任晓怡,向海凌,吴非

• 1:广东金融学院行为金融与区域实验室
• 2:暨南大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

经济增长目标管理作为中国政府经济治理的一个重要工具,会显著影响经济、金融市场的稳定性。本文基于中国2007—2017年上市企业数据为基础,分析地方经济增长目标如何影响企业的股价崩盘风险。研究发现,地方经济增长目标设定过高,会对企业的股价崩盘风险有显著的提升作用,上述结论在经过多重稳健性检验后依旧显著成立。从影响机制来看,地方经济增长目标设定的提高,宏观上会导致地方政府的干预力度加强并带来更为严重的财政不平衡;微观上会加剧企业的过度投资倾向并导致全要素生产率的降低,这些都导致了企业股价崩盘风险水平的进一步提增。本文还发现,地方政府激励结构显著地影响了地方经济增长目标管理作用于企业股价崩盘风险的效果:在"为增长而竞争"和"层层加码"的导向下,地方经济增长目标对企业股价崩盘风险的不利冲击更为明显,但随着新时代下经济高质量发展成为主流,这种行为激励结构出现了一定的转变端倪,并降低了地方经济增长目标对企业风险乃至金融市场稳定的负向冲击。本文可以为理解中国政府经济管理行为提供重要线索,并为政府制度优化和经济增长提供相关启示。

关键词(KeyWords)： 经济增长目标;股价崩盘风险;为增长而竞争;层层加码;策略转向

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“利率市场化结构效应的分层传导与区域金融异质性风险防范研究”(71874038);国家自然科学基金青年项目“区域经济关联与金融资源竞争的空间动态效应研究”(71603059);; 广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“高质量发展背景下粤港澳大湾区金融科技创新的空间效应及其监管研究——基于广东省案例”(GD19YYJ06);; 广州市哲学社会科学规划羊城青年学人项目“企业金融化影响技术创新的异质特征、影响机制与治理——基于粤港澳大湾区案例”(2020GZQN44)的资助;; 区域金融政策研究中心

作者(Author): 任晓怡,向海凌,吴非

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2020.02.001

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• (1)在经济下行压力陡增的大环境下,投资已经成为地方政府维系当地经济增长稳定的有效驱动。但随着政策的收紧,即便是金融机构也多不愿意将授信给予政府。因此,PPP模式成为地方政府投融资工具篮子中的重要手段,PPP在近年的热度也一直呈现上升趋势。与此同时,也出现了支出责任“固化”、支出上限“虚化”、运营内容“淡化”、适用范围“泛化”等问题,极大地弱化了市场配置资源的作用,也消耗和浪费了大量的社会公共资源和财政资金。
• (2)由于西藏自治区的上市企业十分稀少,且该地的宏观经济数据缺失较多,与同时期其余地方相比存在着较大的差异。因此,本文对西藏自治区的数据进行了剔除处理。
• (3)囿于篇幅,在后文的实证检验中,本文略去了相关控制变量的回归结果。存留备索。
• (4)该数据来源于中国知网(http://cnki.net/)中的《中国重要报纸全文数据库》。以公司股票代码、股票简称、公司全称等作为关键词,检索相关新闻报道,在此基础上,按照时间发生的年份加总各上市公司的正面和负面媒体报道数量。