魏下海,柯宬丞,余玲铮

• 1:华侨大学经济与金融学院
• 2:中山大学粤港澳发展研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

在人口老龄化加剧与人工智能浪潮的背景下，服务机器人兴起能否激发中老年劳动力市场活力已成为劳动经济学界的新兴话题。本文利用城市层面服务机器人专利申请数据和中国健康与养老追踪调查数据，考察服务机器人兴起对中老年劳动时间供给的影响。研究发现，服务机器人显著提升中老年人在劳动力市场上的时间供给，且这一效果在男性、高龄、低学历、农业户籍、所处城市就业密度大和经济发达的子样本中更为显著。机制分析表明，服务机器人通过改善中老年劳动力健康状况和减轻隔代照料负担来增加中老年劳动时间供给。本文的研究可为人工智能时代实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略提供一定的政策建议。

关键词(KeyWords)： 服务机器人;劳动时间供给;中老年劳动力市场;人口老龄化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金一般项目“就业优先导向下数字技术对我国就业的影响机制与政策路径研究”(22BJL075);; 福建省社会科学基金重点项目“人工智能对福建劳动力市场的重塑机制与包容性就业政策研究”(FJ2026A005)的资助

作者(Author): 魏下海,柯宬丞,余玲铮

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• (1)中国电子学会发布的《中国机器人产业发展报告2022》预计,2022年,我国机器人市场规模将达到174亿美元,其中工业机器人87亿美元,服务机器人65亿美元,特种机器人22亿美元。但是从全球视角来看,该报告指出服务机器人全球市场规模已经反超工业机器人,成为占比最高的机器人种类。 (2)资料来源:IFR Press Room,https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/staff-shortage-boosts-service-robots-sales-up-48。 (3)在后文稳健性检验中,将中老年劳动时间供给水平值作为因变量进行重新估计,核心结论不变。 (4)结合IFR服务机器人的定义,参考既有研究(王田苗等,2012;王亚丽等,2023),本文以服务机器人、送餐机器人、扫地机器人、清洁机器人、教育机器人、迎宾机器人、医疗机器人、手术机器人、陪护机器人、擦窗机器人、配送机器人等为关键词进行检索,确定属于服务机器人类别的专利申请数据。 (5)为检验创新产出密度指标的有效性,缓解专利数据与实际使用数据之间潜在的度量偏差,本文额外使用工业机器人应用的数据进行了相关性分析。结果发现,无论是人均库存量还是安装量,工业机器人创新产出密度指标都与其呈明显正向关系,且均达到1%显著水平。这表明,机器人创新产出密度不仅能有效反映一个地区的机器人发展水平,还能较好地体现该地区的机器人实际应用水平。从统计事实来看,两者具有较高的一致性,从而验证了本文核心解释变量度量的稳健性和有效性。 (6)本文PM2.5浓度是根据美国哥伦比亚大学社会经济数据与应用中心提供的全球PM2.5地表年浓度数据处理得到的。 (7)本文还绘制了横截面维度城市服务机器人创新产出密度均值的空间分布图,发现中国各城市的服务机器人创新产出密度存在着明显的地区性差异,形成京津冀、长三角和珠三角这三大集聚地区,并呈现出东部地区高于中西部地区的梯度规律。 (8)该结果也通过了工具变量近似外生检验(Conley et al.,2012)。此外,根据审稿专家宝贵意见,本文还参考方颖和赵扬(2011)的方法对IV外生性进行了额外检验。