信用评级有效性与监管依赖:来自银行同业存单的证据Credit Ratings and Financial Regulations:Evidence from the Interbank Negotiable Certificate of Deposits
刘士达,王浩,张明
摘要(Abstract):
本文利用同业存单研究监管依赖对我国银行信用评级有效性的影响。同业存单信用利差只有在AAA和AA+级中能够反映不同评级之间的差距;评级只有上调至AA+或AAA以上,信用利差才会部分下降。监管影响评级质量的理论可以解释这些现象。由于监管机构较多使用AA+及AAA作为债券投资、发行的门槛,在这两个等级中,信用利差与银行类型、财务指标显著相关,表明信用评级也未能完全有效地反映信用风险。
关键词(KeyWords): 信用评级;同业存单;金融监管;评级有效性;信用利差
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71272023和71471099)的资助
作者(Author): 刘士达,王浩,张明
DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2018.01.001
参考文献(References):
- 高强,邹恒甫.2015.企业债与公司债二级市场定价比较研究[J].金融研究,(1):84-100.
- 何平,金梦.2010.信用评级在中国债券市场的影响力[J].金融研究,(4):15-28.
- 黄小琳,朱松,陈关亭.2017.债券违约对涉事信用评级机构的影响---基于中国信用债市场违约事件的分析[J].金融研究,(3):130-144.
- 蒋贤锋,Packer F.2017.中外企业信用评级的差异及其决定因素[R].中国人民银行工作论文No.2017/5.
- 寇宗来,盘宇章,刘学悦.2015.中国的信用评级真的影响发债成本吗?[J].金融研究,(10):81-98.
- 李琦,罗炜,谷仕平.2011.企业信用评级与盈余管理[J].经济研究,46(S2):88-99.
- 刘士达,张明,王喆.2017.中国特色的同业存单市场:国际经验、特征事实与潜在风险[J].金融市场研究,(11):101-116.
- 马榕,石晓军.2015.中国债券信用评级结果具有甄别能力吗?---基于盈余管理敏感性的视角[J].经济学(季刊),15(1):197-216.
- 王雄元,张春强.2013.声誉机制、信用评级与中期票据融资成本[J].金融研究,(8):150-164.
- 王喆,张明,刘士达.2017.从“通道”到“同业”---中国影子银行体系的演进历程、潜在风险与发展方向[J].国际经济评论,(4):128-148.
- 许友传.2017.银行信用评级的信息质量及其次级债事前约束[J].金融研究,(7):105-122.
- 钟辉勇,钟宁桦,朱小能.2016.城投债的担保可信吗?---来自债券评级和发行定价的证据[J].金融研究,(4):66-82.
- Agarwal S,Chen V Y S,Zhang W N.2016.The information value of credit rating action reports:a textual analysis[J].Management Science,62(8):2218-2240.
- Alp A.2013.Structural shifts in credit rating standards[J].The Journal of Finance,68(6):2435-2470.
- Baghai R P,Becker B.2018.Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest[J].Journal of Financial Economics,127(1):94-112.
- Bar-Isaac H,Shapiro J.2013.Ratings quality over the business cycle[J].Journal of Financial Economics,108(1):62-78.
- Becker B,Milbourn T.2011.How did increased competition affect credit ratings?[J].Journal of Financial Economics,101(3):493-514.
- Behr P,Kisgen D J,Taillard J P.2016.Did government regulations lead to inflated credit ratings?[J].Management Science,doi:10.2139/ssrn.2412294.
- Bolton P,Freixas X,Shapiro J.2012.The credit ratings game[J].The Journal of Finance,67(1):85-111.
- Bongaerts D,Cremers K J M,Goetzmann W N.2012.Tiebreaker:certification and multiple credit ratings[J].The Journal of Finance,67(1):113-152.
- Bruno V,Cornaggia J,Cornaggia K J.2016.Does regulatory certification affect the information content of credit ratings?[J].Management Science,62(6):1578-1597.
- Cantor R,Packer F.1994.The credit rating industry[R].Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review,19(2):1-26.
- Cheng M,Neamtiu M.2009.An empirical analysis of changes in credit rating properties:timeliness,accuracy and volatility[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,47(1/2):108-130.
- Cole H L,Cooley T F.2014.Rating agencies[R].NBER Working Paper No.19972.
- Collin-Dufresn P,Goldstein R S,Martin J S.2001.The determinants of credit spread changes[J].The Journal of Finance,56(6):2177-2207.
- Cornaggia J,Cornaggia K J.2013.Estimating the costs of issuer-paid credit ratings[J].The Review of Financial Studies,26(9):2229-2269.
- Dimitrov V,Palia D,Tang L.2015.Impact of the Dodd-Frank act on credit ratings[J].Journal of Financial Economics,115(3):505-520.
- Griffin J M,Tang D Y.2012.Did subjectivity play a role in CDO credit ratings?[J].The Journal of Finance,67(4):1293-1328.
- Hand J R,Holthausen R W,Leftwich R W.1992.The effect of bond rating agency announcements on bond and stock prices[J].The Journal of Finance,47(2):733-752.
- He J,Qian J,Strahan P E.2011.Credit ratings and the evolution of the mortgage-backed securities market[J].American Economic Review,101(3):131-135.
- He JJ,Qian J,Strahan P E.2012.Are all ratings created equal?the impact of issuer size on the pricing of mortgage-backed securities[J].The Journal of Finance,67(6):2097-2137.
- Hilscher J,Wilson M I.2016.Credit ratings and credit risk:is one measure enough?[J].Management Science,63(10):3414-3437.
- HinesM A,Ang J S,Patel K A.1975.Bond rating methods:comparison and validation[J].The Journal of Finance,30(2):631-640.
- Jiang J,Stanford M H,Xie Y.2012.Does it matter who pays for bond ratings?historical evidence[J].Journal of Financial Economics,105(3):607-621.
- Kashyap A K,Kovrijnykh N.2016.Who should pay for credit ratings and how?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,29(2):420-456.
- Kisgen D J.2006.Credit ratings and capital structure[J].The Journal of Finance,61(3):1035-1072
- Kisgen D J,Strahan P E.2010.Do regulations based on credit ratings affect a firm's cost of capital?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,23(12):4324-4347.
- Kraft P.2015.Do rating agencies cater?evidence from rating-based contracts[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,59(2/3):264-283.
- Livingston M,Poon W P H,Zhou L.2018.Are Chinese credit ratings relevant?a study of the Chinese bond market and credit rating industry[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,87:216-232.
- Mariano B.2012.Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,36(6):1616-1626.
- Mason J,Rosner J.2007.Where did the risk go?How misapplied bond ratings cause mortgage backed securities and collateralized debt obligation market disruptions[R].SSRN working paper.
- MorganD P.2002.Rating banks:risk and uncertainty in an opaque industry[J].American Economic Review,92(4):874-888.
- Opp C C,Opp M M,Harris M.2013.Rating agencies in the face of regulation[J].Journal of Financial Economics,108(1):46-61.
- Sangiorgi F,Spatt C.2017.Opacity,credit rating shopping,and bias[J].Management Science,63(12):4016-4036.
- Skreta V,Veldkamp L.2009.Ratings shopping and asset complexity:a theory of ratings inflation[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,56(5):678-695.
- White L J.2010.Markets:the credit rating agencies[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,24(2):211-226.
- (1)我们也考虑了以同期国债作为无风险利率,但由于两种方式计算得到的信用利差相关系数较高(0.69),因而后文主要汇报以更具有经济含义的Shibor为无风险利率的利差。