杜映昕

• 1:清华大学经济管理学院经济系

摘要(Abstract)：

国家间的政治冲突是否会对两国的贸易往来造成影响?本文就已有理论与实证研究进行了回顾。对于国家间政治冲突为何会影响贸易,如何影响,已有文献提供了以下几方面解释:贸易对国家安全具有外部性;贸易限制是国家在冲突中表明坚决立场的高成本信号;国家关系是国家、企业或消费者效用中的一部分;冲突通过影响交通、市场运行等直接增加了贸易成本;冲突带来合同风险的上升。未来冲突的不确定性会使贸易参与者在政治冲击发生前就做出反应,贸易关系中的沉没成本使得贸易参与者在政治冲击发生时倾向于不做出反应。已有实证研究发现,战争、军事冲突、领土争端等不同类型的冲突会带来贸易的降低,贸易也与构建的冲突——合作程度指标相关。重大战争会对贸易有长期影响,且可能降低与第三国的贸易。最新研究基于部门或企业层面数据,涉及产品战略安全性、国家控制、消费者抵制等不同影响渠道。本文利用清华大学构建的中国与大国关系数据库,对1950一2011年中国与7个大国政治关系对贸易影响进行了初步分析,结果发现,政治关系对中国与大国间的贸易有显著影响,中国与该国政治关系越好(越差),则与该国的贸易往来越多(越少)。对于政治关系在什么条件下影响贸易,主要通过什么渠道影响,以及贸易对政治关系变化的调整可能存在的短期性,还有待未来研究进一步探索。

关键词(KeyWords)： 国际贸易;政治冲突;文献综述;中外关系

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 杜映昕

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2015.01.007

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• ①国内学者对此进行了综述,可参见郎平(2005),邝艳湘(2011)。
• ②同样也存在“政热经冷”现象:如中国与俄罗斯虽然政治关系密切,但经贸关系发展却相对滞后(周念利和黄宁,2014),政治上的紧密联系不必然意味着贸易的繁荣。
• ①现实主义者也有持贸易对冲突没有什么影响的观点,后续有许多研究尝试以新的理论弥合这两大学派的异同。
• ②自由主义者认为战争或冲突会中断或降低贸易,增加冲突的机会成本,从而可以促进两国和平,但并未对冲突减少贸易的这一前提假设做出进一步阐释。
• ①均衡价格的变化既取决于两条曲线的平移量,也取决于这两条曲线的价格弹性:需求曲线下降得越少,或其价格弹性越低(进口商越难找到该进口的替代品或供应商),均衡数量的下降越小,均衡价格上升越大;供给曲线下降得越多,或其价格弹性越高(出口商越容易找到替代的市场或买方),均衡数量的下降较大,均衡价格下降较小。
• ①Levy and Barbieri(2004)认为.根据已有实证结果,战争并不一定带来贸易的中断或显著下降.且历史上的例子也表明,在战争中仍然与敌国进行贸易确实并非罕见现象,值得对背后的因果机制做出进一步研究与解释,并对此进行了论述。
• ①他的研究结果也出现了政治关系对贸易影响不显著或影响方向相反的情况,贸易反而随着冲突而上升。他提出几种可能的驱动力,例如在维持贸易中获利而中断贸易中损失的群体可能会增加与冲突国的贸易.而在维持贸易中受损在中断贸易中获益的群体可能会减少与合作国的贸易;领导人可能会以贸易来缓解冲突,或是在冲突上升时鼓励贸易,以获取未来的相对收益;另一种可能是冲突会迫使一国答应另一国的政策要求.包括提高与之的贸易。这些驱动力随产品类型而不同.因而结果也出现了差异。
• ①Levchenko(2007)曾将不完全契约和“敲竹杠”问题引入国际贸易模型中,说明制度上的比较优势。
• ①本文使用的样本中,零贸易流量大约占总观测值的6%~9%,包括1951—1972年美国自1950年朝鲜战争爆发后对中国的贸易禁运时期;1962年中印发生边界战争之后,中印两国贸易有多年持续为零,直至1976年恢复互派大使后,两国贸易才得到恢复;1960年中苏交恶后出现的零贸易额(在20世纪50年代至70年代中苏贸易的统计数据多为缺失)。