高明,李德龙,施雨水

• 1:北京大学经济学院
• 2:圭尔夫大学经济与金融系
• 3:加州大学欧文分校商学院金融系

摘要(Abstract)：

本文在先前文献的基础上,考虑到二元体制对中国城乡收入差距的决定性意义,引入城镇内收入差距的概念。文章运用中国31个省级行政单位1991—2008年的面板数据,分别对金融发展与城乡间、城镇内收入差距之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,不论是城乡间还是城镇内,金融发展对收入差距的影响均存在倒U型的库兹涅茨效应。基于1997—2012年城乡财产性收入数据的研究也具有一致性。本文实证结果支持了Greenwood and Jovanovic(1990)所提出的门槛理论,即收入差距的扩大并非因为金融发展不具有正外部性,而是因为贫困者无法享受到此类福利。本文建议相关的制度设计应更加关注农村居民和低收入者。

关键词(KeyWords)： 金融发展;收入差距;库兹涅茨效应;二元体制

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(编号:71703004);; 中国博士后科学基金(编号:2014M560856);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;; 北京大学经济学院中青年教师科研种子基金对本研究的资助

作者(Author): 高明,李德龙,施雨水

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.2018.03.006

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• (1)与之对应的是“乡村内收入差距(income disparity within rural areas)”。但一方面,中国乡村区域的金融发展非常缓慢,远较城镇落后,不是研究金融发展与收入差距的适用样本;另一方面,各省关于乡村收入分配的数据统计标准差异很大,且样本缺失严重,暂时不具备实证研究的条件。
• (1)学界普遍认为,城乡收入差距是中国收入差距的重要组成部分;世界银行报告也指出,中国50%以上的收入差距可以被城乡差距所解释(Atinc,1997;Yang,1999;章奇等,2004;陆铭和陈钊,2004;叶志强等,2011)。
• (1)相关的实证研究包括Hubbard and Palia(1995)、Huo(1997)、Demirgü9-Kunt and Maksmovic(1998)、Rajan and Zingales(1998)、Black and Strahan(2002)、Beck et al.(2005,2008)、Klapper et al.(2006)、Cotler and Woodruff(2008),De Mel et al.(2008)、Demirgü9-Kunt and Levine(2009)、Kerr and Nanda(2009)等。
• (1)如章奇等(2004)、陆铭和陈钊(2004)、叶志强等(2011)。英文文献中,Clarke et al.(2006)采用了随机效应模型,因为回归模型中包含了不随时间变化的虚拟变量,致使固定效应估计失效。
• (2)本文样本的截面跨度为31,时间跨度为18,仍可认为是一个短面板。故,不着重考虑面板时间序列特征。
• (1)金融发展缩小收入差距的关键机制,在于金融市场和金融中介的发展使得低收入者能够获得更多的经济机会,如投融资机会、成为企业家机会(包含自雇劳动和自营工商业)等。银行体系的发展可以促进金融接触(Financial Access),这已被众多文献所证明。就本文而言,银行贷款总额占GDP比重的增大意味着更多的借贷机会,即意味着更多的经济机会。这对于城市和农村具有相同的效果。
• (1)此构造由陈宗胜于1994年提出(《经济发展中的收入分配》,上海人民出版杜),最初只包含农业—工业的二元对比,彭建刚和李关政(2006)通过引入第三产业将其扩展为农业—非农业二元对比。
• (2)对于名义值与实际值之间的差异,作者尝试过三种调整方式:GDP per capita Deflator、GDP Deflator和CPI。发现通过前两种方式计算出来的调整因子相差在1%以内,与第三种方式相差在10%以内。考虑到经济含义以及数据准确性,本文采用了第一种方式计算得到的人均实际GDP。
• (1)本文也尝试了其他指标。樊纲等(2010)编制的“信贷资金分配市场化”(1997—2007)指标衡量了金融机构贷款中非国有企业贷款所占比重,该指标得分越高表示金融市场化程度越深,亦即民营企业和民营企业家获得融资的机会越大。本文以其替代“银行贷款总额/GDP”来衡量金融发展。结果显示,该变量一次项系数显著为负,二次项系数不显著,即金融发展有助于缩小城乡收入差距。考虑到该指标的样本期间为1997—2007年,其实证结果与运用1991—2008年样本得到的倒U型关系具有一致性。
• (1)由于篇幅所限,正文并未报告稳健性检验的细节。相关结果请见附录。
• (1)偏向穷人的政策可能意味着更高的逆向选择和道德风险,会导致社会整体效率的降低(Aghion and Bolton,1997;Piketty,1997;Bardhan,2000)。