曹成龙,王辉

• 1:北京大学光华管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

中国家庭的高储蓄行为广受学界关注，其中，低生育率导致的家庭代际结构变化是高储蓄的重要原因。近年来，中国计划生育政策逐渐放松，这是否有助于降低家庭储蓄率?本文使用2010年、2012年和2014年CFPS数据，借助“单独二孩政策”这一准自然实验，利用双重差分模型探究城镇家庭生育决策短期内对储蓄行为的影响。结果显示，政策放开对降低储蓄率的短期效果十分明显，政策适用家庭相对于非适用家庭储蓄率显著下降3.4%。政策效果的异质性研究显示，第一胎为女孩、收入水平较低的家庭储蓄率下降更明显，符合中国家庭对于子女性别偏好，以及收入对于生育意愿影响的预期。

关键词(KeyWords)： “单独二孩政策”;储蓄率;重男轻女;家庭收入;双重差分

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金（项目编号：71671007）的资助

作者(Author): 曹成龙,王辉

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20220126.003

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• (1)农村地区的家庭第一胎为女孩时允许生育二胎,Ebenstein(2010)首先称其为“1.5孩政策”。
• (2)2016年1月1日全面放开二胎影响范围更大,但因其全面放开,在研究上缺乏理想的对照组,很难得到干净的因果关系。
• (3)包括上海市、天津市、安徽省、福建省、江苏省、吉林省、辽宁省、青海省、山西省、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区。
• (4)CFPS没有覆盖西藏、青海、新疆、宁夏、内蒙古、海南、香港、澳门和台湾。
• (5)这些城镇样本中政策适用家庭占比43.54%,与石智雷和杨云彦(2014)的结果一致。
• (6)包括上海市、天津市、安徽省、福建省、江苏省、吉林省、辽宁省、青海省、山西省、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区。
• (7)我们也尝试将储蓄率下限由-0.5调整为-0.75或-1,结果仍然稳健。
• (8)参见https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/3344。
• (9)分为1～5五个等级,1代表“健康”;2代表“一般”;3代表“比较不健康”;4代表“不健康”;5代表“非常不健康”。
• (10)包括房租、内部装饰等支出。
• (11)表2作为第一张回归表格,在附表2中展示了所有的控制变量的估计系数,之后的回归表格仅展示“政策适用×政策实施”的系数,但回归中同样控制了相同的控制变量,且加入了常数项。
• (12)也有一些文献在安慰剂检验时保留了政策后的样本,如Hoberg and Moon(2017),许红梅和李春涛(2020)等。基于此,我们也尝试保留2014年的样本进行安慰剂检验,结果见附表3,主要结论与表3保持一致。
• (13)如:第一胎性别、家庭规模、家庭同住成员最大及最小年龄、户主的教育年限、年收入的对数值、总资产的对数值等。
• (14)匹配规则如下:一个政策适用家庭匹配一个政策非适用家庭,匹配时倾向得分的差异控制在0.01以内,且不允许重复匹配。
• (15)“存量家庭”指愿意生育二胎,但因为严格的计划生育政策限制而无法生育二胎,慢慢积累起来的家庭数量。
• (16)随着社会经济的发展,人们关于家庭和生育思想的变迁,即使没有计划生育政策,社会总和生育率也会下降,表现在个体家庭层面即家庭不愿意生育多个孩子甚至不愿意生育。