林之阳,孔东民,宁书影

• 1:同济大学经济与管理学院
• 2:华中科技大学经济学院
• 3:湖北工业大学经济与管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文考察气候变化是否影响公司层面的创新产出。利用干旱构建气候变化情景，将气候敏感型公司作为样本，本文发现干旱这一气候状况的恶化会激励企业进行创新活动，即存在“环境激励效应”。这一效应主要来源于两个因素：其一，干旱对公司经营产生不利影响，“倒逼”公司进行创新；其二，公司管理层对气候信号的捕捉有助于识别气候变化带来的机会，进而提升公司创新。此外，当子公司地理分散较低时，干旱的创新促进作用更强，这一结果体现了气候影响的区域性特征。本文从气候变化的角度为企业创新活动的研究提供了新的视角，强调了将气候风险纳入政策评估与企业决策过程的重要性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 创新;气候变化;干旱;环境激励

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金(项目编号:21ZDA010;22VRC145);; 国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71991473;71772178);; 湖北工业大学博士科研项目(XJ2021007501)的资助

作者(Author): 林之阳,孔东民,宁书影

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• (1)一些行业事实也证明了气候风险,尤其是干旱风险,“倒逼”农业相关企业进行创新。比如,孟山都公司在2009年向美国食品和药品监督管理局(U.S.Food and Drug Administration,FDA)提交了全球首例抗旱玉米的审批申请(http://insurance.hexun.com/2009-02-09/114195916.html)。又如,针对干旱导致水稻受灾严重的情况,隆平高科加紧培育抗旱水稻(http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2013-08-20/144027999418.shtml?from=www.hao10086.com)。
• (2)通过对中国国家知识产权局、欧洲专利局(EPO)和美国专利和商标局(USPTO)数据库中的专利进行人工检索后发现,我国和世界范围内有大量机构针对干旱气候开展研发活动。具体到农业相关行业,这些专利既涉及粮食和经济作物的种植和生产、畜牧发展和渔业养殖等传统意义上的农业生产范畴,也涉及农牧渔产品加工和储运等广泛意义上的农业相关生产过程。
• (3)实际上,一些省份在不同季节的干湿状况存在很大差异,而图1仅可用于解读本文样本期内各省级行政单位PDSI的整体表现。
• (4)由于数据限制,我们无法验证样本公司所有的创新产出是否都与干旱等气候因素直接相关,可能导致度量误差的问题。这个潜在的度量缺陷也是我们只关注农业相关的“气候敏感型”公司而非全行业的重要原因。“气候敏感型”公司的经营过程受气候条件的潜在影响较大,为了应对气候变化而进行创新的概率也比其他公司更高。换言之,聚焦于“气候敏感型”公司在某种程度上是我们在现有数据限制下提升变量度量准确性的一个方案。事实上,除了引言中提到的直接涉及农业和粮食生产的公司外,下游相关行业也会出于应对干旱而进行创新。比如,某酿酒公司为了应对干旱而申请了发明“一种节水的人工干预植物根域的方法”。本课题组也有数个案例支持气候变化对公司创新的激励作用,但限于篇幅无法在文中尽数呈现,留存备索。后验地说,如果被解释变量的度量误差过大以至于无法捕捉与气候相关的创新产出,则我们应无法观测到干旱对公司创新产出的显著效应,而这与后文的实证结果不符。
• (5)虽然无法获取完整的上市公司分支机构数据,但我们对子公司地理分布的考察同样表明公司的经营活动集中于总部所在地区。我们发现,与总部所在地区不同的异地子公司占全部子公司的比例仅为三分之一,可见绝大多数子公司集中于公司总部所在地。因此,我们遵循以往研究的惯例,在大部分实证检验中基于公司总部位置识别干旱的影响。在后续实证检验中,我们以多种形式探讨了异地分支机构的潜在影响,没有发现这一问题导致实证结论出现偏差的证据。
• (6)见https://www.weather.gov/riw/drought_index。
• (7)若无法找到其他行业的匹配公司,则将该公司从样本中删去。
• (8)两组公司在匹配变量上不存在显著差异,但为了节约篇幅,我们没有报告匹配变量的差异性检验。
• (9)这些关键词包括:气候,干旱,旱灾,抗旱,气温,高温,海温,降水,潮湿,湿度,缺水,厄尔尼诺现象,暖流,寒流,季风,拉尼娜现象,温度上升,空气温度,旱涝灾害,极端天气。
• (10)考虑到农业事关我国战略安全,我们还检验了在气候变化的背景下政府科技补贴推动企业创新的可能性。我们从上市公司的年报中提取其所接收的补贴的信息,并将包含关键词“专利”“科技”“技术”“研发”“创新”“知识产权”“人才”和科技专项计划如“863计划”的补助项目识别为科技补助,并实证检验政府对企业的科技补助是否会受到气候情况的影响。然而,我们并未找到相应的证据表明政府通过提供科技补助以支持企业应对气候风险。
• (11)目前我国上市公司对子公司的披露缺失严重且不规范,导致我们无法基于各子公司收入构建地理分散程度指标。据我们搜集到的子公司数据,超过80%的上市公司未规范披露其子公司的资产和收入信息。因此,我们参考García and Norli(2012)的研究,转而关注子公司的地理分布。通常认为,若上市公司在某地区开设较多子公司,则表明该地区是较为重要的业务来源地。因此,我们以上市公司子公司的地理分散度近似地度量其业务经营的地理分散程度。
• (12)以Efpa为例,创新效率的计算过程为:Efpa=公司申请并获得授权的专利数量/(0.2×之前第四年研发投入+0.4×之前第三年研发投入+0.6×之前第二年研发投入+0.8×之前第一年研发投入+当年研发投入)。Efpc的计算过程与此类似。
• (13)我们参考封志明等(2007)定义一座城市的地形起伏度:RDLS={[Max(H)-Min(H)]×[1-P(A)/A]}/500,其中,RDLS为地形起伏度;Max(H)和Min(H)分别为区域内的最高海拔与最低海拔;P(A)为区域内的平地面积(km2);A为区域总面积。25平方千米范围内的高差小于30米的区域即视为平地。
• (14)根据农业农村部发布的《2021年全国农业机械化发展统计公报》,全国农作物耕种收综合机械化率达72.03%,但畜牧养殖、水产养殖、农产品初加工、设施农业等产业机械化率分别仅为38.50%、33.50%、41.64%、42.05%。