陈卓,陈珂琪,李洁

• 1:清华大学五道口金融学院
• 2:上海交通大学上海高级金融学院

摘要(Abstract)：

2020年初暴发的新冠肺炎疫情严重冲击了人民生命安全和经济社会发展。因此,深入理解影响新冠病毒(COVID-19)传播能力和致病性的因素对于高效的常态化防疫至关重要。本文利用中国289个城市的数据探究了空气污染在新冠病毒传播中的作用,发现:若疫情暴发前空气质量由优降至良,新冠病毒感染人数将增加22%,累计死亡病例增加11.2%,疫情持续时间延长4天;疫情期间短期空气污染对一个潜伏期后新冠病毒传播和致病性的加剧作用更为显著;空气污染对新冠病毒的影响集中在高出行强度、高温度、高湿度地区;利用工具变量法,本文建立起空气污染加剧新冠疫情的因果关系。本文的结果表明,继续加强生态环境保护符合疫情防控工作中科学防治、精准施策的总体要求,有利于打赢疫情防控阻击战,推动卫生健康事业和经济社会高质量发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 新型冠状病毒(COVID-19);空气污染;空气质量指数(AQI);环境保护

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金专项项目“重大突发公共卫生事件对我国经济高质量发展的影响及对策”(72042011);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903124)的资助;; 自然科学基金重大项目(71790605)

作者(Author): 陈卓,陈珂琪,李洁

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2021.03.004

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• (1)利用其他国家数据研究城市封闭、居家隔离、社交距离等因素影响新冠疫情严重程度的研究还包括Allcott et al.(2020)、Alvarez et al.(2020)、Berger et al.(2020)、Borjas (2020)、Chiou and Tucker(2020)、Jones et al.(2020),探究政府在重大公共卫生事件中应急管理的文章包括Briscese et al.(2020)、Pathak et al.(2020),基于SIR流行病学模型加入经济学要素的理论研究包括Atkeson(2020)、Stock(2020)。
• (2)Setti et al.(2020)对意大利空气污染样本进行分析,发现空气污染物颗粒上存在新冠病毒。Becchetti et al.(2020)和Conticini et al.(2020)使用意大利的数据发现新冠疫情严重程度与空气质量正相关,Wu et al.(2020)在美国的数据中也发现了类似的结论。
• (3)http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2017-10-18/doc-ifymvuyt4098830.shtml
• (4)其他关于新冠疫情影响的研究还包括经济不确定性的增大(Baker et al.,2020a)、个人对生产恢复与疫情防控的选择(Li et al.,2020)、社交距离与居家工作(Dingel and Neiman,2020)、疫情影响的历史经验(Fan et al.,2016;Correia et al.,2020)。同时,一系列的近期研究讨论了新冠疫情的宏观理论和实证检验,包括Eichenbaum et al.(2020)、Guerrieri et al.(2020)、Hong et al.(2020)、Huang et al.(2020)、Jordà et al.(2020)、Ludvigson et al.(2020)、刘世锦等(2020)。
• (5)2月底,疫情已得到基本控制,复工复产开始稳步推进。3月1日,武汉首家方舱医院休舱,武汉定点医院、方舱医院、隔离治疗点全部实现“床等人”(http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-03/02/c_1125650482.htm)。3月4日,全国21省区市下调应急响应级别(https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1660241556556928187&wfr=spider&for=pc)。这表明3月份之后,本土疫情传播已明显减缓。在传染源被严格隔离、病毒传播途径被有力阻断的情况下,空气污染等其他因素对疫情传播的影响也将受限。因此,本文在主要分析中以2月29日为样本结束日期。在3.5稳健性分析中,如果将样本结束日期延长至3月31日,本文结论依然成立。
• (6)数据来源:http://www.mee.gov.cn/
• (7)根据MEEC的分类,空气质量指数中的空气污染总体上按照以下七个类别增加:(1)空气质量指数低于50时为优秀(空气质量);(2)空气质量指数在50至100之间为良;(3)空气质量指数在101～150之间,属于轻微污染;(4)空气质量指数在151～200之间,属于轻度污染;(5)空气质量指数在201至250之间,属于中度污染;(6)空气质量指数在201至250之间,重度污染;(7)空气质量指数高于300,污染严重。
• (8)AQI前回归系数的经济含义为:空气质量指数变动百分比对疫情持续天数的影响。是否对疫情持续时长这一变量进行对数化处理不影响本文在实证分析中的结论。
• (9)考虑到疫情防控的严格程度也是影响新冠病毒传播的重要因素,且公共卫生响应级别和防疫措施部署基本是在省级层面开展,为控制疫情防控相关因素对COVID-19传播的影响,本文在省级层面施加固定效应,并且通过加入城市层面的宏观变量来控制城市层面有可能影响疫情传播的主要因素。
• (10)我们还选择了在秦淮南北的所有城市进行分析,工具变量结果依然与基准回归一致。由于篇幅所限,此结果没有列出,如有兴趣可向作者索取。
• (11)数据来源:https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/M2I6NPANA_5.12.4/summary
• (12)由于1月24日武汉实施“封城”之前,已有较多病例传播至邻近城市,如果某城市有这些武汉邻近城市的人员流入,该城市内也有可能发生疫情传播。为更好衡量国内其他城市对感染源的暴露,我们以湖北迁入强度(IMHB)为指标来分析交互效应。
• (13)国务院新闻办公室报道:http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/wqfbh/42311/42816/zy42820/Document/1676487/1676487.htm