庞春

• 1:湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文在分工经济与交易费用的权衡中,创新性引入人口密度的双重外部性和资源的竞争性,借助于产消合一的内生专业化模型,来分析影响人口密度的经济因素、解释人口密度在分工网络中的作用原理。均衡及比较静态分析显示:交易效率改进,将促进区域的最优人口密度增高,强化交易品的专业化水平,扩大分工网络,增强人口密度在分工网络中的正效应——放大技术生产力,节省学习投入,扩增产品的消费和交易种类,提高总产出量、市场容量和产销转化率,促成交易密集的厚实市场,从而减轻人口稠密和资源稀缺的负效应,导致人均真实收入上升。本文模型有助于破解人口、分工与增长之谜。

关键词(KeyWords)： 人口密度的双重外部性;交易密度;厚实市场;内生分工;经济发展

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 庞春

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20191226.006

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• (1)人口密度的双重外部性意味着,在经济活动中,人口密度既会产生正效应,也会带来负效应。详见本文第1部分。交易效率的含义,也见本文第1部分。
• (1)相关数据,见The World Bank,Brookings,www.citypopulation.de和Wikipedia等。
• (2)基于多国数据的分析,Gallup et al.(1998)研究显示,在人均收入与人口密度之间缺乏直接的关联。蔡昉等(2001)在文献评述中提及,就经济发展与人口密度存在何种关系,文献仍没有给出明确的结论。但本文将给出解答。
• (3)“交易费用”是“单位交易费用”(每笔交易的平均交易代价)的简称,它与经济中的“总交易费用”容易混淆。
• (1)相关的文献非常丰富,这里不赘述。
• (2)埃斯特·博塞拉普(2015)也持有与马尔萨斯不同的见解。
• (1)Becker and Murphy(1992)已提及他们与杨小凯等人(Yang and Borland,1991)的区别,后者推进了斯密的专业化与分工思想。
• (1)Bleakley and Lin(2012),Ono(2007),Roth(2018)分别研究了就业市场、服务外包市场、搜寻匹配与市场设计,而McL aren(2003)罗列了增加市场厚度的几种途径,Oyer(2014)提供了厚实与稀薄市场的诸多实例。这些文献几乎直接将市场参与者的人数视为市场厚度。与之不同,本文从分工的角度,将给出与厚实市场有关的“交易密度”的定义和分析。
• (1)工商业界和管理学界最早使用prosumers这种称谓。
• (2)Sun et al.(2004)以及Yao(2002)证明了产消者的专业化决策及其分工结构的均衡存在性,为该框架提供了理论基础。
• (1)该模型的早期版本见于杨小凯和黄有光(Yang and Ng,1993),也见于杨小凯(Yang,2001)。
• (1)相关的经济学文献通常都隐含了这样的假定。Rodrik(2015)阐述了研究方法论,指明数理经济模型的构建策略以及模型在经济分析中的作用。钱颖一(2002)阐述了经济学方法论。
• (2)笔者在另一项研究中,对城市的地理范围做了内生化处理,以此分析城市的起源和扩张与分工演进的关系。
• (1)有关生产者-消费者的最优专业化决策,见Yang and Ng(1993);Wen(1997);Yao(2002);Sun et al.(2004).
• (1)在部分分工的结构中,必定有一些产消者从事部分专业化的活动。部分专业化是指,产消者不是专注于一种产品(或服务)的生产。有关专业化的定义,见杨小凯(Yang,2001)。
• (2)杨小凯(Yang,2001)解释了外生的冰山交易费用(iceberger trading costs)的含义,他说明了外生与内生交易费用的区别和联系,并认为虽然单位交易费用1-k是外生的参数,但由于在专业化与分工的新兴古典经济学框架下交易次数被内生化,因此总交易费用也得以内生化。有关交易费用或交易效率的含义,也见杨小凯(Yang,2003)。Samuelson(1952)从冰山交易费用的视角分析了运输成本的外生变化对贸易造成的影响。Cheung(1983,1998),Coase(1937)和Williamson(1985)等贡献了有关交易费用的经典文献。此外,Acemoglu and Robinson(2012)通过对比国与国在制度的结构及其效率上的差异,解释了一国繁荣或衰败的缘由;Kohn(2001)分析了在工业革命之前欧洲的贸易与经济如何受到交易费用的影响;North and Thomas(1973)以及North(1990,2005)论证,西方世界的经济兴起是交易费用不断降低以及制度演进的结果;钱颖一(Qian,1999;2000)在他早期完成的理论模型基础上,阐述了中国自1978年以来其市场经济体系的成型和演进,得益于中国内生性制度和交易费用的降低。
• (1)即学习成本(learning costs),见Yang and Ng(1993),Yang(2001)。本文用“学习投入”来表述,以凸显“为获得收益而付出”之意。
• (1)直接网络正效应的早期经典文献,见Shapiro and Varian(1999);间接网络效应与双边(多边)市场文献,见Evans and Schmalensee(2016),Rochet and Tirole(2003)。
• (1)Wen(1997)模型的简化版本,见杨小凯(Yang,2001)。
• (1)分工经济与交易费用之间的权衡,是构建新兴古典经济学框架的基石。而该框架为杨小凯、黄有光等人所创立、发展和深化。
• (1)Wen(1997)研究了资源与分工问题,但不涉及人口密度问题,详见前文的解释。
• (2)这种设定方式还可推广并应用到相关问题中。
• (3)笔者认为,一般函数和具体函数各有优势和劣势;模型的一般性程度受到诸多因素的制约和影响,它们包括:现实经济的复杂性、建模者的思维和认知、简化的程度、假定的强弱、隐性假定的存在等。
• (1)见附录的计算和推导。
• (1)蔡昉(2014)阐述了改进市场效率在提高人口红利上的作用。经济统计学家麦迪森(2009)指出,在1820-2001年,西方的后裔国(美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰)比西方国家或其他地区在人口总量和GDP上实现了较大幅度的增长,这得益于它们远离战争、继承良好的制度结构、拥有产权保护体系。诺奖得主诺斯(North,2005)论证,过去几百年来西方世界的经济兴起是制度与交易费用不断降低的结果。钱颖一(Qian,1999,2000)解释,正是中国经济制度的内生性长期变迁,推动了1978年以来市场经济的出现和演进。