刘金全,陈润东,隋艺

• 1:广州大学经济与统计学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文构建高维贝叶斯向量自回归模型，并采用具有因子结构的符号约束方法识别了7种主流经济冲击，包括国内需求冲击、国内供给冲击、国外需求冲击、国外供给冲击、金融冲击、财政政策冲击和货币政策冲击，并分析了这些冲击的内在属性、影响范畴及其对中国经济周期波动的贡献度。研究发现：第一，国内需求冲击和国内供给冲击对产出和通胀有直接影响，国外需求冲击主要通过贸易渠道影响中国经济，但国外供给冲击对中国经济的影响很小；第二，金融冲击，尤其是房地产价格冲击，对GDP、消费、投资等变量的影响程度最大，是引致中国经济周期波动的主要冲击源，国内供给冲击和国内需求冲击对产出波动也有重要贡献；第三，2010至2019年间，中国经济周期波动的缓和与内外部经济冲击的幅度减弱密切相关；第四，财政政策和货币政策对产出的影响具有时变特征，在应对重大负面冲击时，两者都能有效稳定经济增长。本文的研究为理解中国经济周期波动的成因复杂性及驱动因素提供了新的证据，也为中国经济“大缓和”现象提供了新的解释，并强调了财政货币政策在熨平经济波动方面的重要性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 经济周期波动;经济冲击类型识别;向量自回归模型;符号约束方法

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“产业升级背景下中国经济周期的特征与形成机制研究”（25&ZD111）;国家社会科学基金一般项目“生产网络视角下宏观经济波动的微观原因与政策应对研究”（24BJL049）;; 广东省学科共建项目“广东省房地产价格趋势走向和区域异化的驱动因素、经济社会效应及政策调控模式选择研究”（GD22XYJ09）的资助

作者(Author): 刘金全,陈润东,隋艺

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• (1)在本文所有的脉冲响应函数结果分析中,深色实线都是中位数,灰色阴影部分为置信区间。