黄实磊

• 1:安徽大学大数据与统计学院

摘要(Abstract)：

货币政策不确定性代表了货币政策调整的潜在成本，本文基于广延边际效应视角，综合实物期权机制和金融摩擦机制考察货币政策不确定性对新企业进入的影响。本文基于随机波动率区制转换模型测算中国货币政策不确定性，并利用中国工业企业数据库测算城市-行业层面的新企业进入率。研究结果表明，货币政策不确定性显著降低了新企业进入率，实物期权机制和金融摩擦机制是货币政策不确定性抑制新企业进入的有效传导渠道。从实物期权机制来看，行业资产不可逆性和行业进入门槛分别加剧和减弱了货币政策不确定性的抑制作用；进一步，本文将风险感知视角引入实物期权机制，发现宏观经济环境改善能够缓解货币政策不确定性的抑制作用，感知不确定性加剧了货币政策不确定性的抑制作用。从金融摩擦机制来看，宏观信贷资源可得性和地区金融发展程度能够缓解货币政策不确定性的抑制效应；进一步，本文将企业所有制性质作为融资约束的划分依据，发现货币政策不确定性抑制新企业进入的作用对非国有企业更突出。研究结论对于理解货币政策不确定性的广延边际效应、防范化解重大风险和优化货币政策调控具有重要启示。

关键词(KeyWords)： 货币政策不确定性;新企业进入;实物期权;金融摩擦;感知不确定性

Abstract:

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基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 黄实磊

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)经济金融因素包括:各省人均国内生产总值对数(2000年不变价)、居民消费价格指数、产业结构(第二产业比重和第三产业比重)、城镇化率(城镇人口比例)、金融发展程度(金融机构年末存款余额与国内生产总值比值和金融机构年末贷款余额与国内生产总值比值)、公共基础设施(公路里程与区域面积比值)、固定资产投资(全社会固定资产投资对数2000年不变价)、公共财政支出(地方财政支出与国内生产总值比重)、人均储蓄(人均城乡储蓄存款2000年不变价);社会人口因素包括:人口死亡率、老年抚养比、少儿抚养比、平均家庭人口规模、教育水平(普通高校在校学生数对数)、城镇居民基本医疗保险基金支出2000年不变价对数值。 (2)限于篇幅,稳健性检验结果未报告,备索。 (3)刘贯春等(2019)行业资产可逆性排名倒序的10个行业是畜牧业、渔业、燃气生产和供应业、纺织业、农业、卫生业、餐饮业、林业、木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业、家具制造业,本文结果与之类似。