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动荡的地缘政治形势已然改变企业供应链所处的环境。美国试图联合盟友重塑“去中国化”的供应链，进一步将中国企业的供应链安全推升至国家安全高度。东道国地缘政治风险如何影响中国企业的供应链安全?本文利用Factset Revere数据库测算中国企业在32个国家布局的供应链安全程度，基于资源依赖理论构建微观理论分析框架并通过实证检验予以回答。研究发现，东道国地缘政治风险提高显著削弱企业供应链的稳定性和韧性，其对供应链稳定性的削弱主要集中于非关键行业、制造业(尤其是非高技术制造业)企业，然而，却对战略重要性和技术水平不同的行业的供应链韧性均造成威胁。本文以克里米亚危机与中美贸易摩擦等重要地缘事件划分样本区间，发现地缘政治风险对企业供应链稳定性和韧性的威胁逐步显现。这种威胁根源于在风险下合作方供应链管理策略趋于保守、企业对东道国的信息获取更加困难。异质性分析表明，东道国的经济民族主义诉求、国内政治博弈和政权更迭将加剧地缘政治风险对供应链的冲击，后两者仅加剧供应链韧性的损失；相反，在地缘政治矛盾尖锐的国家，增进政治关系、优化企业内部治理和加强与利益相关者的联系可作为保障企业供应链安全的战略资源。本文有助于全面把握并重点识别相关风险点，为地缘政治风险下保障企业供应链安全提供启示。
Abstract：Geopolitical tensions have disrupted corporate supply chains. The U.S. collaborates with allies in reshaping supply chains to reduce reliance on China, elevating supply chain security to a national security concern. This paper investigates how geopolitical risk(GPR) affects the supply chain security of Chinese enterprises. Using Factset Revere database, we measure the security of Chinese enterprises' supply chains in 32 countries and find that firms with suppliers in higher GPR countries encounter diminished supply chain stability and resilience. GPR primarily undermines the supply chain stability within non-critical and manufacturing sectors, particularly those not in high technology. However, in terms of supply chain resilience, GPR threatens firms across all industries, regardless of strategic importance or R&D capabilities. By segmenting the sample period based on the Crimean Crisis and the Sino-US trade frictions, we find that the threats to supply chain stability and resilience from GPR have progressively emerged. This threat originates from partners' conservative shift in trading strategies and challenges for enterprises in accessing host country information under risks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that economic nationalism, domestic political maneuvering, and regime changes in host countries amplify the disruptive effects of GPR on supply chain security, with the latter only accelerating the loss of supply chain resilience. In contrast, in high-risk countries, improving political relations, optimizing internal corporate governance, and strengthening connections with stakeholders can be strategic resources to secure corporate supply chains. This study systematically assesses the challenges Chinese supply chains face under GPR and provides insights on safeguarding corporate supply chains under prolonged geopolitical tensions.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:D822;F274
引用信息:
[1]唐凯洁,杨攻研.地缘政治风险如何影响中国企业供应链安全：微观机理和经验证据[J].经济学报,2026,13(01):20-35.
基金信息:
2024年国家社会科学基金重点项目“地缘政治风险对我国企业供应链安全的影响及对策研究”（项目编号：24AGJ008）; 2023年辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目面上项目（项目编号：JYTMS20230742）; 2023年度辽宁大学亚洲研究心亚洲问题研究项目重点项目（项目编号：Y202302）的资助
2025-07-23
2025-07-23
2025-07-23