外资进入与省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入——新发展格局下的理论与经验分析Foreign Direct Investment and Provincial National and Global Dual Value Chain Embedding——The Theoretical and Empirical Analysis under the New Development Paradigm
陈李强,黄晓燕,张玥
摘要(Abstract):
外资对构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局至关重要。本文从马克思主义政治经济学理论和大国发展经济学视角出发,分析了外资在畅通国内大循环和深度融入国际外循环体系中的重要作用。此外,文章基于2007—2017年30个省域贸易增加值分解数据,揭示了省域国内国际双重价值链关联特征,并进一步实证检验了外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入的影响和作用机制,并拓展了制度质量和信息化水平的分析情境。研究发现:第一,总体上,各省域对国内价值链和全球价值链的嵌入程度具有显著异质性。外资的进入提升了省域在国内国际双重价值链中的嵌入程度,且国际资本的进入在推动国内大循环构建与发展的同时更能推动国内各省域同国际外循环的价值链分工合作。第二,机制分析发现,外资进入主要通过生产率效应和示范带动效应促进省域同全球价值链的关联,以及通过外部冲击效应提升省域对国内价值链的嵌入程度。第三,异质性分析表明,外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链关联的影响在东中西部间存在明显的地理区域差异,且在“一带一路”倡议提出以后,外资对省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入的促进效应得到了进一步提升。第四,进一步拓展制度和信息化情境分析发现,制度质量和信息化水平的提升能够正向调节外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链关联的作用效应。此外,基于制度质量的二分法,产权制度和契约制度在激励外资与省域双重价值链关联关系的强度方面存在明显差异。
关键词(KeyWords): 外商直接投资;国内价值链;全球价值链;双重价值链嵌入;统一大市场
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金青年项目“区域价值链视角下推动‘一带一路’建设的产业选择与合作路径研究”(21CJL030)的资助
作者(Author): 陈李强,黄晓燕,张玥
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- (1)外商投资企业注册登记数量包括外资企业及其在中国境内的分支机构。
- (2)遵循已有研究的定义,本文也将国内一省份对其他省份的出口称为省际调出,而将一省份对他国的出口称为出口贸易。
- (3)参见马克思恩格斯文集(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2009:562.
- (4)参见资本论(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2018:283.
- (5)参见马克思恩格斯全集(第30卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1995:521.
- (6)参见马克思恩格斯文集(第1卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2009:756
- (7)省域嵌入世界投入产出表表式参见附录1。
- (8)基于数据可获得性考虑,本文分析不包括台湾省、香港、澳门和西藏四个省级行政区域。
- (9)借鉴张华(2016)的研究,本文采用各省贪污贿赂、渎职侵权案件数来衡量腐败程度,数据来源于《中国检察年鉴》及各省市人民检察院工作报告。
- (10)数据来源于各省统计年鉴。
- (11)数据来源于马克数据网,数据测算参考了颜鹏飞和王兵(2004)、郭庆旺等(2005)、章祥荪和贵斌威(2008)的研究。
- (12)数据来源于各省统计年鉴。
- (13)此处,外审专家指出外资进入规模流量(FDI)的一部分即为跨国公司在华新设立的子公司或分支机构所形成的投资流量,因此借鉴外审专家的建议,将外资进入规模滞后一期来模仿本期新进外企受上期FDI的示范与吸引,以体现示范吸引过程。
- (14)数据来源于马克数据网,数据测算参考了陆铭和陈钊(2009)的研究。
- (15)常见的关于各国制度质量测度的数据来源有四个:美国传统基金会和《华尔街日报》联合发布的经济自由度指数(EFI)、政治风险服务集团(PRS Group)出版的国际国别风险指南(ICRG)、世界经济论坛发布的全球竞争力指数(GCI),以及世界银行的全球治理指数(WGI)。
- (16)王小鲁等(2021)编制的市场化指数中的两个一级指标“政府与市场关系”和“市场中介组织的发育和法制环境”,其构造理念与Acemoglu and Johnson(2005)对产权制度和契约制度的界定具有很高的契合度,因此,本文与杨继东和杨其静(2020)一样,以这两类指标分别作为各省域产权制度(Q■)和契约制度(Q■)质量的代理变量。
- (17)国家统计局统计科学研究所编制的信息化发展指数(包括基础设施、产业技术、应用消费、知识支撑和发展效果5个信息化细分指标)作为信息化水平的代理变量更为精确,但该指标2013年以后数据缺失,故借鉴刘军等(2020)的方法测度各省域的信息化发展指数为各省域信息化水平的代理变量。