蒋灵多,赵晓静,简紫晴

• 1:对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

摘要(Abstract)：

存货波动是解释中国经济变动的重要变量，存货管理是企业面对外生冲击时调整生产决策的关键渠道。近年来，中国不断鼓励扩大对外开放水平，稳步推进各项对外开放政策，贸易自由化水平显著提高。鉴于此，探讨贸易自由化背景下企业的存货调整具有重要的现实意义。本文基于中国加入WTO的准自然实验和1999—2008年中国制造业企业数据，采用双重差分法研究了贸易自由化对企业非产成品存货的影响。研究发现：(1)贸易自由化显著降低了制造业企业的非产成品存货水平且结果稳健。(2)贸易自由化主要通过外来产品挤压本土企业市场需求、降低中间品购买难度两个渠道促使企业减少非产成品存货储备。(3)贸易自由化对小规模企业、非国有企业、轻工业企业和出口企业造成的影响更大。企业应积极利用贸易壁垒降低带来的发展契机，合理调整存货储备以提高企业资源利用率，进而增强企业盈利能力。

关键词(KeyWords)： 贸易自由化;市场挤压效应;原材料购买成本效应;企业存货调整

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目（72373023）;国家自然科学基金青年项目（71903029）的资助

作者(Author): 蒋灵多,赵晓静,简紫晴

参考文献(References)：

• 陈登科.2020.贸易壁垒下降与环境污染改善——来自中国企业污染数据的新证据[J].经济研究，55(12):98-114.Chen D K.2020.Trade barrier reduction and environmental pollution improvement:New evidence from firm—Level pollution data in China[J].Economic Research Journal,55(12):98-114.(in Chinese)
• 戴严科，林曙.2017.利率波动、融资约束与存货投资——来自中国制造业企业的证据[J].金融研究，(4):95-111.Dai Y K,Lin S.2017.Interest rate volatility,financial constraints,and inventory investment:Evidence from Chinese manufactural firms[J].Journal of Financial Research,(4):95-111.(in Chinese)
• 杜艳，周茂，李雨浓.2016.贸易自由化能否提高中国制造业企业资源再配置效率——基于中国加入WTO的倍差法分析[J].国际贸易问题，(9):38-49.Du Y,Zhou M,Li Y N.2016.Does trade liberalization improve the resource reallocation efficiency of Chinese manufacturing firms:Evidence based on difference-in-difference method after China's WTO accession[J].Journal of International Trade,(9):38-49.(in Chinese)
• 段文奇，景光正.2021.贸易便利化、全球价值链嵌入与供应链效率——基于出口企业库存的视角[J].中国工业经济，(2):117-135.Duan W Q,Jing G Z.2021.Trade facilitation,global value chains embedding and efficiency of enterprise supply chains—Based on the perspective of export enterprise inventory[J].China Industrial Economics,(2):117-135.(in Chinese)
• 何欢浪，蔡琦晟，章韬.2021.进口贸易自由化与中国企业创新——基于企业专利数量和质量的证据[J].经济学(季刊),21(2):597-616.He H L,Cai Q S,Zhang T.2021.Import liberalization and Chinese firms' innovation—Evidence from patent quality and quantity[J].China Economic Quarterly,21(2):597-616.(in Chinese)
• 黄小兵，黄静波.2013.异质企业、贸易成本与出口——基于中国企业的研究[J].南开经济研究，(4):111-126.Huang X B,Huang J B.2013.Heterogeneous firms,trade costs and exporting:A firm level investigation for China[J].Nankai Economic Studies,(4):111-126.(in Chinese)
• 蒋灵多，陆毅，纪珽.2019.贸易自由化是否助力国有企业去杠杆[J].世界经济，42(9):101-125.Jiang L D,Lu Y,Ji T.2019.Does trade liberalization contribute to deleveraging of SOEs[J].The Journal of World Economy,42(9):101-125.(in Chinese)
• 李超，李涵.2017.空气污染对企业库存的影响——基于我国制造业企业数据的实证研究[J].管理世界，(8):95-105.Li C,Li H.2017.The impact of air pollution on business inventories—An empirical study based on the data of China's manufacturing enterprises[J].Journal of Management World,(8):95-105.(in Chinese)
• 李方静，张静.2018.服务贸易自由化程度对企业出口决策的影响探析[J].世界经济研究，(6):44-57,108.Li F J,Zhang J.2018.The impact analysis of service liberalization on firms' export decisions[J].World Economy Studies,(6):44-57,108.(in Chinese)
• 李涵，黎志刚.2009.交通基础设施投资对企业库存的影响——基于我国制造业企业面板数据的实证研究[J].管理世界，(8):73-80.Li H,Li Z G.2009.The impact of transportation infrastructure investment on enterprise inventory:An empirical study based on panel data of manufacturing enterprises in China[J].Journal of Management World,(8):73-80.(in Chinese)
• 李雨浓，赵维，周茂，等.2020.外资管制放松如何影响企业非产成品存货调整[J].中国工业经济，(9):118-136.Li Y N,Zhao W,Zhou M,et al.2020.How the deregulation of foreign investment affects the enterprises' adjustment of non-finished product inventory[J].China Industrial Economics,(9):118-136.(in Chinese)
• 连慧君，魏浩.2023.进口竞争是否影响了中国企业出口?[J].世界经济文汇，(2):48-69.Lian H J,Wei H.2023.Does import competition affect the export of Chinese enterprises?[J].World Economic Papers,(2):48-69.(in Chinese)
• 刘竹青，盛丹.2021.贸易自由化、产品生命周期与中国企业的出口产品结构[J].经济学(季刊),21(1):263-284.Liu Z Q,Sheng D.2021.Trade liberalization,product life-cycle and export product structure of Chinese firms[J].China Economic Quarterly,21(1):263-284.(in Chinese)
• 罗奇，赵永亮.2022.贸易政策不确定性、采购前置期与企业存货调整[J].国际贸易问题，(7):87-104.Luo Q,Zhao Y L.2022.Trade policy uncertainty,procurement leading time and enterprises' adjustment of inventory[J].Journal of International Trade,(7):87-104.(in Chinese)
• 马建堂.1989.论存货波动[J].经济科学，(6):56-62.Ma J T.1989.On inventory fluctuations[J].Economic Science,(6):56-62.(in Chinese)
• 毛其淋，盛斌.2014.贸易自由化与中国制造业企业出口行为：“入世”是否促进了出口参与?[J].经济学(季刊),13(2):647-674.Mao Q L,Sheng B.2014.Trade liberalization and Chinese firms' export behavior:Dose WTO entry facilitate export participation?[J].China Economic Quarterly,13(2):647-674.(in Chinese)
• 饶品贵，岳衡，姜国华.2016.通货膨胀预期与企业存货调整行为[J].经济学(季刊),15(2):499-526.Rao P G,Yue H,Jiang G H.2016.Expected inflation and firms' inventory adjustment[J].China Economic Quarterly,15(2):499-526.(in Chinese)
• 王兵，佟仁城.2002.动态投入占用产出模型在企业库存控制中的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究，19(12):76-78.Wang B,Tong R C.2002.The application of dynamic input-occupancy-output model to inventory control in enterprise[J].Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics,19(12):76-78.(in Chinese)
• 王红建，李青原，刘放.2015.政府补贴：救急还是救穷——来自亏损类公司样本的经验证据[J].南开管理评论，18(5):42-53.Wang H J,Li Q Y,Liu F.2015.Government subsidies:Relief for the emergency or the poor?An empirical evidence from loss-making firms[J].Nankai Business Review,18(5):42-53.(in Chinese)
• 许家云，毛其淋，胡鞍钢.2017.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级：基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济，40(3):52-75.Xu J Y,Mao Q L,Hu A G.2017.Intermediate input imports and the quality upgrading of export product:Evidence from Chinese manufacturing enterprises[J].The Journal of World Economy,40(3):52-75.(in Chinese)
• 余淼杰，袁东.2016.贸易自由化、加工贸易与成本加成——来自我国制造业企业的证据[J].管理世界，(9):33-43,54.Yu M J,Yuan D.2016.Trade liberalization,processing trade and mark-up—Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms[J].Journal of Management World,(9):33-43,54.(in Chinese)
• 余淼杰，智琨.2016.进口自由化与企业利润率[J].经济研究，51(8):57-71.Yu M J,Zhi K.2016.Import liberalization and firm profitability[J].Economic Research Journal,51(8):57-71.(in Chinese)
• 翟光宇，王晓晖.2020.通货膨胀预期与企业存货投资行为——基于行业与企业融资约束视角的实证分析[J].国际金融研究，(10):86-96.Zhai G Y,Wang X H.2020.Expected inflation and firms' behavior of inventory investment—Empirical analysis based on industry and financing constraints[J].Studies of International Finance,(10):86-96.(in Chinese)
• 张国峰，王永进，李坤望.2019.贸易自由化对制造业企业现金储蓄的影响——预防性动机还是投资挤压?[J].金融研究，(9):19-38.Zhang G F,Wang Y J,Li K W.2019.The effect of trade liberalization on manufacturing firms' cash savings:Precautionary savings motive or investment extrusion?[J].Journal of Financial Research,(9):19-38.(in Chinese)
• 张杰.2015.进口对中国制造业企业专利活动的抑制效应研究[J].中国工业经济，(7):68-83.Zhang J.2015.Study on the inhibitory effect of imports on the patent activities of China's manufacturing enterprises[J].China Industrial Economics,(7):68-83.(in Chinese)
• 张勋，王旭，万广华，等.2018.交通基础设施促进经济增长的一个综合框架[J].经济研究，53(1):50-64.Zhang X,Wang X,Wan G H,et al.2018.A unified framework of road infrastructure's growth effect[J].Economic Research Journal,53(1):50-64.(in Chinese)
• 周申，海鹏.2020.中间品贸易自由化与企业间工资差距[J].财贸经济，41(12):147-162.Zhou S,Hai P.2020.Input trade liberalization and wage gap between firms[J].Finance & Trade Economics,41(12):147-162.(in Chinese)
• 祝树金，钟腾龙，李仁宇.2018.中间品贸易自由化与多产品出口企业的产品加成率[J].中国工业经济，(1):41-59.Zhu S J,Zhong T L,Li R Y.2018.Input trade liberalization and product markup of multi-product exporters[J].China Industrial Economics,(1):41-59.(in Chinese)
• Alessandria G,Kaboski J,Midrigan V.2010.Inventories,lumpy trade,and large devaluations[J].American Economic Review,100(5):2304-2339.
• Alimov A.2014.Product market competition and the value of corporate cash:Evidence from trade liberalization[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,25:122-139.
• Autor D,Dorn D,Hanson G H,et al.2020.Foreign competition and domestic innovation:Evidence from US patents[J].American Economic Review:Insights,2(3):357-374.
• Bas M,Strauss-Kahn V.2015.Input-trade liberalization,export prices and quality upgrading[J].Journal of International Economics,95(2):250-262.
• Bekaert G,Wang X Z.2010.Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium[J].Economic Policy,64(25):755-806.
• Blinder A S ,Maccini L J.1991.Taking stock:A critical assessment of recent research on inventories[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,5(1):73-96.
• Bloom N,Romer P M,Terry S J,et al.2013.A trapped-factors model of innovation[J].American Economic Review,103(3):208-213.
• Bloom N,Draca M,Van Reenen J.2016.Trade induced technical change?The impact of Chinese imports on innovation,IT and productivity[J].The Review of Economic Studies,83(1):87-117.
• Brandt L,Van Biesebroeck J,Zhang Y F.2012.Creative accounting or creative destruction?Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,97(2):339-351.
• Caglayan M,Maioli S,Mateut S.2012.Inventories,sales uncertainty,and financial strength[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,36(9):2512-2521.
• Caselli F,Koren M,Lisicky M,et al.2020.Diversification through trade[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,135(1):449-502.
• Chen Z Y,Zhang J,Zheng W P.2017.Import and innovation:Evidence from Chinese firms[J].European Economic Review,94:205-220.
• Feenstra R C,Weinstein D E.2010.Globalization,markups,and the U.S.price level[R].Cambridge:NBER.
• Goldberg P,Khandelwal A,Pavcnik N,et al.2009.Trade liberalization and new imported inputs[J].American Economic Review,99(2):494-500.
• Goldberg P K,Khandelwal A K,Pavcnik N,et al.2010.Imported intermediate inputs and domestic product growth:Evidence from India[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,125(4):1727-1767.
• Hall R E.1999.Aggregate job destruction and inventory liquidation[R].NBER Working Paper,No.6912.
• Hay G A.1970.Production,price,and inventory theory[J].The American Economic Review,60(4):531-545.
• Hombert J,Matray A.2018.Can innovation help U.S.manufacturing firms escape import competition from China?[J].The Journal of Finance,73(5):2003-2039.
• Hu A G,Liu Z N.2014.Trade liberalization and firm productivity:Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries[J].Review of International Economics,22(3):488-512.
• Li H,Li Z G.2013.Road investments and inventory reduction:Firm level evidence from China[J].Journal of Urban Economics,76:43-52.
• Liu Q,Qiu L D.2016.Intermediate input imports and innovations:Evidence from Chinese firms' patent filings[J].Journal of International Economics,103:166-183.
• Lu Y,Yu L H.2015.Trade liberalization and markup dispersion:Evidence from China's WTO accession[J].American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,7(4):221-253.
• Oke A,Szwejczewski M.2005.The relationship between UK manufacturers' inventory levels and supply,internal and market factors[J].International Journal of Production Economics,93-94:151-160.
• ?eker M,Rodriguez-Delgado D,Ulu M F.2015.Imported intermediate goods and product innovation:Evidence from India[R].Ankara:Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
• Shirley C,Winston C.2004.Firm inventory behavior and the returns from highway infrastructure investments[J].Journal of Urban Economics,55(2):398-415.
• Wang Y,Liu X W,Li X.2013.A model of China's state capitalism[R].Society for Economic Dynamics,Meeting Papers.No.853.
• (1)过期风险和降价风险需要结合行业特点分析,与保质期相连的行业需要承担更大的过期风险,技术迭代较快的行业需要承担更多的降价风险。
• (2)Blinder和Maccini(1991)的研究表明美国企业库存中 80%以上为非产成品库存;本文通过计算得出,在1999—2008年中国制造业企业的非产品库存占比也达到了 64.33%。
• (3)具体条款来自《中国加入世界贸易组织议定书附件8:第152号减让表》。
• (4)浙江、上海、山东、江苏、天津、广东、辽宁、福建、河北、广西、海南为沿海地区,其他为内陆地区。
• (5)四位行业代码目录参照国家统计局 2002 年《国民经济行业分类》国家标准(GB/T 4754—2002)。
• (6)为尽量保留原有观测值,文中将非产成品存货规模加1之后再做对数处理。
• (7)数据库链接:http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx
• (8)企业规模用ln(企业从业人员数)衡量、出口强度采用ln(出口交货值+1/企业总资本)表示、资本密集度采用ln(固定资产合计/企业雇佣人数)表示、企业年龄采用ln(数据年份-企业成立年份+1)表示。
• (9)具体分类标准参照特征事实分析部分。
• (10)具体分类标准参照特征事实分析部分。