孟醒,邱桓沛,申曙光

• 1:中山大学岭南学院

摘要(Abstract)：

近年来,经济增长与养老保险制度模式改革巳成为社会各界关注的两大热点话题。养老保险制度模式改革能否促进经济增长?本文首先采用2002—2012年的宏观省际面板数据,证实了养老金财富存在着对人力资本水平提升的激励效应。接着,利用2005年的养老保险政策改革机会,我们发现,积累制的增强有利于这一激励效应的加强,同时,门槛模型的检验结果表明,这种激励在不同省份之间存在"双重门槛效应"。本文建议在利用人力资本激励效应的同时,应尽量消除不同省份间的门槛,促进入力资本水平的全面均衡提升,以达到经济增长的最终目的。

关键词(KeyWords)： 养老金财富;人力资本水平;双重门槛效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目《新时期中国民生保障体系建设研究》(10zd&038)的研究成果之一

作者(Author): 孟醒,邱桓沛,申曙光

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2015.03.003

参考文献(References)：

• 封进.2004.中国养老保险体系改革的福利经济学分析[J].经济研究,(02):55-63.
• 高建伟,邱菀华.2002.现收现付制与部分积累制的缴费率模型[J].中国营理科学,(04):83-86.
• 郭庆旺,贾俊雪,赵志耘.2007.中国传统文化信念、人力资本积累与家庭养老保障机制[J].经济研究,(08):58-72.
• 刘国恩,Dow William H.,傅正泓等.2004.中国的健康人力资本与收入增长[J].经济学(季刊),(04):101-118.
• 彭浩然,申曙光.2007.现收现付制养老保险与经济增长:理论模型与中国经验[J].世界经济,(10):67-75.
• 彭浩然,吴木銮,孟醒.2013.中国财政分权对健康的影响[J].财贸经济,(11):33-44.
• 田永坡,郑磊,曹永峰.2008.人口老龄化、社会保障与人力资本投资[J].财经问题研究,(02):98-103.
• 汪伟.2012.人口老龄化、养老保险制度变革与中国经济增长——理论分析与数值模拟[J].金融研究,(10):29-45.
• 杨建芳,龚六堂,张庆华.2006.人力资本形成及其对经济增长的影响——一个包含教育和健康投入的内生增长模型及其检验[J].管理世界,(05):10-18.
• 袁志刚.2001.中国养老保险体系选择的经济学分析[J].经济研究,(05):13-19.
• 张盈华.2008.社会保障促进经济增长的机理研究[D].西安:西北大学.
• Becker G S,Murphy K M,Tamura R.1994.Human capital,fertility,and economic growth[M]//Human Capital:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education(3rd Edition).Chicago:The University of Chicago Press.
• Coile C,Gruber J.2000.Social security and retirement[R].National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Echevarria C A,Iza A.2006.Life expectancy,human capital,social security and growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,90(12):2323-2349.
• Ehrlich I,Kim J.2007.Social security and demographic trends:Theory and evidence from the international experience[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,10(1):55-77.
• Feldstein M.1974.Social security,induced retirement,and aggregate capital accumulation[J].The Journal of Political Economy,82(5):905-926.
• Feldstein M,Samwick A.1997.The economics of prefunding social security and medicare benefits[M]//NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997,MIT Press,12:115-164.
• Gruber J,Wise D.2004.Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World:Micro-Estimation(National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
• Hansen B E.1999.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,93(2):345-368.
• Jensen S H E,Lau M I,Poutvaara P.2004.Efficiency and equity aspects of alternative social security rules[J].FinanzArchiv:Public Finance Analysis,60(3):325-358.
• Kotlikoff L J.1996.Privatizing social security at home and abroad[J].The American Economic Review,86(2):368-372.
• Lau M I,Poutvaara P.2006.Social security incentives and human capital investment[J].Finnish Economic Papers,19(1):16-24.
• Lucas R E.1988.On the mechanics of economic development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,22(1):3-42.
• Merton R C.1987.A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information[J].The Journal of Finance,42(3):483-510.
• Mushkin S J.1962.Health as an investment[J].The Journal of Political Economy,70(5):129-157.
• Pogue T F,Sgontz L G.1977.Social security and investment in human capital[J].National Tax Journal,30(2):157-169.
• Romer P M.1986.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].The Journal of Political Economy,94(5):1002-1037.
• Samwick A A.1998.New evidence on pensions,social security,and the timing of retirement[J].Journal of Public Economics,70(2):207-236.
• Sen A.1998.Mortality as an indicator of economic success and failure[J].The Economic Journal,108(446):1-25.
• Stock J H,Wise D A.1990.The pension inducement to retire:An option value analysis[M]//Issues in the Economics of Aging.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
• Zhang J.1995.Social security and endogenous growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,58(2):185-213.
• Zhang Junsen,Zhang Junxi.1998.Social security,intergenerational transfers,and endogenous growth[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,31(5):1225-1241.
• ①详细求解过程见附录。
• ①本文附录对此关系作了一个粗略的讨论。