吸引外资影响对外投资吗?——基于全球层面数据的研究Does Inward FDI Impact on Outward FDI? Evidence from Global Panel Data
潘文卿,陈晓,陈涛涛,顾凌骏
摘要(Abstract)：
基于IDP理论,本研究使用1980—2011年全球146个国家的面板数据对"吸引外资对对外投资的影响及其作用机制"这一核心问题进行分析。研究结果表明,从全球总体层面来看,一国吸引外资对该国对外投资有着显著的正向影响;并且吸引外资对东道国对外投资促进作用的大小与东道国的特征密切相关:东道国对流入FDI的吸收能力越强、市场规模越大,则越有利于从吸引外资发展出自身的对外投资能力。研究同时发现,一国经济发展水平对东道国对外投资的影响,更大程度上也是通过直接影响其对流入FDI的吸收效果的提升而实施的,且这一机制具有稳健性。
关键词(KeyWords)： 对外投资;吸引外资;东道国特征;投资发展路径理论
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71173124;71173132);; 清华大学自主科研计划项目(Z04-1)资助
作者(Author): 潘文卿,陈晓,陈涛涛,顾凌骏
DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2015.03.002
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- ①本文中选用的美元GDP平减指数来源为世界银行世界发展指数(world development indicators)。
- ②我们关于存量的数据直接来源于联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)统计数据库,该数据库详细统计了每个国家相关年份的对外投资和吸引外资的存量。根据其对于指标的定义,我们使用的数据指的是一国在每一年当年整体在国外的实际总资产的价值(或统计在本国所有外资资本的价值),而非使用流量进行加总。由于这个数据库没有排除价格变动的影响,为严谨起见.本文使用世界银行世界发展指数的美元GDP平减指数做了调整,从而一定程度上克服了数据库的潜在偏误。
- ①对ln(IFDI)、ln(IFDI)*HC、ln(IFDI)*ln(GDP)的联合F检验结果为;F(3,2186)=47.34,Pr>F=0.00。
- ①检验发现ln(IFDI)*ln(GNI)与ln(IFDI)*ln(GDP)的相关系数为0.934.ln(IFDI)*ln(GNI)与ln(GNI)的相关系数为0.796,ln(IFDI)*ln(GDP)与ln(GNI)的相关系数为0.593。
- ②对ln(IFDI)*ln(GDP)、ln(IFDI)*ln(GNI)、ln(GNI)的联合F检验结果为;F(3,2185)=18.2.Pr>F=0.00。
- ③按世界银行公布的数据,2008年的最新收入分组标准为:人均收入低于975美元为低收入国家,976~3855美元为中等偏下收入国家,3856~11905美元为中等偏上收入国家,高于11906美元为高收入国家。
- ①该两个交叉项间的相关系数高达0.93。
- ②当发展中国家的GDP水平(以2010年为例)在全球平均水平之上时,我们认为该国的市场容量较大,定义虚拟变量的取值为1,否则取值为0。