赵大萍,史历,周宁伟,张琳琬

• 1:首都经济贸易大学金融学院

摘要(Abstract)：

“老有所养”不仅是老年人的基本需求，也是未老者的重要预期，因此养老规划必定是家庭层面福利函数的重要变量。现有文献多把养老金视为既定待遇，忽视居民主动规划对家庭消费可能的影响。本文将居民养老规划分为家庭养老规划、社会养老规划和自我养老规划，通过构建三阶段世代交叠(OLG)模型，从理论层面分析居民养老财务规划对家庭消费水平的影响机制，并使用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)进行实证检验。研究表明不同的养老规划对家庭消费存在不同影响，家庭养老规划通过遗赠动机抑制家庭消费，社会养老规划通过工作稳定性和预防性储蓄动机促进家庭消费，而自我养老规划通过提高风险金融资产投资与资产配置效率促进家庭消费。异质性分析发现，在家庭关系较紧密的家庭中，家庭养老规划对家庭消费的抑制作用更显著；在人力资本较低与农村地区的家庭中，社会养老规划对家庭消费的促进作用更显著；在不存在流动性约束的家庭中，自我养老规划对家庭消费的促进作用更显著。本文的结论可为代际交叠框架下的消费理论提供中国边际微观证据，为老龄化背景下如何释放消费潜力提供学术参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 养老规划;家庭消费;遗赠动机;预防性储蓄动机;OLG模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金青年项目“人口老龄化对家庭财富不平等的影响及对策研究”(24CJY115)的资助

作者(Author): 赵大萍,史历,周宁伟,张琳琬

参考文献(References)：

• 曹伟，刘桂岭，曾利飞，等.2023.家庭养老与社会养老融合对居民储蓄率的影响研究[J].经济研究，58(3):172-190.Cao W,Liu G L,Zeng L F,et al.2023.The impact of the integration of family pension and social pension on residents' savings rate[J].Economic Research Journal,58(3):172-190.(in Chinese) 昌忠泽，姜珂.2021.储蓄动机与老年人储蓄之谜——兼论政府支出的调节效应[J].经济学动态，(4):68-87.Chang Z Z,Jiang K.2021.Saving motives and the elderly savings puzzle—Also on the moderating effect of government expenditure[J].Economic Perspectives,(4):68-87.(in Chinese) 陈建，黄少安.2013.遗产动机与财富效应的权衡：以房养老可行吗?[J].经济研究，48(9):56-70.Chen J,Huang S A.2013.Trade-offs between bequest motives and wealth effects:Is housing reverse mortgaging in China feasible?[J].Economic Research Journal,48(9):56-70.(in Chinese) 陈莹，孔祥钊，赵桂芹.2023.遗赠动机与多层次养老保险参与：抑制还是促进?[J].保险研究，(3):70-86.Chen Y,Kong X Z,Zhao G Q.2023.Bequest motivation and participation in multi-tier pension system:Inhibition or promotion?[J].Insurance Studies,(3):70-86.(in Chinese) 陈洋林，李加明，张长全.2020.商业保险资产配置的消费效应研究——来自CFPS的证据[J].当代经济管理，42(6):89-97.Chen Y L,Li J M,Zhang C Q.2020.Study on the consumption effect of commercial insurance asset allocation—Evidence from CFPS[J].Contemporary Economic Management,42(6):89-97.(in Chinese) 方匡南，章紫艺.2013.社会保障对城乡家庭消费的影响研究[J].统计研究，30(3):51-58.Fang K N,Zhang Z Y.2013.Study on effects of social security on household consumption[J].Statistical Research,30(3):51-58.(in Chinese) 甘犁，尹志超，贾男，等.2013.中国家庭资产状况及住房需求分析[J].金融研究，(4):1-14.Gan L,Yin Z C,Jia N,et al.2013.Assets and residential demand of Chinese households[J].Journal of Financial Research,(4):1-14.(in Chinese) 甘犁，赵乃宝，孙永智.2018.收入不平等、流动性约束与中国家庭储蓄率[J].经济研究，53(12):34-50.Gan L,Zhao N B,Sun Y Z.2018.Income inequality,liquidity constraints and China's household savings rate[J].Economic Research Journal,53(12):34-50.(in Chinese) 高凯，胡秋明.2022.税负公平视角下商业养老保险税惠模式优化研究[J].保险研究，(11):61-76.Gao K,Hu Q M.2022.A research on the tax preference mode optimization of commercial pension insurance from the tax equity perspective[J].Insurance Studies,(11):61-76.(in Chinese) 桂文林，陈东亨，董文晋.2022.人口老龄化与家庭金融资产配置——基于倾向得分匹配法的实证研究[J].西北人口，43(3):58-68.Gui W L,Chen D H,Dong W J.2022.Aging and the allocation efficiency of household financial assets:An empirical research based on PSM model[J].Northwest Population Journal,43(3):58-68.(in Chinese) 韩永辉，刘洋.2024.少子老龄化、工业智能化与宏观经济波动——基于内生经济增长理论的DSGE模型分析[J].管理世界，40(1):20-37,60.Han Y H,Liu Y.2024.Low fertility and aging,industrial intelligence and macroeconomic fluctuations:An analysis of DSGE model based on endogenous economic growth theory[J].Management World,40(1):20-37,60.(in Chinese) 侯蕾，杨欣桐，李奇.2021.中国城镇家庭的遗产动机：基于微观家庭金融数据的估计[J].世界经济，44(5):79-104.Hou L,Yang X T,Li Q.2021.Urban household bequest motive in China:An estimation based on micro household finance data[J].The Journal of World Economy,44(5):79-104.(in Chinese) 黄少安，孙涛.2005.非正规制度、消费模式和代际交叠模型——东方文化信念中居民消费特征的理论分析[J].经济研究，40(4):57-65.Huang S A,Sun T.2005.Informal institutions,consumption modes and assumption of OLG model—A theoretical analysis on households' consumption in the oriental culture and belief[J].Economic Research Journal,40(4):57-65.(in Chinese) 康书隆，余海跃，王志强.2017.基本养老保险与城镇家庭消费：基于借贷约束视角的分析[J].世界经济，40(12):165-188.Kang S L,Yu H Y,Wang Z Q.2017.The basic pension scheme and urban household consumption:An analysis from the perspective of liquidity constraints[J].The Journal of World Economy,40(12):165-188.(in Chinese) 况伟大，王湘君，葛玉好.2018.老龄化、遗产动机与房价[J].中国软科学，(12):44-55.Kuang W D,Wang X J,Ge Y H.2018.Aging,bequest motives and housing price[J].China Soft Science,(12):44-55.(in Chinese) 李静.2015.社会保障预期、出生率与人口质量[J].中国软科学，(2):85-95.Li J.2015.Social security expectation,birth rate and population quality[J].China Soft Science,(2):85-95.(in Chinese) 李响，杨雅鑫，邹玥萌，等.2023.金融知识、金融市场参与度与消费升级[J].金融论坛，28(12):28-53.Li X,Yang Y X,Zou Y M,et al.2023.Financial literacy,household financial market participation and consumption upgrade[J].Finance Forum,28(12):28-53.(in Chinese) 马光荣，周广肃.2014.新型农村养老保险对家庭储蓄的影响：基于CFPS数据的研究[J].经济研究，49(11):116-129.Ma G R,Zhou G S.2014.The impacts of new rural pension program on household saving:Evidence from CFPS [J].Economic Research Journal,49(11):116-129.(in Chinese) 毛羽，陈秉正.2022.长寿风险认知扭曲对养老财务准备的影响[J].保险研究，(11):46-60.Mao Yu,Chen B Z.2022.The impact of distorted longevity risk cognition on financial preparation for retirement[J].Insurance Studies,(11):46-60.(in Chinese) 田子方，李涛，伏霖.2022.家庭关系与居民消费[J].经济研究，57(6):173-190.Tian Z F,Li T,Fu L.2022.Family network and household consumption[J].Economic Research Journal,57(6):173-190.(in Chinese) 吴雨，李晓，李洁，等.2021.数字金融发展与家庭金融资产组合有效性[J].管理世界，37(7):92-104,7.Wu Y,Li X,Li J,et al.2021.Digital finance and household portfolio efficiency[J].Management World,37(7):92-104,7.(in Chinese) 余靖雯，麦东仁，龚六堂.2023.社会养老保险、家庭隔代抚养与老年人健康[J].经济学(季刊),23(1):108-124.Yu J W,Mai D R,Gong L T.2023.Social pension program,grandparenting and the health of the elderly[J].China Economic Quarterly,23(1):108-124.(in Chinese) 易行健，周聪，来特，等.2019.商业医疗保险与家庭风险金融资产投资——来自CHFS数据的证据[J].经济科学，(5):104-116. 郑婉仪，陈秉正.2003.企业年金对我国退休职工养老保险收入替代率影响的实证分析[J].管理世界，(11):64-70.Zheng W Y,Chen B Z.2003.A case study of the effect of enterprise's annuity upon the substitution rate of endowment assurance income of China's retired workers and staff[J].Management World,(11):64-70.(in Chinese) 朱铭来，申宇鹏，康琢.2024.延迟退休意愿、医疗服务利用与健康收益[J].经济学(季刊),24(1):84-100.Zhu M L,Shen Y P,Kang Z.2024.Delayed retirement intention,medical service utilization and health benefits[J].China Economic Quarterly,24(1):84-100.(in Chinese) 庄新田，汪天棋.2022.金融素养对我国家庭养老规划的影响——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的分析[J].中国经济问题，(2):55-70.Zhuang X T,Wang T Q.2022.The effect of financial literacy on household retirement planning in China:Analysis based on the data of China household finance survey[J].China Economic Studies,(2):55-70.(in Chinese) Alm??s I,Freddi E,Th??gersen ??.2020.Saving and bequest in China:An analysis of intergenerational exchange[J].Economica,87(345):249-281. Bernheim B D,Shleifer A,Summers L H.1985.The strategic bequest motive[J].Journal of Political Economy,93(6):1045-1076. Buiter W H,Kletzer K M.1995.Capital mobility,Fiscal policy,and growth under self-financing of human capital formation[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,28:S163-S194. Chen D H,Xiao C,Zang J H,et al.2018.Old-age social insurance and household consumption:Evidence from China[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,54(13):2948-2964. De Nardi M,French E,Jones J B.2010.Why do the elderly save?The role of medical expenses[J].Journal of Political Economy,118(1):39-75. Deaton A.1991.Saving and liquidity constraints[J].Econometrica,59(5):1221-1248. Duflo E.2000.Child health and household resources in South Africa:Evidence from the old age pension program[J].American Economic Review,90(2):393-398. Guariglia A,Rossi M.2004.Private medical insurance and saving:Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey[J].Journal of Health Economics,23(4):761-783. Lachowska M,Myck M.2018.The effect of public pension wealth on saving and expenditure[J].American Economic Journal:Economic Policy,10(3):284-308. Skinner J.1989.Housing wealth and aggregate saving[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,19(2):305-324. Zeldes S P.1989.Consumption and liquidity constraints:An empirical investigation[J].Journal of Political Economy,97(2):305-346.
• ① 依据联合国标准，当一国(或地区)60岁及以上人口占比超过10%,即可被视为“老龄化社会”(ageing society);当该比例突破 14%,则进一步升级为“老龄社会”(aged society),或称“深度老龄化社会”。我国2000年第五次人口普查时60岁及以上人口比重达10.33%,至2021年第七次全国人口普查时，同一占比升至18.7%。 (1)12%的居民具有多种养老财务规划。 (2)国家统计局:《人口老龄化及其衡量标准是什么》,2023年1月1日。