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“高投资,低消费,创新不足,经济增速显著下降”,这是改革开放以来中国经济增长的重要特点。本文认为,通过不同类型的产业政策压低劳动回报的以分配换增长模式,塑造了中国经济现有的发展特征。早期,通过压低工资与劳动收入份额,提高利润份额和总储蓄率,从而强化投资与资本积累,形成“投资拉动型增长”:资本深化加快、产出水平迅速上升,经济更快向稳态收敛。当发展阶段接近技术前沿后,持续增长的核心由资本积累转向技术进步。此时,低工资会直接降低企业创新收益(劳动越便宜,创新回报越低),也会通过压低居民消费与有效需求缩小市场规模,使得固定成本难以摊薄,从而抑制企业创新投入。以分配换增长并非中国特有现象,而是许多发展中国家在工业化和追赶阶段普遍采取的一类发展模式。为此,本文构建一个两阶段理论框架,分析收入分配、资本积累、需求结构与技术进步之间的内在联系。跨国经验证据和中国发展实践说明,劳动收入份额、消费结构、投资结构与长期效率表现之间存在与本文理论一致的结构性关系。低工资发展模式呈现出显著的阶段性:其在模仿追赶阶段可以加速增长,但在创新发展阶段会通过“低工资低消费小市场低创新”的渠道制约长期增长。本文的研究表明,压低劳动收入份额的以分配换增长模式已经不再适应现阶段的中国经济,未来需要推动宏观经济政策从供给端向需求端转型,提高居民收入,以需求引领供给端优胜劣汰和创新发展,促进经济增长。
Abstract：Since the reform and opening-up period,China' s growth has been characterized by high investment,weak consumption,insufficient innovation,and a marked slowdown in recent years.This paper argues that these features reflect a strategy of growth through distributional compression:by suppressing wages and the labor income share, industrial policies increased the profit share and aggregate savings,thereby supporting investment,capital deepening,and rapid catch-up growth in the early stage of development.As the economy approaches the technological frontier,however,the main engine of growth shifts from capital accumulation to innovation.At that stage,low wages weaken firms' incentives to innovate by reducing the returns to labor-saving technologies and by depressing household consumption and market size,which makes it harder to recover the fixed costs of innovation.Growth through distributional compression is not unique to China,but a broader development pattern observed in many late-industrializing economies.To explain its stage-dependent effects,this paper develops a two-stage framework linking income distribution,capital accumulation,demand structure,and technological progress.Cross-country evidence and China' s development experience reveal structural relationships among the labor income share,consumption,investment,and long-run productivity performance that are consistent with the theory.The findings suggest that the low-wage growth model can accelerate growth in the imitation-and-catch-up phase,but becomes a constraint in the innovation-driven phase through the channel of low wages,weak consumption,limited market size,and weak innovation.The paper concludes that this model is no longer suited to China' s current stage of development.Future policy should shift from a supply-centered approach toward one centered more on household income growth and demand expansion,so as to support innovation,structural upgrading,and sustainable growth.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F124.1;F124.7
引用信息:
[1]朱诗娥,杨汝岱.以分配换增长:早期绩效、后期约束与中国经济增长模式转型[J].经济学报,2026(02):36-54.
基金信息:
国家社科基金项目“促进产业升级与提高劳动者收入的协同发展研究”(22BJL094);国家社科基金重大项目“加快内外贸一体化改革的政策体系和制度保障研究”(24ZDA060)的资助
2026-07-29
2026-07-29
2026-07-29