张天华,钟泽凯,韩泽锋

• 1:华南师范大学经济与管理学院
• 2:华南市场经济研究中心
• 3:北京大学教育学院
• 4:圣路易斯华盛顿大学奥林商学院

摘要(Abstract)：

县域经济作为国民经济的基本单元,在中国的经济发展和转型过程中扮演着关键角色,但在大量研究探讨政治晋升是否激励了省市级官员发展经济的背景下,这一层级经济增长的政治动力机制仍然是一个黑箱。本文通过考察经济增长业绩是否能促进官员晋升,分析县级行政区经济增长的动力机制,并以灯光数据衡量的真实增长业绩考察政治晋升动力机制的有效性。基于1998—2013年县域的经济增长及官员晋升数据的实证研究表明:(1)以GDP衡量的增长业绩能够有效促进县委书记的进一步晋升。官员的晋升与任期内GDP平均增长率呈正相关关系;前任官员GDP经济绩效被视为当期县委书记的"标杆",县委书记的晋升与相对于前任任期内GDP平均增长率呈正相关关系。(2)以卫星灯光亮度测算的真实经济业绩并未带来县委书记的晋升。并且,无论是绝对或相对的真实经济增长业绩都未能促进官员的晋升。(3)对晋升机制的研究发现,相对于军队和企业背景,具有学校工作背景的县委书记有更大的概率晋升。此外,无论是以经济效率提升衡量的长期经济发展绩效,还是以固定资本投资提升衡量的短期经济发展绩效,都不是促进县委书记晋升的渠道。上述研究表明,虽然"经济增长驱动晋升"的假说在县级行政区是存在的,但该晋升机制只存在于以GDP为指标的考核体系中,在以卫星灯光亮度测算的真实政绩指标下,经济增长并没有促进官员的晋升。这一研究结果深刻地反映了中国县级行政区层面经济增长与官员晋升之间的关系。

关键词(KeyWords)： 卫星灯光数据;县域;经济增长;官员晋升

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 张天华主持广东省自然科学基金项目“交通基础设施建设对企业资源配置效率影响研究(2017A030313445)”;; 董志强主持国家自然科学基金面上项目中国劳动收入份额决定的微观机制:基于转型背景和企业要素收入分配视角的理论实证研究”(71473089)资助

作者(Author): 张天华,钟泽凯,韩泽锋

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2019.02.002

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