贾男,雷莲莲

• 1:西南财经大学经济学院
• 2:美国罗彻斯特大学

摘要(Abstract)：

在老龄化和留守老人问题日益严重的今天,如何有效提高农村老年人的健康状况是非常重要的研究课题。本文以高血压病为例,研究了影响老年人健康状况的因素之一——自我健康认知偏差。在对农村老年人的体检结果中发现,25.8%的老人(71.6%患有高血压的老人)对自己的血压状况没有正确的认识,即对自身健康状况的认知存在偏差。本文通过建立Ordered Probit模型,并用最大似然估计(MLE)对认知偏差与老年人的健康状况是否存在因果关系进行了检验。结果发现在其他条件不变的情况下,自我健康认知偏差对老年人的健康状况有着显著的负向影响,有认知偏差的老年人达到最佳健康状况的概率比无认知偏差的老年人低23.7%~25.6%。进一步的分析发现,有认知偏差的老人由于并不清楚自身真实的健康状况,对自身的健康投资明显低于没有认知偏差的老人,其中购买医疗保险的概率低40.1%,用于自身的医疗支出少34.5%左右。自我健康认知偏差导致的健康投资不足是影响老年人健康状况的重要因素。

关键词(KeyWords)： 认知偏差;ADL/IADL;健康投资;最大似然估计

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国家庭财富的代际转移与代间转移研究”(项目批准号:13YJC790056);; 国家自然科学基金青年项目“大宗消费对中国家庭储蓄率的影响——基于跨期动态优化模型的结构估计和政策模拟(71303189)”的资助

作者(Author): 贾男,雷莲莲

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2016.03.006

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• (1)由于老年人的年龄已经反映了健康状况随时间的变化,在控制变量中我们未再控制时间趋势变量。
• (1)当k=1时,y的J种分类发生的概率之和等于1;同理,当k=0时,y的J种分类发生的概率之和也等于1,因此二者之差等于0。