全球化、区域贸易协定与服务贸易Globalization,Regional Trade Agreements,Service Trade
蒋芊,李雨浓,汪涛
摘要(Abstract)：
本文采用Bergstrand et al.(2015)的研究框架，纳入Anderson et al.(2018)异质性边界拓展，对含有区域贸易协定(RTAs)的结构引力模型进行了拓展。通过2000—2014年29个国家的服务贸易数据进行实证分析，旨在探究全球化和区域贸易协定对服务贸易流量的影响，并打开了异质性同一地区效应的“黑箱”。研究发现：首先，异质性同一地区效应极大吸收了全球化效应和RTAs效应：在控制异质性同一地区效应的情况下，全球化效应消失，RTAs约为20%。其次，双边天然联系变量作用的呈现波动情况，歧视性贸易成本的作用仍然没有呈现显著下降。最后，异质性同一地区效应显著受到本国制度质量的影响。本文的研究有助于理解在服务贸易中区域贸易协定与全球化的关系，并为中国的全球化战略提供政策思考。
关键词(KeyWords)： 全球化;区域贸易协定;结构引力模型;边界效应
基金项目(Foundation): 广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“广西发展战略研究院”课题(2020GDSIYB09);; 成都西南财大交子金融科技创新研究院(项目号:cgzh20210202);; 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803159)的资助
作者(Author): 蒋芊,李雨浓,汪涛
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- (1)通过加入时变固定效应来控制多边阻力的方法,可以有效纠正引力模型中的“金牌错误”(gold medal mistake),但是会吸收90%以上的进(出)口国家的个体特征和不可观测效应。因此,在使用时变固定效应的结构引力模型中加入单个国家的变量(如GDP、全球化指数)是徒劳的。更多细节见Anderson (2011)。
- (2)实际上这里使用的是边界效应的另一种设置方法,即“同一地区效应”的设置方法。更多细节见Anderson and Yotov (2010b)。
- (3)为了简便,后文将“国际相对国内贸易成本”都称为“相对贸易成本”。
- (4)计算公式为:国内贸易时定义为■,随后按人口加权方式得到人口加权的距离;■。其中,popk是指与i国进行贸易的k个国家的聚类人口总和,popl是指与j国进行贸易的l个国家的聚类人口总和,而Distkl是k聚类和i聚类的经度距离。具体见Mayer and Zignago(2011)。
- (5)其NACE代码包括:F、G45、G46、G47、H49、H50、H51、H52、H53、I、J58、J59_J60、J61、J62_J63、K64、K65、K66、L68、M69_M70、M71、M72、M73、M74_M75、N、O84、P85、Q、R_S、T、U。本文未能将各个服务行业的代码与贸易流量代码的对应上,从而丧失了更细微考察服务贸易的机会。为了详细说明这一点,OECD统计数据库在2010年开始采用了新的统计体系EBPOS2010(Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification 2010)(United,2010)(本条文献在文后文献中未体现)。而联合国服务贸易统计司未提供新的代码转变方式,即没有将ISIC4 与 EBPOS2010的统计方式对应起来,因此本文没有办法将两种统计口径的数据按照行业进行匹配。
- (6)http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp。
- (7)http://www.dartmouth.edu/～tradedb/index.php。
- (8)Silva and Tenreyro (2006)指出使用OLS估计量,会忽略詹森不等式的存在,从而得到不一致的系数估计。而使用伪泊松最大似然估计(Poission pseudo-MLE,PPML)和伽马伪似然最大估计(Gamma PML),可以一定程度上解决贸易零值问题和詹森不等式问题 (Santos Silva and Tenreyro,2010,2011)。Fally (2015)在对比OLS法、PPML估计量以及Gamma估计量中发现,使用PPML法会为加入了国内流量的引力方程提供一致的参数估计。同时,本文使用的是Larch et al.(2019)所提供的高维度PPML程序包。
- (9)用连续年份面板数据进行引力模型拟合是广受批评的,引力估计量在短时间内反应迟缓,因而会给政策效应评估带来潜在的不确定性Trefler (2004),因此,参照 (Yotov et al.,2016)的研究,以2000年为起点,使用4年为间隔。
- (10)即当国内贸易时,国内贸易距离不为零,而是按照本页脚注④的方式定义国内贸易距离。
- (11)加入国家对固定效应是引力模型中控制双边偏误的最强方式,它控制了双边贸易中所有不随时间改变而改变的因素。但是,由于多重共线性的存在,不能够同时估计所有地区随时间改变的同一地区效应;于是,在估计异质性边界时,无法加入国家对固定效应。
- (12)由于多重共线性问题,在考虑异质性同一地区效应时,回归时总是需要将一个年份作为基准。为了便于比较,总是选择将最早年份的同一地区效应作为基准,比如,在表5中将2000年的同一地区效应作为基准。
- (13)这里假设区域贸易协定较少地影响国内制度,即讨论是一种浅的贸易一体化协定,更多讨论见Maggi(2014)。
- (14)实际上深度一体化协定是一种歧视性贸易政策,但是,它对成员国内规制的要求也会降低非歧视性贸易成本。