朱天,张军

• 1:中欧国际工商学院经济学与决策科学系
• 2:复旦大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

消费占GDP的比重过低以及所谓的需求结构失衡一直以来被很多人认为是中国经济增长能否持续的一个严重约束。本文指出这个广为流行的判断是基于错误的理论和被官方统计严重低估的消费数据。文章分析研究了造成中国官方统计低估居民消费支出的三个原因,并重新估算了中国的消费率。文章釆用使用者成本法修正了国家统计局对住房消费的估计值,对在中国广为流行的由公司账户付费的私人消费进行了初步估算,并结合资金流量表中的住户部门可支配收入重新推算出居民的消费支出,再据此推出消费占GDP的比重的新的估计值。结果表明,官方数据大大低估了中国的消费水平,真实的消费率比官方公布的水平高出10个百分点以上,超过GDP的60%,与东亚高收入经济体在其快速增长时期的消费率非常相似。

关键词(KeyWords)： 国民经济核算;消费;经济增长;中国经济

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中欧国际工商学院和复旦大学“985三期”推进社会科学研究项目

作者(Author): 朱天,张军

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2014.02.003

参考文献(References)：

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Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share[C].Oxford Economic Papers,65:173-196.Cai H,Fang H,Xu L.2011.Eat,drink,firms and governments:An investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures in Chinese firms[J].J ournal of Law and Economics,54(1):55-78.Chamon M?Prasad E.2010.Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?[J],American Economic]ournal:Macroeconomics,2(1):93-130.Diaz A?Luengo-Prado M.2008.On the user cost and homeownership[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,11(3):584-613.Frick J R.Grabka M.2003.Imputed rent and income inequality?A decomposition analysis for great Britain[J].West Germany and the U.S.Review of Income and Wealth,49(4):513-537.Frick J R?Grabka M?Smeeding T M,et al.2010.Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries[J].J ournal of Housing Economics,19(3):167-179.Garner J?Qiao H.2013.Chinese Household Consumption-most Likely US$1.6trn Larger than Officially Stated[R].Morgan Stanley Research,2013-02-23.Huang Y?Lynch C.2013.Unbalanced,but in a good way[J],China Economic Quarterly,9:35-40.Jin H.2008.The Overview of GDP Estimates and Related Issues in China[C].Paperpresented at the 13 th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts.Lardy N.2006.China?Toward a Consumption-driven Growth Path[C],Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper,No.PB06-6.Lardy N.2011.Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis[Z].Peterson Institute for International Economics?Washington,DC.Mayerhauser N?Reinsdorf M.2007.Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts[Z],Unpublished Manuscript.Perkins D.2012.Rapid growth and changing economic structure?The expenditure side story and its implications for China[J],China Economic Review,23(3):501-511.Poterba J.1992.Taxation and housing?Old questions,new answers[J],American Economic Revievus,82(2):237-242.Smeeding T M?Saunders P?Coder J S?et al.1993.Poverty,inequality,and family living standards impacts across seven nations:The effect of noncash subsidies for health,education,and housing[J].Review of Income and Wealth,39(3):229-256.Wei S J,Zhang X B.2011.The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China[J],J ournal of Political Economy,119(3):511-564.Yang D T,Zhang J,Zhou S.2011.Why are Saving Rates so High in China?[C].NBER Working Paper,No.16771.Yates J.1994.Imputed rent and income distribution[J].Revievu of Income and Wealth,40(1):43-64.“十一五”经济社会发展成就系列报告之九:全国城镇居民收支持续增长生活质量显著改善[EB/OL][2011-03-07].http://www.stats,gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/sywcj/t20110307_402708357.htm.程令国,张晔.2011.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?——对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,8:119-132.迟福林.2011.消费率持续下降深层次根源是投资导向[J].经济参考报,2011-05-20.方福前.2009.中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据[J].中国社会科学,2:68-82.高挺,哈继铭.2006.成长中的中国消费——中国居民消费总量和结构分析[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2006-03-10.郭万达,郑鑫,王东升,等.2012.我国居民住房租赁核算的方法选择[J].开放导报,总第161期,2:16-26.国家统计局.2010.中国非经济普查年度GDP核算方法[Z].2010年修订版,国民经济核算司.李稻葵,徐翔.2012.中国经济结构调整及其动力研究[R].清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究报告,总第45期.连平.2007.如何理性看待我国的消费率[N/OL].经济观察网,2007-06-26.http://www.eeo.com.cn/2007/0626/72979.shtml.刘洪玉,郑思齐,许宪春.2003.房地产业所包含经济活动的分类体系和增加值估算[J].统计研究,8:24-27.罗云毅.2000.关于消费率水平问题的思考[J].经济视角,5:4-7.罗云毅.2004.低消费、高投资是现阶段我国经济运行的常态[J].宏观经济研究,5:6-11.马建堂.2011.全面认识我国在世界经济中的地位[N].人民日报,2011-03-17,第16版.彭文生,等.2012.经济转型的消费轨道[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2012-05-06.万广华,张茵,牛建高.2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:35-44.汪伟.2009.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[M].经济学(季刊),9(1):29-52.王庆,Garner J F,章俊.2009.“中国消费不足”被夸大[R].摩根士丹利研究报告,2009-09-14.王小鲁.2007.灰色收入与居民收入差距[Z].中国改革基金会国民经济研究所工作论文.王小鲁.2010.灰色收入与国民收入分配[M].比较,3:1.王耀博.2011.如何破解公车改革制度难题[C].人民论坛,5:252-253.吴敬琏.2010.“首届财新峰会:变革世界的中国”发言[C].2010-11-05.http://finance,ifeng.com/news/special/zhongguoce/20101106/2837214.shtml.吴敬琏.2011.“中国发展高层论坛”发言[EB/OL][2011-03-19].http://finance,ifeng.com/news/20110319/3704171,shtml.夏书章.2006.公车改革[J].中国行政管理,6:89.许宪春,唐杰,殷勇,郭万达.2012.居民住房租赁核算及对消费率的影响——国际比较与中国的实证研究[J].开放导报,2:7-15.杨文辉.2012.利益格局与居民消费[J].经济研究,Sl:28-37.姚洋.2010.调整经济结构,重启改革议程[M].财经,2010(5).张军.2005.如何看待经济发展中的消费因素?[EB/OL].中评网,2005-11-10.http://www.china-review,com/sao.asp?id=17795.朱天,张军.2012a.破解中国消费不足论的迷思[N].中国经济时报,2012-09-06.朱天,张军.2012b.被误读的凯恩斯理论[N].经济观察报,2012-09-24.朱天,张军.2012c.中国的消费率太低?[EB/OL].FT中文网,2012-12-31.http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001048246.Aziz J,Li C.2007.Explaining China's low consumption?The Neglected Role of Household Income[C].IMF Working Paper,Asia and Pacific Department WP/07/181.Bonham C,Wiemer C.2013.Chinese saving dynamics:The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share[C].Oxford Economic Papers,65:173-196.Cai H,Fang H,Xu L.2011.Eat,drink,firms and governments:An investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures in Chinese firms[J].J ournal of Law and Economics,54(1):55-78.Chamon M?Prasad E.2010.Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?[J],American Economic]ournal:Macroeconomics,2(1):93-130.Diaz A?Luengo-Prado M.2008.On the user cost and homeownership[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,11(3):584-613.Frick J R.Grabka M.2003.Imputed rent and income inequality?A decomposition analysis for great Britain[J].West Germany and the U.S.Review of Income and Wealth,49(4):513-537.Frick J R?Grabka M?Smeeding T M,et al.2010.Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries[J].J ournal of Housing Economics,19(3):167-179.Garner J?Qiao H.2013.Chinese Household Consumption-most Likely US$1.6trn Larger than Officially Stated[R].Morgan Stanley Research,2013-02-23.Huang Y?Lynch C.2013.Unbalanced,but in a good way[J],China Economic Quarterly,9:35-40.Jin H.2008.The Overview of GDP Estimates and Related Issues in China[C].Paperpresented at the 13 th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts.Lardy N.2006.China?Toward a Consumption-driven Growth Path[C],Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper,No.PB06-6.Lardy N.2011.Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis[Z].Peterson Institute for International Economics?Washington,DC.Mayerhauser N?Reinsdorf M.2007.Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts[Z],Unpublished Manuscript.Perkins D.2012.Rapid growth and changing economic structure?The expenditure side story and its implications for China[J],China Economic Review,23(3):501-511.Poterba J.1992.Taxation and housing?Old questions,new answers[J],American Economic Revievus,82(2):237-242.Smeeding T M?Saunders P?Coder J S?et al.1993.Poverty,inequality,and family living standards impacts across seven nations:The effect of noncash subsidies for health,education,and housing[J].Review of Income and Wealth,39(3):229-256.Wei S J,Zhang X B.2011.The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China[J],J ournal of Political Economy,119(3):511-564.Yang D T,Zhang J,Zhou S.2011.Why are Saving Rates so High in China?[C].NBER Working Paper,No.16771.Yates J.1994.Imputed rent and income distribution[J].Revievu of Income and Wealth,40(1):43-64.“十一五”经济社会发展成就系列报告之九:全国城镇居民收支持续增长生活质量显著改善[EB/OL][2011-03-07].http://www.stats,gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/sywcj/t20110307_402708357.htm.程令国,张晔.2011.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?——对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,8:119-132.迟福林.2011.消费率持续下降深层次根源是投资导向[J].经济参考报,2011-05-20.方福前.2009.中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据[J].中国社会科学,2:68-82.高挺,哈继铭.2006.成长中的中国消费——中国居民消费总量和结构分析[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2006-03-10.郭万达,郑鑫,王东升,等.2012.我国居民住房租赁核算的方法选择[J].开放导报,总第161期,2:16-26.国家统计局.2010.中国非经济普查年度GDP核算方法[Z].2010年修订版,国民经济核算司.李稻葵,徐翔.2012.中国经济结构调整及其动力研究[R].清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究报告,总第45期.连平.2007.如何理性看待我国的消费率[N/OL].经济观察网,2007-06-26.http://www.eeo.com.cn/2007/0626/72979.shtml.刘洪玉,郑思齐,许宪春.2003.房地产业所包含经济活动的分类体系和增加值估算[J].统计研究,8:24-27.罗云毅.2000.关于消费率水平问题的思考[J].经济视角,5:4-7.罗云毅.2004.低消费、高投资是现阶段我国经济运行的常态[J].宏观经济研究,5:6-11.马建堂.2011.全面认识我国在世界经济中的地位[N].人民日报,2011-03-17,第16版.彭文生,等.2012.经济转型的消费轨道[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2012-05-06.万广华,张茵,牛建高.2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:35-44.汪伟.2009.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[M].经济学(季刊),9(1):29-52.王庆,Garner J F,章俊.2009.“中国消费不足”被夸大[R].摩根士丹利研究报告,2009-09-14.王小鲁.2007.灰色收入与居民收入差距[Z].中国改革基金会国民经济研究所工作论文.王小鲁.2010.灰色收入与国民收入分配[M].比较,3:1.王耀博.2011.如何破解公车改革制度难题[C].人民论坛,5:252-253.吴敬琏.2010.“首届财新峰会:变革世界的中国”发言[C].2010-11-05.http://finance,ifeng.com/news/special/zhongguoce/20101106/2837214.shtml.吴敬琏.2011.“中国发展高层论坛”发言[EB/OL][2011-03-19].http://finance,ifeng.com/news/20110319/3704171,shtml.夏书章.2006.公车改革[J].中国行政管理,6:89.许宪春,唐杰,殷勇,郭万达.2012.居民住房租赁核算及对消费率的影响——国际比较与中国的实证研究[J].开放导报,2:7-15.杨文辉.2012.利益格局与居民消费[J].经济研究,Sl:28-37.姚洋.2010.调整经济结构,重启改革议程[M].财经,2010(5).张军.2005.如何看待经济发展中的消费因素?[EB/OL].中评网,2005-11-10.http://www.china-review,com/sao.asp?id=17795.朱天,张军.2012a.破解中国消费不足论的迷思[N].中国经济时报,2012-09-06.朱天,张军.2012b.被误读的凯恩斯理论[N].经济观察报,2012-09-24.朱天,张军.2012c.中国的消费率太低?[EB/OL].FT中文网,2012-12-31.http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001048246.Aziz J,Li C.2007.Explaining China's low consumption?The Neglected Role of Household Income[C].IMF Working Paper,Asia and Pacific Department WP/07/181.Bonham C,Wiemer C.2013.Chinese saving dynamics:The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share[C].Oxford Economic Papers,65:173-196.Cai H,Fang H,Xu L.2011.Eat,drink,firms and governments:An investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures in Chinese firms[J].J ournal of Law and Economics,54(1):55-78.Chamon M?Prasad E.2010.Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?[J],American Economic]ournal:Macroeconomics,2(1):93-130.Diaz A?Luengo-Prado M.2008.On the user cost and homeownership[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,11(3):584-613.Frick J R.Grabka M.2003.Imputed rent and income inequality?A decomposition analysis for great Britain[J].West Germany and the U.S.Review of Income and Wealth,49(4):513-537.Frick J R?Grabka M?Smeeding T M,et al.2010.Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries[J].J ournal of Housing Economics,19(3):167-179.Garner J?Qiao H.2013.Chinese Household Consumption-most Likely US$1.6trn Larger than Officially Stated[R].Morgan Stanley Research,2013-02-23.Huang Y?Lynch C.2013.Unbalanced,but in a good way[J],China Economic Quarterly,9:35-40.Jin H.2008.The Overview of GDP Estimates and Related Issues in China[C].Paperpresented at the 13 th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts.Lardy N.2006.China?Toward a Consumption-driven Growth Path[C],Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper,No.PB06-6.Lardy N.2011.Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis[Z].Peterson Institute for International Economics?Washington,DC.Mayerhauser N?Reinsdorf M.2007.Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts[Z],Unpublished Manuscript.Perkins D.2012.Rapid growth and changing economic structure?The expenditure side story and its implications for China[J],China Economic Review,23(3):501-511.Poterba J.1992.Taxation and housing?Old questions,new answers[J],American Economic Revievus,82(2):237-242.Smeeding T M?Saunders P?Coder J S?et al.1993.Poverty,inequality,and family living standards impacts across seven nations:The effect of noncash subsidies for health,education,and housing[J].Review of Income and Wealth,39(3):229-256.Wei S J,Zhang X B.2011.The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China[J],J ournal of Political Economy,119(3):511-564.Yang D T,Zhang J,Zhou S.2011.Why are Saving Rates so High in China?[C].NBER Working Paper,No.16771.Yates J.1994.Imputed rent and income distribution[J].Revievu of Income and Wealth,40(1):43-64.“十一五”经济社会发展成就系列报告之九:全国城镇居民收支持续增长生活质量显著改善[EB/OL][2011-03-07].http://www.stats,gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/sywcj/t20110307_402708357.htm.程令国,张晔.2011.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?——对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,8:119-132.迟福林.2011.消费率持续下降深层次根源是投资导向[J].经济参考报,2011-05-20.方福前.2009.中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据[J].中国社会科学,2:68-82.高挺,哈继铭.2006.成长中的中国消费——中国居民消费总量和结构分析[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2006-03-10.郭万达,郑鑫,王东升,等.2012.我国居民住房租赁核算的方法选择[J].开放导报,总第161期,2:16-26.国家统计局.2010.中国非经济普查年度GDP核算方法[Z].2010年修订版,国民经济核算司.李稻葵,徐翔.2012.中国经济结构调整及其动力研究[R].清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究报告,总第45期.连平.2007.如何理性看待我国的消费率[N/OL].经济观察网,2007-06-26.http://www.eeo.com.cn/2007/0626/72979.shtml.刘洪玉,郑思齐,许宪春.2003.房地产业所包含经济活动的分类体系和增加值估算[J].统计研究,8:24-27.罗云毅.2000.关于消费率水平问题的思考[J].经济视角,5:4-7.罗云毅.2004.低消费、高投资是现阶段我国经济运行的常态[J].宏观经济研究,5:6-11.马建堂.2011.全面认识我国在世界经济中的地位[N].人民日报,2011-03-17,第16版.彭文生,等.2012.经济转型的消费轨道[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2012-05-06.万广华,张茵,牛建高.2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:35-44.汪伟.2009.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[M].经济学(季刊),9(1):29-52.王庆,Garner J F,章俊.2009.“中国消费不足”被夸大[R].摩根士丹利研究报告,2009-09-14.王小鲁.2007.灰色收入与居民收入差距[Z].中国改革基金会国民经济研究所工作论文.王小鲁.2010.灰色收入与国民收入分配[M].比较,3:1.王耀博.2011.如何破解公车改革制度难题[C].人民论坛,5:252-253.吴敬琏.2010.“首届财新峰会:变革世界的中国”发言[C].2010-11-05.http://finance,ifeng.com/news/special/zhongguoce/20101106/2837214.shtml.吴敬琏.2011.“中国发展高层论坛”发言[EB/OL][2011-03-19].http://finance,ifeng.com/news/20110319/3704171,shtml.夏书章.2006.公车改革[J].中国行政管理,6:89.许宪春,唐杰,殷勇,郭万达.2012.居民住房租赁核算及对消费率的影响——国际比较与中国的实证研究[J].开放导报,2:7-15.杨文辉.2012.利益格局与居民消费[J].经济研究,Sl:28-37.姚洋.2010.调整经济结构,重启改革议程[M].财经,2010(5).张军.2005.如何看待经济发展中的消费因素?[EB/OL].中评网,2005-11-10.http://www.china-review,com/sao.asp?id=17795.朱天,张军.2012a.破解中国消费不足论的迷思[N].中国经济时报,2012-09-06.朱天,张军.2012b.被误读的凯恩斯理论[N].经济观察报,2012-09-24.朱天,张军.2012c.中国的消费率太低?[EB/OL].FT中文网,2012-12-31.http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001048246.Aziz J,Li C.2007.Explaining China's low consumption?The Neglected Role of Household Income[C].IMF Working Paper,Asia and Pacific Department WP/07/181.Bonham C,Wiemer C.2013.Chinese saving dynamics:The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share[C].Oxford Economic Papers,65:173-196.Cai H,Fang H,Xu L.2011.Eat,drink,firms and governments:An investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures in Chinese firms[J].J ournal of Law and Economics,54(1):55-78.Chamon M?Prasad E.2010.Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?[J],American Economic]ournal:Macroeconomics,2(1):93-130.Diaz A?Luengo-Prado M.2008.On the user cost and homeownership[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,11(3):584-613.Frick J R.Grabka M.2003.Imputed rent and income inequality?A decomposition analysis for great Britain[J].West Germany and the U.S.Review of Income and Wealth,49(4):513-537.Frick J R?Grabka M?Smeeding T M,et al.2010.Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries[J].J ournal of Housing Economics,19(3):167-179.Garner J?Qiao H.2013.Chinese Household Consumption-most Likely US$1.6trn Larger than Officially Stated[R].Morgan Stanley Research,2013-02-23.Huang Y?Lynch C.2013.Unbalanced,but in a good way[J],China Economic Quarterly,9:35-40.Jin H.2008.The Overview of GDP Estimates and Related Issues in China[C].Paperpresented at the 13 th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts.Lardy N.2006.China?Toward a Consumption-driven Growth Path[C],Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper,No.PB06-6.Lardy N.2011.Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis[Z].Peterson Institute for International Economics?Washington,DC.Mayerhauser N?Reinsdorf M.2007.Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts[Z],Unpublished Manuscript.Perkins D.2012.Rapid growth and changing economic structure?The expenditure side story and its implications for China[J],China Economic Review,23(3):501-511.Poterba J.1992.Taxation and housing?Old questions,new answers[J],American Economic Revievus,82(2):237-242.Smeeding T M?Saunders P?Coder J S?et al.1993.Poverty,inequality,and family living standards impacts across seven nations:The effect of noncash subsidies for health,education,and housing[J].Review of Income and Wealth,39(3):229-256.Wei S J,Zhang X B.2011.The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China[J],J ournal of Political Economy,119(3):511-564.Yang D T,Zhang J,Zhou S.2011.Why are Saving Rates so High in China?[C].NBER Working Paper,No.16771.Yates J.1994.Imputed rent and income distribution[J].Revievu of Income and Wealth,40(1):43-64.“十一五”经济社会发展成就系列报告之九:全国城镇居民收支持续增长生活质量显著改善[EB/OL][2011-03-07].http://www.stats,gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/sywcj/t20110307_402708357.htm.程令国,张晔.2011.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?——对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,8:119-132.迟福林.2011.消费率持续下降深层次根源是投资导向[J].经济参考报,2011-05-20.方福前.2009.中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据[J].中国社会科学,2:68-82.高挺,哈继铭.2006.成长中的中国消费——中国居民消费总量和结构分析[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2006-03-10.郭万达,郑鑫,王东升,等.2012.我国居民住房租赁核算的方法选择[J].开放导报,总第161期,2:16-26.国家统计局.2010.中国非经济普查年度GDP核算方法[Z].2010年修订版,国民经济核算司.李稻葵,徐翔.2012.中国经济结构调整及其动力研究[R].清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究报告,总第45期.连平.2007.如何理性看待我国的消费率[N/OL].经济观察网,2007-06-26.http://www.eeo.com.cn/2007/0626/72979.shtml.刘洪玉,郑思齐,许宪春.2003.房地产业所包含经济活动的分类体系和增加值估算[J].统计研究,8:24-27.罗云毅.2000.关于消费率水平问题的思考[J].经济视角,5:4-7.罗云毅.2004.低消费、高投资是现阶段我国经济运行的常态[J].宏观经济研究,5:6-11.马建堂.2011.全面认识我国在世界经济中的地位[N].人民日报,2011-03-17,第16版.彭文生,等.2012.经济转型的消费轨道[R].中国国际金融有限公司宏观经济报告,2012-05-06.万广华,张茵,牛建高.2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:35-44.汪伟.2009.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[M].经济学(季刊),9(1):29-52.王庆,Garner J F,章俊.2009.“中国消费不足”被夸大[R].摩根士丹利研究报告,2009-09-14.王小鲁.2007.灰色收入与居民收入差距[Z].中国改革基金会国民经济研究所工作论文.王小鲁.2010.灰色收入与国民收入分配[M].比较,3:1.王耀博.2011.如何破解公车改革制度难题[C].人民论坛,5:252-253.吴敬琏.2010.“首届财新峰会:变革世界的中国”发言[C].2010-11-05.http://finance,ifeng.com/news/special/zhongguoce/20101106/2837214.shtml.吴敬琏.2011.“中国发展高层论坛”发言[EB/OL][2011-03-19].http://finance,ifeng.com/news/20110319/3704171,shtml.夏书章.2006.公车改革[J].中国行政管理,6:89.许宪春,唐杰,殷勇,郭万达.2012.居民住房租赁核算及对消费率的影响——国际比较与中国的实证研究[J].开放导报,2:7-15.杨文辉.2012.利益格局与居民消费[J].经济研究,Sl:28-37.姚洋.2010.调整经济结构,重启改革议程[M].财经,2010(5).张军.2005.如何看待经济发展中的消费因素?[EB/OL].中评网,2005-11-10.http://www.china-review,com/sao.asp?id=17795.朱天,张军.2012a.破解中国消费不足论的迷思[N].中国经济时报,2012-09-06.朱天,张军.2012b.被误读的凯恩斯理论[N].经济观察报,2012-09-24.朱天,张军.2012c.中国的消费率太低?[EB/OL].FT中文网,2012-12-31.http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001048246.Aziz J,Li C.2007.Explaining China's low consumption?The Neglected Role of Household Income[C].IMF Working Paper,Asia and Pacific Department WP/07/181.Bonham C,Wiemer C.2013.Chinese saving dynamics:The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share[C].Oxford Economic Papers,65:173-196.Cai H,Fang H,Xu L.2011.Eat,drink,firms and governments:An investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures in Chinese firms[J].J ournal of Law and Economics,54(1):55-78.Chamon M?Prasad E.2010.Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?[J],American Economic]ournal:Macroeconomics,2(1):93-130.Diaz A?Luengo-Prado M.2008.On the user cost and homeownership[J].R