范庆泉,储成君,刘净然,张铭毅

• 1:首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院
• 2:生态环境部环境规划院
• 3:国家开发银行扶贫金融事业部

摘要(Abstract)：

本文构建了一个包括能源消耗排放污染和企业具有污染治理机制的理论研究框架,分析环境规制推动下产业升级对雾霾污染的综合影响状况,并基于2007—2018年省际PM_(2.5)浓度的卫星监测数据,采用面板门限模型,评估产业升级对雾霾治理的非线性影响效果。理论研究发现,环境规制政策是企业进行治污投入的必要条件,也是实现单位GDP能耗下降的关键因素;随着环境规制政策的执行力度不断加大,产业升级对雾霾治理的效果愈加明显。实证研究表明,在产业升级的初期阶段,工业经济仍然是造成雾霾污染的关键因素;随着产业升级水平的不断提升,工业经济中新兴产业的比重持续增加,对雾霾污染的影响系数显著下降,尤其是沿海地区,清洁产业的污染减排量已经超过了传统行业的污染排放增量,使得环境空气质量得到了明显改善,这对于加强政府污染防治的战略定力和制定新一轮的环境规制政策都具有重要的参考价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 环境规制;产业升级;雾霾治理;单位GDP能耗

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 北京市社会科学基金项目“京津冀大气污染源解析、防治效果评价及区域联防补偿机制研究”(批准号:18YJC016)的资助

作者(Author): 范庆泉,储成君,刘净然,张铭毅

DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20201214.001

参考文献(References)：

• 杜龙政,赵云辉,陶克涛,等.2019.环境规制、治理转型对绿色竞争力提升的复合效应——基于中国工业的经验证据[J].经济研究,54(10):106-120.Du L Z,Zhao Y H,Tao K T,et al.2019.Compound effects of environmental regulation and governance transformation in enhancing green competitiveness[J].Economic Research Journal,54(10):106-120.(in Chinese)
• 范庆泉,周县华,张同斌.2016.动态环境税外部性、污染累积路径与长期经济增长——兼论环境税的开征时点选择问题[J].经济研究,51(8):116-128.Fan Q Q,Zhou X H,Zhang T B.2016.Externalities of dynamic environmental taxation,paths of accumulative pollution and long-term economic growth[J].Economic Research Journal,51(8):116-128.(in Chinese)
• 范庆泉,张同斌.2018.中国经济增长路径上的环境规制政策与污染治理机制研究[J].世界经济,41(8):171-192.Fan Q Q,Zhang T B.2018.A study of environmental regulations and pollution abatement mechanism on China's economic growth path[J].The Journal of World Economy,41(8):171-192.(in Chinese)
• 黄寿峰.2017.财政分权对中国雾霾影响的研究[J].世界经济,40(2):127-152.Huang S F.2017.A study of impacts of fiscal decentralization on smog pollution[J].The Journal of World Economy,40(2):127-152.(in Chinese)
• 李金珂,曹静.2017.集中供暖对中国空气污染影响的实证研究[J].经济学报,4(4):138-150.Li J K,Cao J.2017.Empirical analysis of the effect of central heating on air pollution in China[J].China Journal of Economics,4(4):138-150.(in Chinese)
• 马丽梅,张晓.2014.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J].中国工业经济,(4):19-31.Ma L M,Zhang X.2014.The spatial effect of China's haze pollution and the impact from economic change and energy structure[J].China Industrial Economics,(4):19-31.(in Chinese)
• 潘文卿,李子奈.2007.中国沿海与内陆间经济影响的反馈与溢出效应[J].经济研究,42(5):68-77.Pan W Q,Li Z N.2007.Feedback and spillover effects between coastal and non-coastal regions of China[J].Economic Research Journal,42(5):68-77.(in Chinese)
• 邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.2016.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,51(9):73-88.Shao S,Li X,Cao J H,et al.2016.China's economic policy choices for governing smog pollution based on spatial spillover effects[J].Economic Research Journal,51(9):73-88.(in Chinese)
• 邵帅,李欣,曹建华.2019.中国的城市化推进与雾霾治理[J].经济研究,54(2):148-165.Shao S,Li X,Cao J H.2019.Urbanization promotion and haze pollution governance in China[J].Economic Research Journal,54(2):148-165.(in Chinese)
• 宋弘,孙雅洁,陈登科.2019.政府空气污染治理效应评估——来自中国“低碳城市”建设的经验研究[J].管理世界,35(6):95-108.Song H,Sun Y J,Chen D K.2019.Assessment for the effect of government air pollution control policy:Empirical evidence from “low-carbon city” construction in China[J].Management World,35(6):95-108.(in Chinese)
• 童玉芬,王莹莹.2014.中国城市人口与雾霾:相互作用机制路径分析[J].北京社会科学(5):4-10.Tong Y F,Wang Y Y.2014.The interaction mechanism of urban population and haze in China[J].Social Science of Beijing,(5):4-10.(in Chinese)
• 王鹏,谢丽文.2014.污染治理投资、企业技术创新与污染治理效率[J].中国人口·资源与环境,24(9):51-58.Wang P,Xie L W.2014.Pollution control investment,enterprise technical innovation and pollution control efficiency[J].China Population Resources and Environment,24(9):51-58.(in Chinese)
• 许和连,邓玉萍.2012.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界(2):36-49.Xu H L,Deng Y P.2012.Does FDI cause environmental pollution in China?—A spatial econometric study based on provincial panel data in China[J].Management World,(2):36-49.(in Chinese)
• 杨继生,徐娟,吴相俊.2013.经济增长与环境和社会健康成本[J].经济研究,42(12):17-29.Yang J S,Xu J,Wu X J.2013.Income growth,environmental cost and health problems[J].Economic Research Journal,48(12):17-29.(in Chinese)
• 张华,冯烽.2019.绿色高铁:高铁开通能降低雾霾污染吗?[J].经济学报,6(3):114-147.Zhang H,Feng F.2019.Green high-speed railway:Does high-speed railway reduce haze pollution?[J] China Journal of Economics,6(3):114-147.(in Chinese)
• 张军,章元.2003.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究(7):35-43.Zhang J,Zhang Y.2003.Recalculating the capital of China and a review of Li and Tang's article[J].Economic Research Journal,(7):35-43.(in Chinese)
• Acemoglu D,Aghion P,Bursztyn L,et al.2012.The environment and directed technical change[J].American Economic Review,102(1):131-166.
• Acemoglu D,Akcigit U,Hanley D,et al.2016.Transition to clean technology[J].Journal of Political Economy,124(1):52-103.
• Aghion P,Dechezleprêtre A,Hémous D,et al.2016.Carbon taxes,path dependency,and directed technical change:Evidence from the auto industry[J].Journal of Political Economy,124(1):1-51.
• Chakravorty U,Leach A,Moreaux M.2012.Cycles in nonrenewable resource prices with pollution and learning-by-doing[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,36(10):1448-1461.
• Gehrsitz M.2017.The effect of low emission zones on air pollution and infant health[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,83:121-144.
• Guan D B,Su X,Zhang Q,et al.2014.The socioeconomic drivers of China's primary PM2.5 emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,9(2):024010.
• Han L J,Zhou W Q,Li W F,et al.2014.Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality:A case of fine particles (PM2.5) in Chinese cities[J].Environmental Pollution,194:163-170.
• Hansen B E.2000.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,68(3):575-603.
• Heutel G.2012.How should environmental policy respond to business cycles?Optimal policy under persistent productivity shocks[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,15(2):244-264.
• Keller W,Levinson A.2002.Pollution abatement costs and foreign direct investment inflows to U.S.States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,84(4):691-703.
• Krysiak F C.2011.Environmental regulation,technological diversity,and the dynamics of technological change[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,35(4):528-544.
• List J A,Co C Y.2000.The effects of environmental regulations on foreign direct investment[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,40(1):1-20.
• Pang A,Shaw D.2011.Optimal emission tax with pre-existing distortions[J].Environmental Economics and Policy Studies,13(2):79-88.
• Poon J P H,Casas I,He C F.2006.The impact of energy,transport,and trade on air pollution in China[J].Eurasian Geography and Economics,47(5):568-584.
• (1)本文将产业升级定义为传统产业的能源消费结构优化以及新兴清洁产业发展,以低污染、高效率、高质量为典型特征的新经济发展模式。
• (2)2015年我国开始公布338个城市的环境空气质量状况;因莱芜市并入济南市,故2019年城市数量由338个变为337 个。
• (3)沿海地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、上海、江苏、浙江、福建和广东共10个省份,考虑海南的数据指标特征与内陆地区更为接近,因此将其划分为内陆地区;内陆地区包括云南、内蒙古、吉林、四川、宁夏、安徽、山西、广西、新疆、江西、河南、海南、湖北、湖南、甘肃、贵州、重庆、陕西、青海和黑龙江,共20个省份。
• (4)本文的门限检验和实证估计都是使用Stata13.1统计软件操作的,命令名称是xthreg。