消费刺激政策与中小微企业经营——基于企业经营大数据进行分析
Consumption Stimulus Policy and the Operation of SMEs: Analyze Based on Big Data of Enterprise Operation
李天一
摘要(Abstract)：
新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,中国各地政府纷纷使用消费刺激政策来刺激内需,进而带动生产端的复苏。中小微企业作为主要的获利主体,消费刺激政策对其经营的带动效果有待验证,同时各地消费券的设计方式复杂多样,何种设计方式的刺激效果更佳也有待探究。本文使用百万量级的中小微企业经营的面板数据,利用双重差分模型以及三重差分模型进行研究。实证结果表明:第一,发放消费券后中小微企业和小微企业营收分别提高了28.17%和26.99%,在住宿餐饮业中的带动效果尤为明显;同时,在消费券发放期后并不存在消费的"挤出效应"。第二,有消费门槛设置的消费券可以更充分地刺激消费;通过摇号和抢号方式发放消费券的效果均远好于通过消费获得消费券;面对特困人群发放消费券的刺激效果更强;通过工会发放消费券反而会降低消费券的刺激效果。本文的结论能够为我国未来消费刺激政策的制定提供借鉴意义。
关键词(KeyWords)： 消费券;中小微企业;设计方式
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 李天一
DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20210708.002
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- ① 数据摘自中国国家统计局网站。 (1)由于部分两两交叉项与三变量交叉项存在完全共线性,因此在本部分实证回归估计表中仅展示部分两两交叉项的回归结果。