational learning in the global orbital launch vehicle industry[J].Academy of Management Journal,53(3):451-476.
March J G,Simon H A.1958.Organizations[M].New York:Wiley,1958.
Miner A S,Haunschild P R.1995.Population-level learning[J].Research in Organizational Behavior:An Annual Series of Analytical Essays and Critical Reviews,17:115-166.
Morris M W,Moore P C.2000.The lessons we (don't) learn:Counterfactual thinking and organizational accountability after a close call[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,45(4):737-765.
Narula R.2012.Do we need different frameworks to explain infant mnes from developing countries?[J].Global Strategy Journal,2(3):188-204.
Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.1985.Constructing a control group using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score[J].The American Statistician,39(1):33-38.
Sitkin S B,Pablo A L.1992.Reconceptualizing the determinants of risk behavior[J].The Academy of Management Review,17(1):9-38.
Vermeulen F,Barkema H.2001.Learning Through Acquisitions[J].Academy of Management Journal,44(3):457-476.
Yamakawa Y,Peng M W,Deeds D L.2015.Rising from the ashes:Cognitive determinants of venture growth after entrepreneurial failure[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,39(2):209-236.
(1)首钢在2009年收购了秘鲁的科布里萨(Cobriza)铜矿并在2017年对收购多年的铁矿进行扩建;在2009年通过旗下子公司京西重工收购美国的德尔福减振制动部门;在2011年收购了马来西亚东钢公司40%的股份。
(2)尽管并购前后目标方和并购方经营状况、股价涨幅、创新能力、市场渗透率等方面也是重要的研究领域,但本研究暂不涉及。
(3)其他经验变量有:企业在同目标国失败并购次数(ExpCFN)、企业在同区域其他国家成功并购次数(ExpRSN)、企业在同区域其他国家失败并购次数(ExpRFN)、企业在低制度质量国家成功并购次数(ExpLSN)、企业在高制度质量国家成功并购次数(ExpHSN)以及其他中国企业在同目标国成功并购次数(ExpPCSN)和其他中国企业在同目标国失败并购次数(ExpPCFN)。
(4)比如在油气行业,多数国家禁止外资获得超过50%的控制权。
(5)边际提升效应实际为76%(并不是表3第(1)列的ExpCSN的系数),由于模型不同,系数不具备可比性。
(6)若进入处理组的标准改为ExpCSN≥4,则由于共同取值范围的区间较小而处理组和对照组的个体数量都太少,进一步导致两组的并购成功率无变化。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F279.2;F271;F125
引用信息:
[1]徐沛原,王永中,姜玉妍.企业国际并购能力来源：中国企业海外并购经验的视角[J].经济学报,2024,11(04):60-85.
2024-09-04
2024-09-04
2024-09-04