李勇,段诗宁

• 1:西北大学经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

对于金融结构转型是否有利于人力资本升级这一问题，本文构建理论模型证明：当技术风险较低时，创新企业的破产风险较低，银行融资是更为有效的融资方式，吸纳的人力资本水平也较高，提高金融市场水平将无助于企业人力资本升级；与之相对应，当生产率较高、技术风险较大时，创新企业虽然面临着较大的破产风险，但其可以通过“利益共享”的方式获得股票投资，分担技术风险，故股票融资成为更为有效的融资方式，吸纳的人力资本水平则更高，提高金融市场水平将会对人力资本升级需求产生积极影响。进一步，本文利用2000—2019年CSMAR上市公司数据库和省际宏观数据进行匹配，并在此基础上进行实证检验，结果证实了上述假说。最后，本文得出了结论和相应的启示。

关键词(KeyWords)： 金融结构;技术风险;破产风险;人力资本升级

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年项目“行政垄断下人力资本错配对企业创新效率损失的影响研究”(71704141);; 陕西省社会科学基金一般项目“陕西省人力资本配置促进经济高质量发展的机理与路径研究”(2023D016)的资助

作者(Author): 李勇,段诗宁

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)证明过程详见附录。 (2)其中,■满足(p*)的定义■,详细推导过程见附录。 (3)化简临界概率可得:■,由于■∈[0,1],便可证明该结论。 (4)融资约束是本文即将讨论的中介变量,将其加入控制变量中可能会引起坏控制(Bad Control),导致估计系数的不一致,故本文仅将其作为中介变量加以控制。 (5)Kaiser and Siengenthaler(2016)指出融资方式的不同会影响企业的融资约束,进而影响企业的研发投入、资本品投入与人力资本投资,从而促进人力资本的升级。由于福利费数据缺失严重,考虑到数据的可得性,本文选择融资约束、创新投资水平、资本投入结构作为中介变量。 (6)为了剔除量纲对于核心解释变量估计系数的影响,我们还使用标准化系数对式(5)～(8)重新进行了估计,结果发现EFP的标准化系数分别为0.041、0.030、0.032、0.035,DFP的标准化系数分别为0.022、0.018、0.026、0.024,说明企业人力资本升级较大程度上依赖于权益性融资的比例。 (7)标准化系数的估计结果同样遵循了上述趋势。 (8)融资结构的相关系数也遵从了这一变化趋势。 (9)我们使用核心解释变量的滞后一期和二期作为工具变量进行估计,估计结果表明模型选择的工具变量合适,不存在过度识别(Sargan检验),自相关检验[AR(1)和AR(2)]也说明模型不存在一阶自相关,存在二阶自相关,从而说明SYS-GMM的估计结果是较为可信的。 (10)具体方法为:删除工业增加值、全部从业人员年平均人数、固定资产净值年平均余额、流动资产净值年平均余额、全年营业收入、主营业务收入、资产总计为负的样本,删除年平均从业人员人数8以下的样本,删除固定资产净值年平均余额小于资产总计、流动资产净值年平均余额小于资产总计、全年营业收入小于主营业务收入的样本。同时,为了剔除异常值的干扰,本文还对所有变量进行了前后各1%的缩尾(winsorize)处理。 (11)债务性融资估计系数的显著性和变化趋势与表2和表3一致。 (12)鉴于篇幅所限,具体的估计结果不再详细列出,有兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。