叶永卫,李佳轩,陶云清

• 1:上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院
• 2:华中科技大学管理学院
• 3:北京大学国家发展研究院、数字金融中心

摘要(Abstract)：

基于信贷供应方视角，本文系统考察了经济政策不确定性对中国企业债务期限结构的影响。利用中国沪深A股上市企业的面板数据研究发现，伴随着经济政策不确定性上升，企业的债务期限结构呈现出短化趋势，并且这一效应在信息不对称严重的企业中更为突出。作用机制检验发现，对于财务风险较大以及无政府隐性担保的企业，金融机构提供长期负债的意愿较小，从而经济政策不确定性对企业债务期限结构短化的加剧作用更强，这表明金融机构对短期债务的供给偏好是经济政策不确定性导致企业债务期限结构短化的核心作用机制。进一步地，本文还发现经济政策不确定性引致的债务期限结构短化会造成企业长期资金出现缺口，加剧企业的投融资期限错配现象。本文的研究揭示了现阶段中国企业债务期限结构变动的背后逻辑，对于科学制定和有效实施“稳金融”政策具有一定现实意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 经济政策不确定性;债务期限结构;信息不对称

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重点项目“新发展格局构建中的金融资源有效配置机制研究”(21AJY011)的资助

作者(Author): 叶永卫,李佳轩,陶云清

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20220803.001

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• (1)根据国家统计局数据显示,全国固定资产投资增速从2012年的20.9%下降到2020年的2.9%。
• (2)在本文中,主要采用企业的长期债务占比来反映金融机构提供长期信贷的意愿,企业获得的长期债务减少说明金融机构提供长期信贷的意愿下降。
• (3)数据来源:www.policyuncertainty.com
• (4)长期债务和短期债务分别采用长期债务与总资产比值、流动性负债与总资产比值来表示。
• (5)由于该份月度数据在2016年之前并未公布,限于数据可得性,绘制关系图时未使用2016年之前数据。
• (6)本文采用企业的董事长或总经理是否具有政治背景作为企业政治关联的代理变量。
• (7)如果企业高管现在或曾在银行任职,则认为拥有银企关系。
• (8)该指数为樊纲指数,目前该指数更新至2016年,因此2017—2018年的指数沿用2016的结果。
• (9)伴随着供给侧结构性改革,一系列的政策调整致使中国的经济政策不确定性急剧上升,前文的图2也反映了这一典型现实。
• (10)资产可逆性采用固定资产占比来度量,比值越大说明资产可逆性越低。以资产可逆性作为处理变量的原因在于,资产可逆性越低,企业风险抵御能力越差,受经济政策不确定性的影响越大(Liu和Zhang,2020)。