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本文利用2020年中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)数据,以“35岁门槛”作为劳动者职业发展的负面冲击,研究了职业发展对劳动者生育意愿的影响及潜在机制。研究发现:(1)职业发展受限显著降低了劳动者的生育意愿;(2)职业发展受限加剧了劳动者“家庭-工作”时间的冲突,降低了其对未来的信心,恶化了其婚姻关系,从而导致劳动者的生育意愿下降;(3)异质性分析表明,职业发展受限主要降低了男性、低收入、低学历以及低职业声望劳动者的生育意愿,对女性、高收入、高学历以及高职业声望劳动者的生育意愿并没有影响,同时职业发展受限也弱化了劳动者生育男孩的偏好。本文丰富了职业发展与劳动者生育意愿的相关研究,对如何提升中国家庭的生育意愿与生育率具有重要的政策启示。
Abstract：Using the data of China Family Panel Survey(CFPS) in 2020,this paper constructs a regression model to explore the causal relationship between career development and workers' fertility intention and its influencing mechanism.The results show that:(1) the hindered career development of workers will significantly reduce their fertility intention;(2) Blocked career development will prolong workers' working hours,further unbalance their "family-work" time allocation,reduce workers' confidence in the future,have a negative impact on their marriage relationship,and then lead to a decline in workers' fertility intention;(3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that limited career advancement primarily reduces the fertility intentions of male,low-income,low-education,and low-occupationalprestige workers.It has no impact on the fertility intentions of female,high-income,high-education,and high-occupational-prestige workers.Furthermore,limited career advancement weakens workers' preference for having a son.This paper enriches the theoretical research on career development and workers' fertility intention.
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(1)总和生育率表示假设妇女度过整个生育期并按照当期的年龄别生育率生育孩子所生育的孩子数。国际更替水平是指同一批妇女生育子女的数量刚好能代替其自身与配偶。
(1)数据来源于世界银行官网,这里劳动参与率指劳动总人数占15~64岁人口的百分比;女性劳动参与率指女性劳动人口占15~64岁女性人口的百分比。
(2)数据来自于智联招聘《2023年一季度人才市场热点快报》。
(1)我们同样使用了家庭数据库对夫妻样本进行匹配,通过对比夫妻生育意愿的差异,发现不同年龄段的夫妻,其生育意愿一致的比例均达到92%以上,这也在一定程度上证明了我们使用个体样本的合理性。感谢审稿专家的宝贵建议。
(1)文章将35岁作为职业发展受限的断点值,对劳动者晋升的断点效应进行绘图,可知劳动者发展受限在35岁处显著向上跳跃,可见“35岁门槛”会显著增加劳动者职业发展受限的概率。受篇幅所限故不再展示。
(2)我们将女性生育状况按照一孩家庭和二孩家庭进行区分,并将女性生育时间(最近一次生育年龄)划分为25岁之前、25~30岁和30岁之后,分别就自评健康水平、是否患有慢性病以及健康水平变化进行对比,结果总体上并无差异。此外,我们还细分了30~40岁年龄段中,每一年龄之间女性的自评健康差异,结果亦均不显著。考虑到女性可能会为之后的职业发展储备时间而选择提前生育,我们也对不同年龄段的女性生育状况进行对比,并未发现提前生育现象。非常感谢审稿人的宝贵意见。
(1)数据来源于《2020年中国人口普查年鉴》中女性生育年龄数据、《中国生育报告2024》和第三届中国人口与发展论坛公布数据。
(2)2015年国家卫计委官方数据表明,全国符合二孩政策的夫妇中,40岁以上的育龄妇女占一半比例。
(3)数据来源于《中国生育健康报告(2022)》。
(1)我们还使用歧视分解法进一步证明了“35岁门槛”对职业发展的影响。此外,我们也将“35岁门槛”作为外生变量,构建处理效应模型以解决样本自选择问题,结果与工具变量结果相似。受篇幅所限故不再展示。
(1)我们将劳动者的劳动收入按照三分位以下、三分位至五分位、五分位至七分位以及七分位以上进行划分,对应低收入水平、中低收入水平、中高收入水平和高收入水平。
(1)文章将“劳动者工作收入在0.7分位数以上”定义为高收入,其他定义为中低收入。
(2)“高学历”与“低学历”以是否接受过高等教育为划分依据,高中(中专)以上学历者即认为是高学历者,高中(中专)及以下则认为低学历者。
(1)现有文献根据劳动者的职业代码,将其划分为高声望职业、中高声望职业、中低声望职业以及低声望职业。我们将高声望和中高声望职业归为高职业声望,中低职业声望和低职业声望归为低职业声望。
(1)即用父母对子女的经济支持数额与子女对父母的经济支持数额做差,差值为正数则认为获得来自父代的经济净支持,计为1,其他则计为0。
(2)以“劳动者父母亲是否帮助子女照料家务和孩子”构建代际照料支持变量。
基本信息:
中图分类号:C913.2;C924.21
引用信息:
[1]汪伟,吴晓恒.职业发展与生育意愿——兼论“35岁门槛”的影响[J].经济学报().
基金信息:
国家社科基金重大项目(领军人才项目)“人口老龄化的收入不平等效应及对策研究”(编号:23VRC052); 国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面实施供给侧结构性改革研究”(编号:22ZDA049); 上海高校东方学者特聘教授支持计划(2023140001); 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2025110721,2025110400,2025110511)的资助
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2026-04-10
2026-04-10