任皓

• 1:湖南大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

中央政府政策不确定性是造成宏观经济波动的重要因素，何以应对日益增长的政策不确定性是地方政府治理能力现代化的重要体现。基于组织理论的研究，构建政府间网络联系是地方政府应对中央政府经济政策不确定性的可能策略选择。本文利用2005—2019年省委书记异地考察作为政府间网络的代理变量对上述理论进行了实证检验，结果表明：(1)省委书记异地考察是构建地方政府间网络的有效形式，中央政府经济政策不确定性显著提高了省委书记异地考察交流频率；(2)地方政府不确定性应对选择具有异质性，不具有横向府际联系的地方政府以及国家能力更强的地方政府更可能选择加强与其他地方政府的联系以应对中央政府经济政策不确定性；(3)省委书记异地考察正向调节了经济政策不确定性对于企业创新的影响，验证了政府间网络对于应对不确定性的积极治理效能。

关键词(KeyWords)： 经济政策不确定性;异地考察;政府间网络;治理效能

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方政府间非正式合作对国内市场一体化的影响:因果识别、机制分析与对策研究”(项目编号:72104074)的资助

作者(Author): 任皓

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)本文的研究对象为全国31个省级行政区划单位(不包括港澳台)。为了便于表述,省委书记、直辖市市委书记以及自治区党委书记统称为省委书记。
• (2)“不确定性”关键词包括“不确定、不明确、不明朗、未明、难料、难以预计、难以估计、难以预测、难以预料、未知”;“经济”关键词包括“经济、商业”;“政策”关键词包括“财政、货币、证监会、银保监会、财政部、人民银行、国家发展和改革委员会、开放、改革、商务部、法律、法规、税收、国债、政府债务、央行、外经贸、关税、财政赤字”。
• (3)主要包括2010年上海世博会期间各省省委书记赴上海出席的本省活动周仪式。
• (4)主要包括四类年度多边会谈,即长三角地区领导人会谈、中部六省区领导人参与到中部论坛、东北四省区合作行政首长联席会以及泛珠三角区域合作行政首长联席会。
• (5)限于篇幅原因,省委书记异地考察网络图没有展示,如有需要可以向作者索取。
• (6)772次省委书记府际交流共包含1519份新闻报道,其中747次考察交流活动的双边报道,25次只搜集到单边报道,限于篇幅原因词频云图没有展示,如有需要可以向作者索取。
• (7)https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-07/24/content_5213043.htm。