高全胜,陈会玲

• 1:武汉轻工大学经济学院
• 2:湖北县域经济发展研究中心
• 3:湖北省粮食经济研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

在提出长寿通胀概念的基础上，以养老金精算是否平衡为基础，本文建立了连续型生命周期跨期迭代模型，以研究长寿通胀对养老保险体系稳健性的影响机制。利用退休激励效应、财富收入效应和年龄结构效应，本文探讨了长寿通胀对缴费率、退休年龄、待遇给付水平和养老金缺口等制度参量冲击的影响特征。结果发现：在精算平衡下，长寿通胀冲击的效果主要受到人口结构因素的影响；在精算不平衡下，长寿通胀冲击的效果主要受到系统内部机制设计的影响。通过对养老金流动性指数进行离散分解，对中国基本养老保险体系的评估发现：长寿通胀对养老保险体系充足性、稳健性和可持续性影响分别来自财富收入效应、通胀调节效应和人口结构效应。对长寿通胀冲击的风险分担绩效评估表明：在长寿通胀冲击的风险缓释手段中，需要由养老金缴费人分担的份额要超过由受益人承担的份额。

关键词(KeyWords)： 长寿通胀;基本养老保险体系;稳健性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金项目“供给侧结构性‘堵点’对粮食安全保障体系稳健性影响研究”(项目编号:20BGL163)的资助

作者(Author): 高全胜,陈会玲

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• (1)式(10)的证明可以向作者索取。