马强文,赵玉阳,张艺馨

• 1:中南财经政法大学经济学院
• 2:中南财经政法大学
• 3:里昂商学院

摘要(Abstract)：

户籍制度改革在推动城市化进程的同时，也推高了城市住房价格。借助于近年来人才落户政策的“准自然实验”,本文利用26个省会城市2006—2018年间的面板数据，通过双重差分法研究了人才落户政策对城市房价波动的影响。实证分析表明：“人才落户”政策对城市房价波动有显著影响，其影响程度取决于城市交通和教育的发展水平，即交通运输条件越好，教育水平越高的城市房价上涨越明显。进一步的机制分析发现，人才引进能够提高城市信贷规模和创新水平。这为城市如何完善人才落户政策提供了重要启示。

关键词(KeyWords)： 户籍制度;住房价格;双重差分法

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校青年教师创新项目(2722020JCG015)的资助

作者(Author): 马强文,赵玉阳,张艺馨

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2022.03.003

参考文献(References)：

• 蔡昉，都阳，王美艳.2001.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究，(12):41-49.Cai F,Du Y,Wang M Y.2001.Household registration system and labor market protection[J].Economic Research Journal,(12):41-49.(in Chinese)
• 陈斌开，金箫，欧阳涤非.2015.住房价格、资源错配与中国工业企业生产率[J].世界经济，38(4):77-98.Chen B K,Jin X,Ouyang D F.2015.Housing prices,resource misallocation and productivity of industrial enterprises in China[J].World Economics,38(4):77-98.(in Chinese)
• 陈斌开，徐帆，谭力.2012.人口结构转变与中国住房需求：1999—2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究[J].金融研究，(1):129-140.Chen B K,Xu F,Tan L.2012.Demography dynamics and housing demand in China:1999—2025—Evidence from census data[J].Journal of Financial Research,(1):129-140.(in Chinese)
• 陈斌开，张川川.2016.人力资本和中国城市住房价格[J].中国社会科学，(5):43-64.Chen B K,Zhang C C.2016.Human capital and housing prices in Chinese cities[J].Social Sciences in China,(5):43-64.(in Chinese)
• 陈创练，戴明晓.2018.货币政策、杠杆周期与房地产市场价格波动[J].经济研究，53(9):52-67.Chen C L,Dai M X.2018.Monetary policy,leverage cycle and price fluctuation of real estate market[J].Economic Research Journal,53(9):52-67.(in Chinese)
• 陈小亮，李三希，陈彦斌.2018.地方政府激励机制重构与房价调控长效机制建设[J].中国工业经济，(11):79-97.Chen X L,Li S X,Chen Y B.2018.Redesigning the incentive mechanism of local governments and the long-term mechanism of house price control[J].China Industrial Economics,(11):79-97.(in Chinese)
• 陈彦斌，邱哲圣.2011.高房价如何影响居民储蓄率和财产不平等[J].经济研究，46(10):25-38.Chen Y B,Qiu Z S.2011.How does housing price affect household saving rate and wealth inequality?[J].Economic Research Journal,46(10):25-38.(in Chinese)
• 都阳，蔡昉，屈小博，等.2014.延续中国奇迹：从户籍制度改革中收获红利[J].经济研究，49(8):4-13,78.Du Y,Cai F,Qu X B,et al.2014.Sustain the China miracle:Reaping the dividends from Hukou reforms[J].Economic Research Journal,49(8):4-13,78.(in Chinese)
• 段忠东.2007.房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究，24(12):127-139.Duan Z D.2007.The relationship between house price and inflation,output[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,24(12):127-139.(in Chinese)
• 范剑勇，莫家伟，张吉鹏.2015.居住模式与中国城镇化——基于土地供给视角的经验研究[J].中国社会科学，(4):44-63,205.Fan J Y,Mo J W,Zhang J P.2015.Residential patterns and urbanization in China:An empirical study from the perspective of land supply[J].Social Sciences in China,(4):44-63,205.(in Chinese)
• 范新英，张所地.2018.创新集聚对城市房价影响的实证研究[J].经济问题探索，(1):63-69.Fan X Y,Zhang S D.2018.An empirical study on the impact of innovation agglomeration on urban housing price[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,(1):63-69.(in Chinese)
• 纪建悦，朱彦滨.2008.基于面板数据的我国科技人才流动动因研究[J].人口与经济，(5):32-37.Ji J Y,Zhu Y B.2008.Research on the flow of scientific and technological personnel in China based on panel data[J].Population & Economics,(5):32-37.(in Chinese)
• 贾春梅，葛扬.2015.城市行政级别、资源集聚能力与房价水平差异[J].财经问题研究，(10):131-137.Jia C M,Ge Y.2015.Differences between city administrative level,resource agglomeration capacity and housing price level[J].Research on Financial and Economic Issues,(10):131-137.(in Chinese)
• 江艇，孙鲲鹏，聂辉华.2018.城市级别、全要素生产率和资源错配[J].管理世界，34(3):38-50,77,183.Jiang Y,Sun K P,Nie H H.2018.City level,total factor productivity and resource mismatch[J].Management world,(3) :38-50,77,183.(in Chinese)
• 况伟大.2010.利率对房价的影响[J].世界经济，33(4):134-145.Kuang W D.2010.The influence of interest rate on housing price[J].The Journal of World Economy,33(4):134-145.(in Chinese)
• 况伟大，朱勇，刘江涛.2012.房产税对房价的影响：来自OECD国家的证据[J].财贸经济，(5):121-129.Kuang W D,Zhu Y,Liu J T.2012.The impact of property tax upon housing price:Evidence from OECD countries[J].Finance & Trade Economics,(5):121-129.(in Chinese)
• 厉以宁.2003.资本主义的起源：经济比较研究[M].北京：商务印书馆.
• 梁云芳，高铁梅.2006.我国商品住宅销售价格波动成因的实证分析[J].管理世界，(8):76-82.Liang Y F,Gao T M.2006.A case study of the causes for the fluctuation of prices of China's residential houses[J].Management World,(8):76-82.(in Chinese)
• 林毅夫.2008.中国经济专题[M].北京：北京大学出版社：87.
• 刘江涛，张波，黄志刚.2012.限购政策与房价的动态变化[J].经济学动态，(3):47-54.Liu J T,Zhang B,Huang Z G.Purchase restriction policy and dynamic change of housing price[J].Economic Dynamics,2012(3):47-54.(in Chinese)
• 刘智勇，李海峥，胡永远，等.2018.人力资本结构高级化与经济增长——兼论东中西部地区差距的形成和缩小[J].经济研究，53(3):50-63.Liu Z Y,Li H Z,Hu Y Y,et al.2018.Human capital structure upgrading and economic growth:A reconsideration of disparities among China's eastern,central and western regions[J].Economic Research Journal,53(3):50-63.(in Chinese)
• 陆铭，欧海军，陈斌开.2014.理性还是泡沫：对城市化、移民和房价的经验研究[J].世界经济，37(1):30-54.Lu M,Ou H J,Chen B K.2014.Rationality or bubble:An empirical study on urbanization,migration and housing price[J].The Journal of World Economy,37(1):30-54.(in Chinese)
• 骆永民.2011.城市化对房价的影响：线性还是非线性?——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].财经研究，37(4):135-144.Luo Y M.2011.The impact of urbanization on housing prices:Linear or nonlinear?—Based on an empirical analysis of the four kinds of panel data regression model[J].Journal of Financial Research,5(4) :135-144.(in Chinese)
• 吕江林.2010.我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的度量[J].经济研究，45(6):28-41.Lyu J L.Economic research journal,2010,45(6):28-41.(in Chinese)
• 平新乔，陈敏彦.2004.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势[J].世界经济，27(7):3-10.Ping X Q,Chen M Y.2004.Real estate financing,the price of land and the trend of housing price[J].The Journal of World Economy,27(7):3-10.(in Chinese)
• 蒲火元，曹宗平，李超.2018.人口流动对中心城市房价的影响：以广州为例[J].南方人口，33(5):27-40.Pu H Y,Cao Z P,Li C.2018.The impact of population mobility on housing prices in central cities:A case study of Guangzhou[J].South China population,33(5):27-40.(in Chinese)
• 时寒冰.2014.行政权力与中国房价的阶梯状格局[J].经济社会体制比较，(6):188-196.Shi H B.2014.The administrative power and ladder shape distribution of property prices in China[J].Comparative Economic & Social Systems,(6):188-196.(in Chinese)
• 汤韵，梁若冰.2016.限购为何无法控制房价——来自婚姻市场的解释[J].经济学动态，(11):45-56.Tang Y,Liang R B.2016.Why the Purchase restriction cannot control the housing price:An explanation from the marriage market[J].Economic Trends,(11):45-56.(in Chinese)
• 王成成，王晓辉.2011.宏观经济对房地产价格的影响——基于中国省际的动态面板数据[J].经济管理，33(9):153-159.Wang C C,Wang X H.2011.The impact of macroeconomic on real estate prices:Evidence from thirty-one provinces in China[J].Economic Management,33(9):153-159.(in Chinese)
• 王春杨，兰宗敏，张超，等.2020.高铁建设、人力资本迁移与区域创新[J].中国工业经济，(12):102-120.Wang C Y,Lan Z M,Zhang C,et al.2020.High-speed rail construction,human capital migration and regional innovation[J].China Industrial Economics,(12):102-120.(in Chinese)
• 王频，侯成琪.2017.预期冲击、房价波动与经济波动[J].经济研究，52(4):48-63.Wang P,Hou C Q.2017.Expectation shock,housing price volatility and economic volatility[J].Economic Research Journal,52(4):48-63.(in Chinese)
• 吴晓瑜，王敏，李力行.2014.中国的高房价是否阻碍了创业?[J].经济研究，49(9):121-134.Wu X Y,Wang M,Li L X.2014.Are China's high housing prices deterring entrepreneurship?[J].Economic Research Journal,49(9):121-134.(in Chinese)
• 徐建炜，徐奇渊，何帆.2012.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素：国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济，35(1):24-42.Xu J W,Xu Q Y,He F.2012.Demographic factors behind rising housing prices:International experience and evidence from China[J].The Journal of World Economy,35(1):24-42.(in Chinese)
• 徐忠，张雪春，邹传伟.2012.房价、通货膨胀与货币政策——基于中国数据的研究[J].金融研究，(6):1-12.Xu Z,Zhang X C,Zou C W.2012.Housing price,inflation and monetary policy:An empirical study based on Chinese data[J].Journal of Financial Research,(6):1-12.(in Chinese)
• 颜色，朱国钟.2013.“房奴效应”还是“财富效应”?——房价上涨对国民消费影响的一个理论分析[J].管理世界，(3):34-47.Yan S,Zhu G Z.2013.“Mortgage Slave Effect” or “Wealth Effect”?—Property prices rose a theoretical analysis of the impact of national consumption[J].Management world,(3):34-47.(in Chinese)
• 余泳泽，张少辉.2017.城市房价、限购政策与技术创新[J].中国工业经济，(6):98-116.Yu Y Z,Zhang S H.2017.Urban property prices,restrictions and technology innovation[J].China industrial economy,(6) :98-116.(in Chinese)
• 张传勇，刘学良.2014.高校扩招对房价上涨的影响研究[J].中国人口科学，(6):107-118.Zhang C Y,Liu X L.2014.Expanding college enrolment v.s.rising house prices[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,(6):107-118.(in Chinese)
• 张莉，何晶，马润泓.2017.房价如何影响劳动力流动?[J].经济研究，52(8):155-170.Zhang L,He J,Ma R H.2017.How housing price affects labor migration?[J].Economic Research Journal,52(8):155-170.(in Chinese)
• 周文，赵方，杨飞，等.2017.土地流转、户籍制度改革与中国城市化：理论与模拟[J].经济研究，52(6):183-197.Zhou W,Zhao F,Yang F,et al.2017.Land transfer,reform of household registration system and urbanization in China:Theoretical and simulation test[J].Economic Research Journal,52(6):183-197.(in Chinese)
• 周颖刚，蒙莉娜，卢琪.2019.高房价挤出了谁?——基于中国流动人口的微观视角[J].经济研究，54(9):106-122.Zhou Y G,Meng L N,Lu Q.2019.Who are high prices crowding out?—Based on the micro perspective of China's floating population[J].Economic Research Journal,54(9):106-122.(in Chinese)
• Akbari A H,Aydede Y.2012.Effects of immigration on house prices in Canada[J].Applied Economics,44(13):1645-1658.
• Cameron G,Muellbauer J,Murphy A.2006.Was there a British house price bubble?Evidence from a regional panel[R].Oxford:University of Oxford.
• Cantoni D,Chen Y Y,Yang D Y,et al.2017.Curriculum and ideology[J].Journal of Political Economy,125(2):338-392.
• Capozza D R,Hendershott P H,Mack C,et al.2002.Determinants of real house price dynamics[R].New York:NBER.
• Iacoviello M,Minetti R.2003.Financial liberalization and the sensitivity of house prices to monetary policy:Theory and evidence[J].The Manchester School,71(1):20-34.
• Van Der Vlist A J,Czamanski D,Folmer H.2011.Immigration and urban housing market dynamics:The case of Haifa[J].The Annals of Regional Science,47(3):585-598.
• (1)根据国家统计局数据显示,2017—2019年期间,全国多个城市房价出现了反弹,其中大部分城市都发布了力度空前的人才吸引政策。
• (2)中共中央,国务院.关于积极稳妥推进户籍管理制度改革的通知.http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2012-02/23/content_2075082.htm。
• (3)中共中央,国务院.关于进一步推进户籍制度改革的意见.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-07/30/content_8944.htm。
• (4)中共成都市委办公厅,成都市人民政府办公厅.关于印发《成都实施人才优先发展战略行动计划》的通知.http://gk.chengdu.gov.cn/govInfoPub/detail.action?id=91916&tn=6。
• (5)2018年全国人口流动地图大盘点下一个鹤岗在哪里.https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2019-04-24/doc-ihvhiqax4713823.shtml.(2019-04-24)。
• (6)西安市迁入落户增长346%,户籍新政吸引人才.https://xian.qq.com/a/20170611/004991.htm。