田坤,行伟波,黄坤

• 1:北京工商大学经济学院
• 2:对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院
• 3:武汉大学经济与管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

旅游经济作为品质化服务业的典型代表，是“绿色转型”背景下地区经济增长的新引擎。通过高铁开通的“准自然实验”,本文选取中国264个地级市2000—2019年间的面板数据，采用双重差分法评估了交通基础设施升级对地方旅游经济高质量发展的影响。研究发现，高铁开通显著带动了地区旅游经济发展，采用“最小生成树”和“民国铁路信息”作为工具变量进行内生性问题处理，结果稳健。具体而言，高铁开通对国内旅游产值和旅游城市发展更具促进作用；东部地区取得了更多的旅游产值，而中西部地区获得了更高的旅游流量。机制研究方面，高铁开通借助提高外部交通通达性和优化内部公共服务供给水平的途径带动地区旅游经济的高质量发展。本文的发现为交通基础设施升级驱动地区旅游经济发展提供了重要的现实依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 旅游经济;高铁开通;交通基础设施升级;高质量发展

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273022);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71733003);; 北京工商大学青年教师科研启动基金资助项目(19008022195)的资助

作者(Author): 田坤,行伟波,黄坤

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• (1)数据来源于《中华人民共和国文化和旅游部2019年文化和旅游发展统计公报》。
• (2)截至2019年年底,我国已先后开通125条高铁线路,开通高铁的地级市数量也达到242个。
• (3)根据中国旅游研究院和携程旅游共同发布的《国庆中秋长假旅游趋势报告与人气排行榜》,国庆小长假的旅游收入和接待人次数分别占全年比重的14%和13%。
• (4)上述类型城市的行政活动和商务活动会带来非旅游目的的旅游收入和接待游客人次数增加,进而影响到基准回归的识别,故而剔除。
• (5)我们通过手工查阅《中国铁道便览》(1934)和《中国交通史》(1937)来确定本文的所有样本城市在民国二十二年是否开通铁路的信息,如果当时的铁路线路经过了本文样本城市,则取1;否则取0。
• (6)我们也尝试了将被解释变量取对数、被解释变量更换为旅游收入占GDP的比重,结果均显著。
• (7)例如,若某地级市通车的高铁线路有两条,则记高铁开通强度为2。
• (8)本文选择1∶4放回抽样最近距离的配对方法构建各个高铁开通城市的对照组。
• (9)此处感谢匿名审稿专家的宝贵意见。
• (10)我国游客和外国游客的出行方式习惯也存在差异:中短途出行领域,我国居民更习惯铁路出行,外国居民更习惯航空出行。
• (11)参照国家旅游局1998年出台的《中国优秀旅游城市检查标准(试行)》和《中国优秀旅游城市验收办法》,本文将符合“景区景点为核心、旅游产业为主体、旅游业产值超过城市GDP的7%”标准的城市定义为旅游城市;其他城市定义为非旅游城市。
• (12)东部地区包括河北、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;其余地区为中西部地区。
• (13)地级市间的直线距离通过Arc-Gis软件利用城市的经纬度坐标数据所得。
• (14)地级市间点对点的高铁和普通铁路平均速度是通过手工查阅12306网站所有铁路客运班次运行距离与时长后,二者相除并取所有班次结果的平均值所得。
• (15)由于中介效应模型较为通用,此处省略,如需备索。