李磊,王天宇

• 1:南开大学跨国公司研究中心
• 2:南开大学经济行为与政策模拟实验室
• 3:南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

在城市间“抢人大战”与高人力资本群体对空气污染更为敏感的背景下，本文基于2006年至2018年高校招生分数线数据，结合城市空气污染数据与城市统计数据，研究发现城市PM2.5浓度显著降低了城市内高校招生分数线，这表明城市空气污染显著抑制了准大学生报考意愿。这一结论在内生性处理与各种稳健性检验下均成立。机制分析结果表明，城市PM2.5浓度显著抑制了外企进入，刺激服务业从业人员与高校老师流出，从而降低城市吸引力与高校吸引力。进一步分析结果表明，空气污染对高校招生分数线的负面影响是长期的。本文研究得出空气污染抑制人才流入、刺激人才流出这一结论。研究结论主要有以下三个作用：一是拓展了空气污染、人才流动与高考等领域的研究边界；二是为人才流动与区域人力资本流失等问题提供新的思考方式与研究视角；三是为地方政府制定人才吸引政策与污染防治政策提供现实参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 空气污染;人才流动;高考;准大学生

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球产业智能化对我国供应链安全的影响及对策研究”（22&ZD097）的资助

作者(Author): 李磊,王天宇

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• (1)感谢匿名审稿专家对城市天气变量、贸易开放度和高校211工程、985工程与双一流建设控制变量的建议。
• (2)相关链接:http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2017-01/07/c_1120262575.htm。
• (3)第(1)列是控制了城市废气排放强度指标的基准规范回归结果,第(2)列是工具变量法回归结果;工具变量法回归结果具体信息,如一阶段回归结果,见附表1。
• (4)感谢匿名审稿专家对稳健性检验中人类活动影响逆温现象、高校招生策略内生变化、控制年份-经度固定效应和年份-纬度固定效应的建议。
• (5)第(4)列与第(5)列处理虽然剔除了异常值,但也可能过度排除了顶部考生和底部考生的选择信息。二者比基准回归分别少约0.2万和0.8万的样本量,但依旧在1%统计水平上显著。
• (6)例如,第一财经周刊于2013年6月13日发表《霾月之后,北京“老外”的权衡术》一文,提及不少外籍员工因空气污染而离开中国。虽然不能将外籍员工离开等同于外企撤离,但仍为本文研究提供一定思路,即空气污染是否抑制了外企进入,加速了外企退出。相关链接:https://www.yicai.com/news/2777054.html。
• (7)例如,查阅历年《Universum中国大学生职业倾向调查》可以发现,在大学生理想雇主排名中,跨国公司一直占据较多的名额与较高的排名。虽然跨国公司不能与外企视同,但从侧面反映出外企对大学生强大的吸引力。