信息技术的增长效应:来自中国制造业企业的证据Growth Effects of Computer and Information Technology in Chinese Manufacturing
陈宇羡,申广军,邹静娴
摘要(Abstract)：
现有研究对于信息技术如何促进经济增长尚无定论,本文利用企业层面数据来回答这一问题。研究发现,使用信息技术的企业增长速度更快,并且增长质量更高。我们使用不同的指标,使用新成立企业和匹配企业样本,使用工具变量方法缓解内生性问题,上述结果仍十分稳健,但在不同类型的企业间存在异质性。本文在理论上阐述了信息技术的增长效应,并进行实证检验,这对我国当前的新经济发展战略具有明确的政策含义。
关键词(KeyWords)： 信息技术;企业增长;增长质量;新经济
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金重大招标项目(14ZDB120);; 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603296);; 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(16YJC790086)的支持
作者(Author): 陈宇羡,申广军,邹静娴
DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20180315.001
参考文献(References)：
- 贾珅,申广军.2016.企业风险与劳动收入份额:来自中国工业部门的证据[J].经济研究,(5):116-129.
- 聂辉华,江艇,杨汝岱.2012.中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题[J].世界经济,(5):142-158.
- 申广军.2016.“资本-技能互补”假说:理论、验证及其应用[J].经济学(季刊),15(4):1653-1682.
- 申广军,陈斌开,杨汝岱.2016.减税能否提振中国经济?---基于中国增值税改革的实证研究[J].经济研究,(11):70-82.
- 聂辉华,江艇,杨汝岱.2012.中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题[J].世界经济,(5):142-158.
- Acemoglu D.2003.Patterns of skill premia[J].Review of Economic Studies,70(2):199-230.
- Aker J C,Mbiti I M.2010.Mobile phones and economic development in Africa[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,24(3):207-232.
- Allen F,Qian J,Qian M.2005.Law,finance,and economic growth in China[J].Journal of Financial Economics,77(1):57-116.
- Arrighetti A,Lasagni A.2013.Assessing the determinants of high-growth manufacturing firms in Italy[J].International Journal of the Economics of Business,20(2):245-67.
- Autor D H,Katz L F,Krueger A B.1998.Computing inequality:have computers changed the labor market?[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,13(4):1169-213.
- Beck T,Demirguc-Kunt A,Laeven L,et al.2008.Finance,firm size,and growth[J].Journal of Money Credit&Banking,40(7):1379-1405.
- Berger T,Frey C B.2016.Did the computer revolution shift the fortunes of U.S.cities?technology shocks and the geography of new jobs[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,57:38-45.
- Bosworth B P,Triplett J E.2007.Is the 21st century productivity expansion still in services?and what should be done about it?[EB/OL].http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2007/01/productivity-bosworth
- Brandt L,Biesebroeck J,Zhang Y F.2012.Creative accounting or creative destruction?firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,97(2):339-351.
- Bresnahan T F.1999.Computerisation and wage dispersion:an analytical reinterpretation[J].The Economic Journal,109(456):390-415.
- Cabral L.1995.Sunk costs,firm size and firm growth[J].The Journal of Industrial Economics,43(2):161-72.
- Corrado C,Lengermann P,Bartelsman E,et al.2008.Sectoral productivity in the United States:recent developments and the role of IT[J].German Economic Review,8(2):188-210.
- Evans D S.1987.The relationship between firm growth,size,and age:estimates for 100manufacturing industries[J].Journal of Industrial Economics,35(4):567-581.
- Goedhuys-Degelin M,Sleuwaegen L.2015.Human capital,innovation and the distribution of firm growth rates[R].Merit Working Papers,No.2015-013.
- Goldin C,Katz L F.1998.The origins of technology-skill complementarity[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,113(3):693-732.
- Hall B H.1987.The relationship between firm size and firm growth in the USmanufacturing sector[J].Journal of Industrial Economics,35(4),583-606.
- Jorgenson D W,Vu K.2005.Information technology and the world economy[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,107(4):631-650.
- Kaushik P D,Singh N.2004.Information technology and broad-based development:preliminary lessons from north India[J].World Development,32(4):591-607.
- Levy F,Murnane R J.2004.The new division of labor:how computers are creating the next job market[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press.
- Lopez-Garcia P,Puente S.2012.What makes a high-growth firm?a dynamic probit analysis using Spanish firm-level data[J].Small Business Economics,39(4):1029-41.
- Olley G S,Pakes A.1996.The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry[J].Econometrica,64(6):1263-1297.
- Paunov C,Rollo V.2015.Overcoming obstacles:the internet's contribution to firm development[J].The World Bank Economic Review,29(S1):S192-S204.
- Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.1983.The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrika,70(1):41-55.
- Wei S J,Xie Z,Zhang X B.2017.China's transition to a more innovative economy:progress and challenges[M]//China's New Sources of Economic Growth:Vol.2.Canberra:ANU Press:173-211.
- (1)由于科技发展迅速,对这一系列的技术在不同时期有着不同的称谓,比如最早的计算机技术、互联网技术,以及最近方兴未艾的移动互联网技术等。文献中经常统称为计算机信息技术(computer and information technology)或者信息通讯技术(information communication technology)等,本文则简称为信息技术。
- (1)关于数据的详细信息参见J.V.Biesebroeck的网站:http://feb.kuleuven.be/public/N07057/CHINA。
- (1)中国工业企业数据库没有报告企业2004年的研发支出和新产品产值,所以我们用2005年的对应指标代替。
- (1)对于影响机制的分析,我们感谢审稿人的建议。
- (1)在计算均值时,我们剔除了企业自身的影响。也就是说,我们使用的是相同城市-行业内其他企业的均值作为工具变量。我们感谢一名审稿人提供这一思路。
- (2)我们也使用其他表示增长速度和增长质量的因变量进行了实证分析,但为了节省篇幅就仅报告了这两种,其他结果如有需要请向作者索取。