汪伟,王建楠,魏下海,吴梦萱

• 1:上海财经大学公共管理学院
• 2:上海财经大学中国式现代化研究院
• 3:华侨大学经济与金融学院

摘要(Abstract)：

基于中国劳动力动态调查2012年、2014年和2016年数据，结合城市层面的机器人安装密度数据，本文考察了机器人应用对个体劳动参与决策的影响。实证结果表明：(1)机器人应用每上升10%,个体的劳动参与率显著增加2.31%,且该结论在经过一系列检验后依然保持稳健。(2)机制分析显示，机器人应用有利于增加就业、促进技能提升与匹配、改善工作状况、优化劳动者状态，进而提高个体劳动参与。(3)异质性分析显示，不同群体受机器人应用的影响存在差异，其对女性、中青年、健康群体以及低技能和高技能个体的劳动参与促进作用更为显著。基于此，本文认为中国可以通过推动机器人应用的发展来释放潜在劳动力，缓解因人口老龄化和少子化所造成的劳动力短缺；同时，政府也需要事先防范机器人应用可能引发的劳动参与不平等问题，促进劳动力市场的公平健康发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 机器人应用;劳动参与;劳动力供给

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金重大项目“全面实施供给侧结构性改革研究”(22ZDA049)、国家社科基金项目“人口老龄化的收入不平等效应及对策研究”(23VRC052);; 福建省社会科学基金重点项目“人工智能对福建劳动力市场的重塑机制与包容性就业政策研究”(FJ2026A005);; 上海高校东方学者特聘教授支持计划(2023140001);; 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2024110355,2023110395,2023110310,CXJJ-2024-351,CXJJ-2024-359);; 上海财经大学校立科研项目“中国人口与经济高质量协调发展研究”(2025110511)的资助

作者(Author): 汪伟,王建楠,魏下海,吴梦萱

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• (1)根据国家统计局最新数据,2022年中国劳动年龄人口(15～64岁)为96289万人,劳动参与率下降6.2%会导致劳动年龄人口供给减少96289×6.2%=5969.918万,约6000万人。 (2)我国机器人产业迈向中高端(科技视点)-人民日报( https://gxt.hebei.gov.cn/hbgyhxxht/xwzx32/snxw40/938070/index.html)。 (3)有部分无工作群体回答自己有寻找工作,但在具体询问做了哪些与找工作相关的事时又回答什么都没做,存在自相矛盾。 (4)工作极化是指高技能和低技能职业的就业份额同时迅速增加,但中等技能职业就业份额反而下降的异常现象(Goos and Manning,2007),有大量论文对该现象进行研究(Goos et al.,2009,2014;Oesch and Rodríguez Menés,2011;Peugny,2019)。