周泳宏,谭海泉

• 1:暨南大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

已有研究表明,政治冲突影响经济行为。本文以2012年9月中日钓鱼岛争端引发的"抵制日货"为例,使用我国2009—2014年汽车销售月度数据,识别政治冲突对型号层面汽车销售的影响并估计其规模。分析表明,日本品牌汽车的销售确实受到抵制影响,并在前4个月最为显著。稳健性检验表明,日本品牌汽车销量的下跌并非来自销售的季节性波动、地区差异和企业差异等因素。本文关于短期抵制效应的证据显示,事件中的观望效应显著。

关键词(KeyWords)： 抵制;政治冲突;汽车;销售;出口

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(暨南远航计划12JNYH002;暨南跨越计划12JNKY001;暨南启明星计划15JNQM001)资助

作者(Author): 周泳宏,谭海泉

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2017.03.005

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• (1)参见新华网(http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2012-09/10/c_113026288.htm)“中国外交部就日本宣布‘购岛’发表声明”。
• (2)参见新浪网2012年09月14日报道(http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20120914/113513140626.shtml)。
• (1)这些调整的原因很多,包括产品返回厂家、订单调整、错误等。在回归分析中,我们忽略这些观察值。
• (1)由于本文的样本期是从2009年5月至2012年8月的样本,因此这样的设置可以保证政策时间前和政策时间后至少存在5个月的样本。
• (2)具体而言,在每一次回归中,我们针对每一个观察值产生一个位于0和1之间的随机数,如果该数值大于或等于0.5,则该观察值划归处理组,否则划归控制组。