章少宾,杨惠媛,石宝峰

• 1:江西水利电力大学工商管理学院
• 2:西北农林科技大学经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

在大食物观背景下，我们应探索蛋白饲料来源多元化。本文从产业链视角分析了大豆的市场竞争结构，测算了豆粕与其他蛋白饲料原料、豆油与其他植物油的需求价格弹性，剖析了大豆需求刚性的深层次原因。基于系统动力学方法构建并仿真了大豆需求系统，通过情景模拟分析豆粕减量替代、国产大豆产能提升、进口产品多元化等在降低大豆对外依存度中的作用。主要结论有以下几点。(1)蛋白饲料市场供需不匹配，豆粕在蛋白饲料原料中的占比连年提高，挤占了其他蛋白饲料的市场份额，相比于豆粕，其他蛋白饲料更具需求刚性。(2)豆粕需求是引起大豆需求刚性的主要因素。2019年后，豆粕拉动的大豆需求超过豆油拉动的大豆需求。且其他蛋白饲料对豆粕的替代能力较差，而豆油与其他植物油之间存在较强的替代性。(3)我国大豆及其副产品需求已经见顶，进入结构调整阶段。降低豆粕在蛋白饲料中的占比，提升单产与种植面积，增加豆粕进口可以有效地提升大豆自给率。本文在探索降低大豆对外依赖度的空间与路径上具有现实参考价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 大豆需求;大豆产业链;市场竞争结构;蛋白饲料市场

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划课题“大宗商品价格风险监测评估与预警技术及平台”(2023YFC3305104)的资助

作者(Author): 章少宾,杨惠媛,石宝峰

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