李小帆

• 1:清华大学经济管理学院经济系

摘要(Abstract)：

服务要素已经成为制造业生产中的重要中间投入。由于服务产品多表现为非贸易品,所以两国服务业发展的差距将导致两国制造业竞争力的差距,从而带来制造业贸易。已有文献一方面发现对服务业FDI的管制会抑制服务业和制造业的发展,另一方面也发现服务产品的贸易成本较高,且对服务业FDI的管制会抑制服务产品的直接贸易。因此,给定其他条件,服务业FDI管制少的国家应该向管制多的国家出口服务要素密集度高的制造业产品。通过理论模型分析以及基于引力方程的实证分析,本文证实了这一结论。

关键词(KeyWords)： 引力方程;服务业FDI管制;制造业贸易

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李小帆

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2018.01.003

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• (1)根据服务的提供方式,WTO服务业关贸总协定(GATS)将服务贸易分为四种方式:(1)跨境贸易;(2)境外消费;(3)商业存在或FDI;(4)生产者自然人流动。其中服务业FDI(方式3)是最主要的服务贸易方式。1995到2005年,服务业FDI占服务业贸易总量的比重增长了一倍(Miroudot et al.,2009)。2011年,服务业FDI约占服务贸易总量近60%,是跨境贸易量的两倍(Lanz and Andreas,2015)。
• (1)第1部分模型中,为了和EK模型保持一致,我们以expni表示i国到n国的出口。但是在实证部分,为了和传统引力方程文献一致,我们以exportij表示i国向j国的出口。
• (1)Aleksynska and Havrylchyk(2013)、Demir and Hu(2016)同样通过在引力方程中加入两国制度的差距来讨论国家间FDI。当然,本文也可以在引力方程中分别加入贸易两国对服务业FDI的管制,并检验两国服务业FDI管制的系数之差是否为负且联合显著。结果显示,两种方法的结论相同。
• (1)本文关注的服务业没有包括交通运输业。根据理论模型,如果一国交通运输业的发展由于管制而受到阻碍,那么该国制造业将因为缺乏运输成本优势而增加进口。但是,交通运输发展滞后本身又会抑制该国的进口能力,从而减少进口。事实上,如下文表4所示,本文关注的4个服务业FDI管制都对制造业贸易存在显著影响,但交通运输业FDI管制的影响不显著。
• (1)与Beverelli et al.(2017)相同,我们采用世界银行的地区划分。