潘文卿,陈佳楹

• 1:清华大学经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文主要探讨关税和汇率政策的实施对中国区域工资水平及分布的影响。本文通过构建中国1997—2016年的省级面板数据模型,将两个新经济地理因素变量与两类贸易政策变量相关联进行实证分析。研究发现,关税降低和实际汇率升值有助于提升中国各省区的工资水平;同时,关税下降还会进一步扩大东部沿海地区与内陆地区间的工资差异,但汇率变动则不会带来异质性的影响。虽然资源大省的工资水平比非资源大省低,但关税与汇率变动的影响均不会因省区是否为资源大省而产生显著差异。另外,本文也考察了东部地区外部性的影响,发现当控制了距海外市场的距离后,东部地区的工资水平并不会比其他地区有着额外的提升;通过加入WTO以及人民币定价机制改革两项自然实验,发现在中国加入WTO后关税变动的影响力度更大,汇率变动也在汇率定价机制改革后对距海外市场较近省区工资水平的影响更大一些。

关键词(KeyWords)： 贸易政策;关税;汇率;工资水平

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71573150)资助

作者(Author): 潘文卿,陈佳楹

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2019.02.003

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• (1)参考李钦等(2016)的分类,山西、陕西、内蒙古、新疆、黑龙江、山东、河北、河南、辽宁、甘肃10个省区为资源大省,其他为非资源大省。
• (2)Wei(1993)发现,在中国,增长最快的城市是那些有大量出口部门的城市。贸易所引发的区域资源流动,将改变区域的相对经济财富。而区域间发展分化,不仅会影响社会稳定,还可能会影响经济的长期增长(Malinen,2012,2013)。
• (1)《世界银行数据库》中由国际清算银行所测算出的实际有效汇率指数是以2010为基期的,为了基期年份的一致性,本文将其调整为以1997年为基期。
• (1)2009-2015年中国排名前10的港口分别是上海港、深圳港、宁波-舟山港、青岛港、广州港、天津港、大连港、厦门港、营口港以及连云港。
• (1)变量east是东部地区哑变量,包含北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11个省级行政区。
• (1)yr01为时间哑变量,在2001年及之前各年取值为0,2001年以后各年取值为1。
• (1)这里没有再对模型进行极大似然估计。
• (1)yr06为时间哑变量,在2006年前取值为0,2006年及之后各年取值为1。
• (1)匿名审稿人建议直接将资源生产量引入模型来考察资源的丰裕程度对工资水平的影响。感谢审稿人的这一提议。
• (1)各模型的估计中Hausman检验均显示固定效应估计方法优于随机效应估计方法。