杨本建,林云鹏

• 1:暨南大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文采用一种新的分解方法，将外来移民对城市房价的总效应分解为外来移民的直接需求效应和通过影响本地居民流动性从而影响城市房价的引致需求效应，并估计了这两种效应在解释城市房价上涨中所占的比例。运用2015年1%人口抽样调查微观数据以及中国房地产指数系统的百城住房价格数据，实证结果表明，外来移民占比增加1%,城市房价上涨0.59%,其中，移民的直接需求效应可以解释总效应的73.9%,剩余26.1%由外来移民的引致需求效应解释。本文结果意味着，外来移民不仅会通过直接的需求效应推动城市房价上涨，而且还会通过影响本地居民的流动性从而间接影响城市住房价格，忽略这一引致需求效应将会低估外来移民对城市房价的影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 外来移民;城市住房价格;本地居民流动性;直接需求效应;引致需求效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金“城市群视角下技术创新的内生机理及其经济增长效应研究”（项目编号：6CJL010）;; 广东省自然科学基金“产业政策协同影响产业升级的理论与实证研究”;; 暨南大学宁静致远项目“产业政策协同对产业升级的影响研究：微观机制、实证证据与政策设计”的阶段性研究成果

作者(Author): 杨本建,林云鹏

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20220907.001

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• (1)Saiz(2007)和Sharpe(2019)都认为迁入地的气温、降雨量等会直接影响房价,因此在他们的回归方程中城市的气温通常作为控制变量而加入。
• (2)Sharpe(2019)注意到了基于份额转移法构建的工具变量的局限性,因此同时控制了历史上城市住房价格的变化幅度,希望能够控制高比例移民城市与低比例移民城市历史差异的持续性对房价的影响。但是我们认为,即使加入这一变量,仍然不能完全消除历史上影响移民的地理因素对房价的直接影响,从而导致基于份额转移法构建的工具变量不满足外生性条件。
• (3)本地经济发展也会影响城市工人的工资水平。在我们的模型中,本地经济发展水平对本地工人工资的影响体现在■,同时由于工人是自由流动的,且工人流动的目的是追求高收入,因此一个城市的外来移民数也可以直接反映该地区的经济发展水平。
• (4)如果一个外来移民进入导致一个本地居民迁出,即■,则外来移民仍然会影响城市的总收入,这是因为外来移民与本地工人的工资可能存在差异(■不等于■I)。
• (5)我们也可以考虑将区域定义为省级层面,由于百城房价数据中的城市大部分为省会城市,因此省级层面的固定效应与年份固定效应的交乘项与解释变量高度共线,因此我们加入东、中、西部的哑变量与年份哑变量的交乘项,以捕捉那些区域层面随年份变化的因素。